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Brazilian Road Bridge Management Based On Probabilistic Markov Process Deterioration Models

2025; CENTRO UNIVERSITARIO FEI; Volume: 19; Issue: 1 Linguagem: Inglês

10.24857/rgsa.v19n1-041

1981-982X

Caroline Buratto de Lima e Oliveira, Marcelo Greco, Joseph F. Greco,

Risk and Safety Analysis

Objective: The objective of this study is to investigate the feasibility of applying the Markov chain method, with the aim of obtaining deterioration models for road bridges in Brazil. Theoretical Framework: The concept of Condition Index (CI), the determination of the probability transition matrix and deterioration models based on Markov chains are presented. Method: The methodology is based on inspection records of highway bridges inspected by the Agência Nacional de Transporte Terrestre (ANTT) in three sections of different federal highways, based on annual records of condition indexes from 2010 to 2016. Results and Discussion: The deterioration models indicate that in the bridges of the analyzed highway sections, BR-040/MG/RJ, BR-101/RJ and BR-116/BA, the transition from CI=4 to CI=3 is observed in 10 years. The bridges on the BR-040/MG/RJ highway also drop from maximum CI=5 to CI=3 in just 10 years. Research Implications: The results obtained can be applied or influence practices in the field of Transportation Engineering in Brazil. The implications cover the passenger and cargo transportation sectors. Originality/Value: The study uses real data from inspections of highway bridges from a specific period of time. The relevance and value of this research are evidenced by the achievement of bridge deterioration models, which constitute fundamental tools for planning, managing and preparing public works concession notices.