Portal de Periódicos da CAPES

Review and Outlook for the World Oil Market

1995; World Bank Group; Linguagem: Inglês

10.1596/0-8213-3443-3

0259-210X

Shane S. Streifel,

Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies

No AccessWorld Bank Discussion Papers12 Aug 2013Review and Outlook for the World Oil MarketAuthors/Editors: Shane S. StreifelShane S. Streifelhttps://doi.org/10.1596/0-8213-3443-3SectionsAboutPDF (2.5 MB) ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack Citations ShareFacebookTwitterLinked In Abstract:The objectives of the study are: 1) to review historical developments in world oil and energy markets; 2) review past and recent forecasts of oil prices and oil markets; and 3) project world oil demand, supply and prices to 2010. A major aim of the study is to take a view on long term oil prices rather than present several alternative scenarios. A basic conclusion of the paper is that significanlty higher or lower real oil prices are less likely than a continuance of present price levels, although there is a fairly wide band in which oil prices could reasonably be expected to fluctuate or be sustained. OPEC is expected to continue to limit output to keep oil prices well above the long term competitive costs of production. Consequently, the oil market is expected to remain volatile and unstable, although somewhat more stable than during the early 1980s when oil prices were far too high to be sustained. Although upward oil price shocks are likely, a greater risk to the forecast in the near-to-medium term is for a further decline in real oil prices. The analysis presented suggests that adequate oil supplies should be forthcoming without any meaningful increase in oil prices. Although oil revenues are substantially below those of 15 years ago and many OPEC countries are running budget deficits, per barrel development costs are a small portion of current oil prices such that there is great economic incentive for countries to develop their vast reserves. Financial requirements are not expected to be a constraint to developing new capacity, in that there are a number of ways oil producing countries can attract foreign capital. The study examines past forecasting errors and shows that there have been large errors among the consensus forecasts for oil prices as well as those for demand and supply. The study suggests that a key error has been an overly pessimistic view of non-OPEC supplies which have usually been projected to peak imminently and then decline steadily thereafter. The study identifies a number of risks to forecast. It is possible that favorable economic circumstances could result in significantly higher oil demand, especially in the developing countries and particularly for Asia. The author suggests that this would not necessarily cause a large rise in oil prices because of substantial known reserves and the favorable prospects of finding new oil fields. However, large demand growth could tighten the market and provide an opportunity for OPEC to lift prices higher. Another major uncertainty is future developments in the former Soviet Union. While there is the potential for a large increase in oil exports from the region, a number of economic, political, and trans-border issues need to be resolved. Previous bookNext book FiguresReferencesRecommendedDetailsCited ByOil price movements and the Arabian Gulf economiesResources Policy, Vol.25, No.1 View Published: September 1995ISBN: 978-0-8213-3443-0 Copyright & Permissions Related TopicsIndustryEnergy KeywordsPETROLEUMPETROLEUM MARKETSFORECASTSENERGY PRICESENERGY DEMANDENERGY SUPPLYPETROLEUM RESERVESFOREIGN CAPITALPETROLEUM EXPORTSPRICE PROJECTIONSOIL FIELDS Loading ...