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Uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis of thermo-physical properties of phase change materials (PCM) in the energy demand calculations of a test cell with passive latent thermal storage

2015; Elsevier BV; Volume: 90; Linguagem: Inglês

10.1016/j.applthermaleng.2015.07.047

1873-5606

Javier Mazo, Abdallah Tarek El Badry, Joan Carreras, Mónica Delgado, Dieter Boer, Belén Zalba,

Adsorption and Cooling Systems

In this work uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analyses have been applied to a case study of an application where PCM is integrated into the envelope of a test cell. The aim of the study is to quantify the influence of the uncertainties associated with the measurements of the thermo-physical properties of PCM on the results of the annual energy consumption. For this purpose, EnergyPlus has been used for the building energy simulation and a Monte Carlo based method has been chosen for the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Considering realistic uncertainty ranges for PCM thermo-physical properties, a significant uncertainty of savings on cooling energy demand has been calculated (approximately 10%). Phase change temperature and thermal conductivity have been identified as the most influential input parameters whereas phase change enthalpy is of secondary importance. A method has been proposed in order to calculate a combination of admissible uncertainties for the input variables that reduces output uncertainty to a required value. The method can be used if input variables and the behaviour of the model comply with certain conditions. For the case study, a maximum tolerance for the error of measurements of phase change temperature and thermal conductivity of ±0.3 °C and ±8% respectively is necessary to reduce the uncertainty of savings on cooling energy demand to 5%.