Global threat forecast 2019
2019; UNISCI; Volume: 17; Issue: 49 Linguagem: Inglês
10.31439/unisci-45
ISSN2386-9453
Autores Tópico(s)Law, Ethics, and AI Impact
ResumoespanolEs probable que la amenaza terrorista y extremista mundial persista en 2019, ya que el Estado Islamico (EI) pasa por una fase de readaptacion y descentralizacion. El grupo ha establecido estructuras clandestinas y subterraneas para sobrevivir en Irak y Siria. Su ideologia sigue intacta y continua propagandose en el ciberespacio. En las provincias, los grupos, las redes y las celulas que han prometido lealtad al lider del EI, Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, estan radicalizando a los musulmanes y llevando a cabo ataques. Aprovechando el espacio fisico y virtual, el EI sigue presentando una amenaza duradera en todo el mundo. Aunque la cupula del liderazgo del EI y muchas de las figuras de direccion se han dado a la fuga y podrian ser eliminados en 2019, el penultimo liderazgo que permite seguir en la lucha y apoyar las infraestructuras seguira operando en la sombra a medida que se vuelven mas agiles y mas astutos. Es probable que las amenazas centradas en el EI y al Qaeda permanezcan, teniendo en cuenta la falta de un plan y una estrategia eficaces contra el terrorismo global, la continuidad de la rivalidad geopolitica y de las superpotencias y el fracaso para resolver las causas subyacentes del extremismo y el terrorismo. EnglishThe global terrorist and extremist threat is likely to persist in 2019 as the Islamic State (IS) go through a phase of re-adaptation and de-centralisation. The group has established clandestine and underground structures to survive in Iraq and Syria. Its ideology is still intact and continues to be propagated in cyber space. In the provinces, groups, networks and cells which have pledged allegiance to IS leader Abu Bakr al Baghdadi are radicalising Muslims and conducting attacks. Harnessing both the physical and virtual space, IS continues to present an enduring threat worldwide. Although the apex of IS leadership and many of the directing figures are on the run and might be eliminated in 2019, the penultimate leadership enabling the fight and supporting the infrastructure will continue to operate in the shadows as they become agile and more cunning. The IS and Al Qaeda-centric threats are likely to remain given the lack of an effective global counter terrorism plan and strategy, the continuance of superpower and geopolitical rivalry, and the failure to resolve the underlying causes of extremism and terrorism.
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