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The Gambler’s Fallacy: A Bayesian Approach

2008; American Institute of Physics; Linguagem: Inglês

10.1063/1.3039026

1935-0465

Fernando V. Bonassi, Rafael B. Stern, Sergio Wechsler, Marcelo de Souza Lauretto, Carlos Alberto de Bragança Pereira, Julio Michael Stern,

Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis

We study the problem of prediction in sequences of binary random variables. The models are then considered vis‐à‐vis the Gambler's Fallacy. Another model in which the Gambler's Fallacy need not be a fallacy is presented. The results may contribute for the judgment of how reasonable the assumption of infinite exchangeability is relative to typical human perception.