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Structural Econometric Models in Forecasting Inflation at the National Bank of Poland

2005; RELX Group (Netherlands); Linguagem: Inglês

10.2139/ssrn.708266

1556-5068

Bohdan Kłos, Ryszard Kokoszczyński, Tomasz Łyziak, Jan Przystupa, Ewa Wróbel,

Global Financial Crisis and Policies

The paper presents the procedure and two structural macroeconometric models used at the National Bank of Poland for producing regular quarterly inflation projections. One of the models is a small macroeconomic model based on the New Keynesian Phillips curve, the IS curve and the exchange rate equation based on uncovered interest parity with risk factors. The other, more disaggregated model, explicitly focuses on the supply side and separates the steady state from short-term adjustments.