Аскар Акаев, Tessaleno Devezas, Yuri Ichkitidze, Askar Sarygulov,
The development of digital technology has raised concerns about a decline in labor activity. In this paper, we offer predictions of the possible dynamics of the share of labor income for G7 countries, based on an assessment of the parameters of the factor-augmenting CES function. Particular attention is paid not only to the parameter of elasticity of substitution, but also to the measurement of relative labor intensity, which is ignored in most similar works. We show that a decrease in the share ...
Tópico(s): Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting
2021 - Elsevier BV | Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Produção Nacional
Revisado por pares
Maria Cristina Vilela Salgado, Carmen Mischel Neyra Belderrain, Tessaleno Devezas,
Current Space Launch Vehicles use chemical reactions (solid and liquid propellants) to achieve suffi cient thrust to launch artifacts and humans into space.Propulsion technologies can be framed in three different categories: "escape propulsion", "in-space propulsion", and "deep space propulsion".The launch vehicles currently used for "escape propulsion" rely on mature technologies, which experienced only small incremental improvements over the last fi ve decades, and breakthroughs for this kind of propulsion ...
Tópico(s): Spacecraft and Cryogenic Technologies
2018 - Aerospace Technology and Science Department | Journal of Aerospace Technology and Management
Tessaleno Devezas, João Leitão, Askar Sarygulov,
This book presents the latest research perspectives on how the Industry 4.0 paradigm is challenging the process of technological and structural change and how the diversification of the economy affect
Tópico(s): Economic and Technological Innovation
2017 - Springer International Publishing | Studies on entrepreneurship, structural change and industrial dynamics
Christopher L. Magee, Tessaleno Devezas,
Dematerialization is the reduction in the quantity of materials needed to produce something useful over time. Dematerialization fundamentally derives from ongoing increases in technical performance but it can be counteracted by demand rebound -increases in usage because of increased value (or decreased cost) that also results from increasing technical performance. A major question then is to what extent technological performance improvement can offset and is offsetting continuously increasing economic ...
Tópico(s): Energy, Environment, Economic Growth
2016 - Elsevier BV | Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Produção Nacional
Revisado por pares
Flávio Araripe d’Oliveira, Francisco Cristóvão Lourenço de Melo, Tessaleno Devezas,
High-altitude platforms (HAPs) are aircraft, usually unmanned airships or airplanes positioned above 20 km, in the stratosphere, in order to compose a telecommunications network or perform remote sensing.In the 1990 and 2000 decades, several projects were launched, but very few had continued.In 2014, 2 major Internet companies (Google and Facebook) announced investments in new HAP projects to provide Internet access in regions without communication infrastructure (terrestrial or satellite), bringing ...
Tópico(s): Space exploration and regulation
2016 - Aerospace Technology and Science Department | Journal of Aerospace Technology and Management
J.A. Lobão, Tessaleno Devezas, João P. S. Catalào,
The rational use of energy and energy-efficient environmental public street lighting is an important topic. In the design of new public lighting installations, national regulations containing energy-efficient guidelines are already used. Nevertheless, either in new installations or in reconstructions of existing lighting, designers do not generally consider all the available means to save energy. In installations of street lighting, energy consumption can be reduced by reducing the losses in the ...
Tópico(s): Smart Grid Energy Management
2015 - Elsevier BV | Energy Reports
J.A. Lobão, Tessaleno Devezas, João P. S. Catalào,
Increasing energy needs are accompanied by environmental responsibilities, since nowadays electricity companies operate in a competitive and sustainable energy framework. In this context, any proposal for action on energy efficiency becomes important for consumers to minimize operational costs. In electrical installations, electricity consumption can be decreased by reducing losses in the cables, associated with the overall efficiency of the equipment, allowing a better use of the installed power. ...
Tópico(s): Thermal Analysis in Power Transmission
2013 - Elsevier BV | Energy
Abílio P. Silva, Ana M. Segadães, Deesy G. Pinto, Luiz António Pereira de Oliveira, Tessaleno Devezas,
Previous works based on statistical design of experiments (DoE) defined a model all-alumina self-flow refractory castable (SFRC) with optimized particle size distribution for simultaneous high flowability index (FI) and superior post-sintering performance. This work compares the SFRC rheological behaviour and setting time with those of alternative all-alumina castables with different Andreasen aggregate particle size distribution modulus, and of the equivalent castables containing calcium aluminate ...
