Portal de Periódicos da CAPES

Weighted convergence and regional clusters across China

2010; Elsevier BV; Volume: 90; Issue: 4 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1111/j.1435-5957.2010.00339.x

1435-5957

M.J. Herrerías, Vicente Orts, Emili Tortosa‐Ausina,

Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth

Papers in Regional ScienceVolume 90, Issue 4 p. 703-734 Weighted convergence and regional clusters across China M.J. Herrerías, M.J. Herrerías Universitat Jaume I, Departament d'Economia, Campus del Riu Sec, 12071 Castelló, Spain (e-mail: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected]) M.J. Herrerías and Vicente Orts gratefully acknowledge the financial support of the Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (ECO2008-06057/ECON) and Generalitat Valenciana (BFPI06/442 and PROMETEO/2009/068). Emili Tortosa-Ausina acknowledges the financial support of Fundació Caixa Castelló-Bancaixa (P1.1B2008-46), Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (ECO2008-03813/ECON and ECO2008-05908-C02-01/ECON) and Generalitat Valenciana (PROMETEO/2009/066). We also thank Qiao Yongyuan for his helpful assistance on data issues, as well as to three anonymous referees for helpful comments. The usual disclaimer applies.Search for more papers by this authorVicente Orts, Vicente Orts Universitat Jaume I, Departament d'Economia, Campus del Riu Sec, 12071 Castelló, Spain (e-mail: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected]) Universitat Jaume I, Institut d'Economia Internacional, Campus del Riu Sec, 12071 Castelló, SpainSearch for more papers by this authorEmili Tortosa-Ausina, Emili Tortosa-Ausina Universitat Jaume I, Departament d'Economia, Campus del Riu Sec, 12071 Castelló, Spain (e-mail: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected]) Ivie, C/Guàrdia Civil, 22, València, València 46020, SpainSearch for more papers by this author M.J. Herrerías, M.J. Herrerías Universitat Jaume I, Departament d'Economia, Campus del Riu Sec, 12071 Castelló, Spain (e-mail: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected]) M.J. Herrerías and Vicente Orts gratefully acknowledge the financial support of the Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (ECO2008-06057/ECON) and Generalitat Valenciana (BFPI06/442 and PROMETEO/2009/068). Emili Tortosa-Ausina acknowledges the financial support of Fundació Caixa Castelló-Bancaixa (P1.1B2008-46), Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (ECO2008-03813/ECON and ECO2008-05908-C02-01/ECON) and Generalitat Valenciana (PROMETEO/2009/066). We also thank Qiao Yongyuan for his helpful assistance on data issues, as well as to three anonymous referees for helpful comments. The usual disclaimer applies.Search for more papers by this authorVicente Orts, Vicente Orts Universitat Jaume I, Departament d'Economia, Campus del Riu Sec, 12071 Castelló, Spain (e-mail: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected]) Universitat Jaume I, Institut d'Economia Internacional, Campus del Riu Sec, 12071 Castelló, SpainSearch for more papers by this authorEmili Tortosa-Ausina, Emili Tortosa-Ausina Universitat Jaume I, Departament d'Economia, Campus del Riu Sec, 12071 Castelló, Spain (e-mail: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected]) Ivie, C/Guàrdia Civil, 22, València, València 46020, SpainSearch for more papers by this author First published: 27 December 2010 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1435-5957.2010.00339.xCitations: 16 Read the full textAboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onEmailFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditWechat Abstract We analyse per capita GDP convergence among 28 Chinese provinces between 1952 and 2005 using the distribution dynamics approach. Compared with previous studies, we provide a more complete view by including some additional information such as the asymptotic half-life of convergence, mobility indices and the continuous version of the ergodic distributions. In addition, we also extend the analysis to evaluate whether patterns could differ if weighted by either the population living in each province or their economic sizes, together with the existence and magnitude of spatial spillovers. The unweighted, unconditional analysis corroborates and supplements previous findings, especially those indicating that convergence patterns differ strongly under either pre- or post-reform trends. Both the weighted and space-conditioned analyses indicate that convergence could be much faster when these factors are introduced in the analysis. Implications are especially relevant when weighing by population, since results indicate that the number of people escaping from relative poverty would be much higher than the figure predicted by the unweighted analysis. Resumen Analizamos aquí la convergencia del PIB per cápita entre 28 provincias de China entre 1952 y 2005, utilizando el enfoque de evolución dinámica de distribuciones. En comparación con estudios previos, proporcionamos una visión más completa mediante la incorporación de información adicional como la semivida (half-life) asintótica de la convergencia, índices de movilidad y la versión continua de las distribuciones ergódicas. Además, ampliamos nuestro análisis a evaluar si pudiera haber diferencias en los patrones si se hiciera una ponderación basada en la población que vive en cada provincia o en sus tamaños económicos, junto con la existencia y magnitud de spillovers espaciales. El análisis incondicional, no ponderado, corrobora y complementa resultados de estudios anteriores, especialmente aquellos que indican que los patrones de convergencia difieren en gran medida bajo tendencias pre o post reforma económica. Tanto los análisis de naturaleza espacial como