2014: The Consensus Outlook
2013; Volume: 32; Issue: 4 Linguagem: Inglês
ISSN
1930-126X
Autores Tópico(s)Economic, financial, and policy analysis
ResumoThe information in this forecast is gathered by the Journal from sources it considers reliable. Neither the Journal nor the individual institutions providing the data guarantee accuracy; nor do any of them warrant in any way that use of the data appearing herein will enhance the business or investment performance of companies or individuals who use them.PARTICIPANTS I Beacon Economics = Los Angeles, California; Conf. Board = Conference Board, New York, New York; Fannie Mae = Fannie Mae, Washington, D.C.; Global Insight = Global Insight, Eddystone, Pennsylvania; GSU - EFC = Georgia State University, Economic Forecasting Center, Atlanta, Georgia; Moody's Economy = Moody's Economy.com, Westchester, Pennsylvania; Mortgage = Mortgage Bankers Association, Washington, D.C.; NAM = National Association of Manufacturers, Washington, D.C.; Northern Tr = Northern Trust Company, Chicago, Illinois; Perryman Gp = The Perryman Group, Waco, Texas; Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; SP UBS = UBS Bank, Salt Lake City, Utah; US Bank = U.S. Bank, Minneapolis, Minnesota; US Chamber = U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Washington, D.C.; Wells Fargo = Wells Fargo Bank, San Francisco, California.The Consensus Outlookfor 2014 is moderately positive. Dr. Keith Hembre, Chief Economist and Investment Strategist for U.S. Bank, believes the expansion will continue throughout the New Year barring any profound geopolitical shock. In his publication, 2014 Economic and Financial Market Review and Outlook, Hembre cites that reasons for continued growth include that the recovery began at such a depressed level therefore has plenty of room before encountering any capacity constraints, and while the federal government through Fiscal Policy will most certainly make noise, it is unlikely that any significant changes will occur until after the mid-term elections. Dr. Rajeev Dhawan of the Economic Forecasting Center at Georgia State University's Robinson College of Business, also offers a mildly positive assessment in his Forecast of the Nation. Dhawan believes the economy will putter along through the year but will be absent any real strong growth until 2015. He cites as evidence recent job numbers. While job numbers indeed have been positive, they are found primarily in low-paying fields, e.g., retail and hospitality. As such, job growth in these sectors does not translate into significant gains in purchasing power. In addition, Dhawan cites the emotional factors weighing heavily on consumer and business confidence. These issues, fueled in part due to the prior shutdown of the federal government and the continued impasse concerning the budget and debt ceilings, will continue to weigh heavily on the economy. Dr. Ray Perryman anticipates a sluggish national economy due to the reasons cited above, but in addition, there is the drag being caused by the debate over national healthcare, which has carried over negatively to hiring and business spending decisions. …
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