Tópico(s): Materials Engineering and Processing
2012 - Elsevier BV | Powder Technology
Produção Nacional
Revisado por pares
Tessaleno Devezas, Francisco Cristóvão Lourenço de Melo, Maria Luisa Gregori, Maria Cristina Vilela Salgado, Joana Ramos Ribeiro, Christian B.C. Devezas,
This article is geared toward shedding some more light on what may be the next space race and its contours. Space flight is undoubtedly a human achievement of the second half of the 20th century, and probably the most audacious one of the past century. The space race started suddenly in the 1950s and has grown explosively during the following two decades, but decreased steadily after the 1970s. After the 1990s, however, we have seen a shy rebirth of space-related activities, when many other actors ( ...
Tópico(s): Economic Development and Digital Transformation
2012 - Elsevier BV | Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Christopher L. Magee, Tessaleno Devezas,
Abstract This paper reviews a large number of approaches that have been used for considering technologically driven profound societal change. We agree with Vinge's suggestion for naming events that are “capable of rupturing the fabric of human history” (or leading to profound societal changes) as a “singularity”. This is a useful terminology especially since a mathematically rigorous singularity seems impossible for technological and related societal change. The overview of previous work is done within ...
Tópico(s): Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting
2011 - Elsevier BV | Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Harold A. Linstone, Tessaleno Devezas,
Tópico(s): Economic and Technological Innovation
2011 - Elsevier BV | Technological Forecasting and Social Change
The goal of this paper is to present a new vision about the evolution of some economics-related agents during the last one and half centuries, which when considered as a whole allow a better comprehension on what is happening and shed some light about possible future trajectories. Four actors, or agents, were minutely examined: world population, its global output (GDP), gold price and the Dow Jones index. The joint action of these actors, despite of being only a part of the whole, might be seen as ...
Tópico(s): World Systems and Global Transformations
2010 - Elsevier BV | Technological Forecasting and Social Change
J.M. Silva, Tessaleno Devezas, Arlindo Silva, Luís Gil, Célia Nunes, Noel Franco,
Aerospace components are characterized by having high strength to weight ratios in order to obtain lightweight structures. Recently, different types of sandwich components using composite materials have been developed with the purpose of combining the effect of reinforced face-sheets with low weight core materials, such as honeycombs and foams. However, these materials must combine damage tolerance characteristics with high resistance under both static and dynamic loads. Cork composites can be considered ...
Tópico(s): Cellular and Composite Structures
2010 - Trans Tech Publications | Materials science forum
Osvaldo Antônio Prado Castro, J.M. Silva, Tessaleno Devezas, Arlindo Silva, Luís Gil,
The experiments carried out in this investigation were oriented in order to optimize the properties of cork-based agglomerates as an ideal core material for sandwich components of lightweight structures, such as those used in aerospace applications. Static bending tests were performed in order to characterize the mechanical strength of different types of cork agglomerates which were obtained considering distinct production variables. The ability to withstand dynamic loads was also evaluated from ...
Tópico(s): Cellular and Composite Structures
2009 - Elsevier BV | Materials & Design (1980-2015)
J.C.O. Matias, Tessaleno Devezas,
The present article characterizes economically and socially the two past centuries, focusing the consumption development of several primary-energy sources, linking it with this century's reality. The main objective is to demonstrate the relationship between the substitution process of primary-energy sources and the socio-economic development. Our analysis focuses on four technological transformations that have already occurred, emphasizing some aspects of present technological transformations. Thus, ...
Tópico(s): Global Energy and Sustainability Research
2007 - Elsevier BV | Applied Energy
Tessaleno Devezas, David J. LePoire, J.C.O. Matias, Abílio P. Silva,
Primary energy sources exhibited regular long-term logistic substitution trends from the mid-19th century through the third quarter of the 20th century. This analysis, based on an extension of the Fisher–Pry substitution model, accounted for the observed historical shifts of primary energy use from sources of wood, coal, oil, natural gas, and nuclear. In the mid-1980s the substitution dynamics was replaced by a relatively constant contribution from oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear power, and hydropower. ...
Tópico(s): Sustainability and Ecological Systems Analysis
2007 - Elsevier BV | Futures
It is well known the fact that the world of technology is full of biological metaphors, as for instance, evolution, mutation, selection, life cycle, survival of the fittest, etc. One of the most powerful technological forecasting tools, the logistic equation, has its origin in the biological realm and has won the status of a ‘natural law’ of technology diffusion due to its considerable success as an empirically descriptive and heuristic device capturing the essential changing nature of technologies, ...
Tópico(s): Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting
2005 - Elsevier BV | Technological Forecasting and Social Change
J.M. Silva, Tessaleno Devezas, Abílio P. Silva, J.A.M. Ferreira,
The purpose of this investigation is to evaluate quantitatively and comparatively the effect of embedding optical fibers (OF) on the mechanical behavior of a carbon fiber-epoxy composite in order to verify whether their presence can possibly degrade the mechanical performance of the host material. The existing literature on this subject is not conclusive about the nature and intensity of this effect. Adding more reliable data to our systematic study contributes to this discussion favoring the conclusion ...
Tópico(s): Adhesion, Friction, and Surface Interactions
2005 - SAGE Publishing | Journal of Composite Materials
Tessaleno Devezas, Harold A. Linstone, Humberto J.S. Santos,
The phenomenal growth of Internet users is slowing down and we expect to approach a world limit in the next decade of about 14% of the world population. On the basis of a historical analysis this basic innovation is placed in the context of the Kondratieff cycles (K-waves) and the associated Generational-Learning model. A quantitative analysis using logistic growth curves allows us to evaluate its growth dynamics and to assert that the Internet is coming to the end of the 4th K-wave downswing or ...
Tópico(s): Economic and Technological Innovation
2005 - Elsevier BV | Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Tópico(s): Complex Systems and Decision Making
2004 - Elsevier BV | Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Tessaleno Devezas, George Modelski,
Tópico(s): Evolution and Genetic Dynamics
2003 - Elsevier BV | Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Tópico(s): Forecasting Techniques and Applications
2002 - Elsevier BV | Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Tessaleno Devezas, James T. Corredine,
Tópico(s): Complex Systems and Dynamics
2002 - Elsevier BV | Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Tessaleno Devezas, James T. Corredine,
In this paper, it is claimed that the effective causality of long-term macroeconomic rhythms, most commonly referred to as long waves or Kondratieff waves, is founded in our biological realm. The observed patterns of regularity in human affairs, manifest as socioeconomic rhythms and recurrent phenomena, are constrained and codetermined by our natural human biological clocks, themselves the result of instructions impressed in the human genome and human cognitive capacity by the physical regularity ...
Tópico(s): Complex Systems and Decision Making
2001 - Elsevier BV | Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Produção Nacional
Revisado por pares
R.S. de Biasi, Tessaleno Devezas,
The anisotropy field as measured by resonance is calculated for a coherent assembly of small magnetic particles possessing both crystal and shape anisotropy. The theoretical results are compared with experimental data on precipitated cobalt and magnesioferrite particles.
Tópico(s): Geomagnetism and Paleomagnetism Studies
1978 - American Institute of Physics | Journal of Applied Physics
... j.techfore.2016.07.016Dina Pereira, João Leitão, Tessaleno Devezas Coopetition and Co-innovation: Do Manufacturing and Service ...
Tópico(s): Regional Development and Policy
1969 - University of Chicago Press | Economic Development and Cultural Change
Abílio P. Silva, Deesy G. Pinto, Ana M. Segadães, Tessaleno Devezas,
In this work, alumina powders in five different commercially available size ranges were used to prepare various refractory castable mixtures, defined using the statistical design of mixture experiments (STATISTICA, StatSoft Inc.) and the EMMA 3.3 software (Elkem Materials).Those mixtures were characterized for packing density, Andreasen particle size distribution modulus (q), flowability and after sintering properties, in order to investigate the relationships between these variables.The optimization ...
Tópico(s): Materials Engineering and Processing
2010 - Elsevier BV | Journal of the European Ceramic Society
• The article shed new light about the surprise effect of COVID 19. • The surprise lies in the co-action of two different agents. • These agents are the evolved new properties of SARS-CoV2 and too much physical connectivity. • The pointed-out co-action was catastrophic revealing the fragility of our institutions and globalized socioeconomic system. • New research avenues are proposed related to the concept of K-vaves.
Tópico(s): COVID-19 epidemiological studies
2020 - Elsevier BV | Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Tessaleno Devezas, George Modelski,
Abstract World system evolution may be viewed as a cascade of multilevel, nested, self-similar and Darwinian-type processes poised on the boundary between order and chaos that allows for innovation. A framework developed by Devezas-Modelski opens the door to conceptualizing globalization as part of that evolutionary cascade, and as a process of system-building of which the Portuguese enterprises of the fifteenth and sixteenth centuries provide an illuminating case. Analysis is focused on two components ...
Tópico(s): Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting
2006 - Taylor & Francis | Globalizations
David J. LePoire, Tessaleno Devezas,
The concept of a trend toward a singularity has been discussed now for over 50 years. While many focus on the accelerated rate of technology change, other indicators also seem to be showing similar trends to near-term rapid peaks such as population, fossil fuel use, world views, financial indices, environmental impact, and inequality. While simple models such as a hyperbolic trend fit some of these (e.g., population growth until recently), there are also other patterns such as discrete steps in the ...
Tópico(s): Economic Growth and Productivity
2020 - Springer International Publishing | World-systems evolution and global futures