los ponderados indican que la convergencia podría suceder mucho más rápidamente si en el análisis se introdujesen estos factores . Las implicaciones son especialmente relevantes para la ponderación por población, ya que los resultados indican que el número de personas que podrían lograr salir de la una pobreza relativa podría ser mucho mayor que la cifra pronosticada por el análisis no ponderado. References Alesina A, Perotti R (1993) Income distribution, political instability, and investment. Working Paper 4486, NBER Alesina AF, Rodrik D (1994) Distributive politics and economic growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 109: 465–490 Bai CE, Hsieh C, Qian Y (2006) The return to capital in China. Technical Report 12755, NBER Barro RJ, Sala-i-Martin X (1992) Convergence. Journal of Political Economy 100: 223–251 Ben-David D (1994) Convergence clubs and diverging economies. Discussion Paper 922, Centre for Economic Policy Research, London Bhalla A, Yao S, Zhang Z (2003) Regional economic performance in China. The Economics of Transition 11: 25–39 Bosker M (2009) The spatial evolution of regional GDP disparities in the 'old' and the 'new' Europe. Papers in Regional Science 88: 3–27 Bramall C (2000) Sources of Chinese Economic Growth, 1978–1996: Studies on Contemporary China. Oxford University Press, Oxford Brun JF, Combes JL, Renard MF (2002) Are there spillover effects between coastal and noncoastal regions in China? China Economic Review 13: 161–169 Bulli S (2001) Distribution dynamics and cross-country convergence: A new approach. Scottish Journal of Political Economy 48: 226–243 Canova F, Marcet A (1995) The poor stay poor: Non-convergence across countries and regions. Discussion Paper 1265, CEPR, London Caselli F, Esquivel G, Lefort F (1996) Re-opening the convergence debate: A new look at cross-country growth empirics. Journal of Economic Growth 1: 363–389 Cetorelli N (2002) Could Prometheus be bound again? A contribution to the convergence controversy. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 27: 29−50 Chai JC (1998) China: Transition to a market economy: Studies on contemporary China. Oxford University Press, Oxford Checherita CD (2009) Variations on economic convergence: The case of the United States. Papers in Regional Science 88: 259–278 Chen J, Fleisher B (1996) Regional income inequality and economic growth in China. Journal of Comparative Economics 22: 141–164 Chow G (2006) Are Chinese official statistics reliable? CESifo Economic Studies 52: 396–414 De la Fuente Á (1997) The empirics of growth and convergence: A selective review. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 21: 23–73 Ding L, Haynes K, Liu Y (2008) Telecommunications infrastructure and regional income convergence in China: Panel data approaches. The Annals of Regional Science 42: 843–861 Durlauf SN, Quah DT (1999) The new empirics of economic growth. In: JP Taylor, M Woodford (eds) Handbook of Macroeconomics, volume 1A. North Holland, Amsterdam Eaton J, Eckstein Z (1997) Cities and growth: Theory and evidence from France and Japan. Regional Science and Urban Economics 27: 443–474 Fujita M, Hu D (2001) Regional disparity in China 1985–1994: The effects of globalization and economic liberalization. The Annals of Regional Science 35: 3–37 Geweke J, Marshall RC, Zarkin GA (1986) Mobility indices in continuous time Markov chains. Econometrica 54: 1407–1423 Goerlich FJ (2003) Weighed, kernel density estimators and convergence. Empirical Economics 28: 335–351 Gundlach E (1997) Regional convergence of output per worker in China: A neoclassical interpretation. Asian Economic Journal 11: 423–442 Härdle W, Linton O (1994) Applied nonparametric methods. In: R Engle, D McFadden (eds) Handbook of Econometrics, volume 4. North Holland, Amsterdam Herrerias MJ, Orts V (2010) Is the export-led growth hypothesis enough to account for China's growth? China & World Economy 18: 34–51 Hjort NL, Jones MC (1996) Locally parametric nonparametric density estimation. The Annals of Statistics 24: 1619–1647 Ho CY, Li D (2008) Rising regional inequality in China: Policy regimes and structural changes. Papers in Regional Science 87: 245–259 Holz CA (2005) China governance project: The institutional arrangements for the production statistics. Statistics Working Papers 2005/1, OECD, Paris Islam N (2003) What have we learnt from the convergence debate? Journal of Economic Surveys 17: 309–362 Jian T, Sachs J, Warner A (1996) Trends in regional inequality in China. China Economic Review 7: 1–21 Johnson PA (2000) A nonparametric analysis of income convergence across the US states. Economics Letters 69: 219–223 Johnson PA (2005) A continuous state space approach to 'convergence by parts'. Economics Letters 86: 317–321 Jones CI (1997) On the evolution of the world income distribution. Journal of Economic Perspectives 11: 19–36 Kremer M, Onatski A, Stock J (2001) Searching for prosperity. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 55: 275–303 Krugman PR (1991) Increasing returns and economic geography. Journal of Political Economy 99: 483−499 Krugman PR (1993) Geography and trade. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA Lamo A (2000) On convergence empirics: Some evidence for Spanish regions. Investigaciones Económicas 24: 681–707 Lardy NR (1992) Foreign trade and economic reform in China, 1978–1990. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge Li Q, Racine JS (2007) Nonparametric econometrics: Theory and practice. Princeton University Press, Oxford Li W (1997) The impact of economic reform on the performance of Chinese state enterprises, 1980–1989. Journal of Political Economy 105: 1080–1106 Lin JY (1992) Rural reforms and agricultural growth in China. The American Economic Review 82: 34–51 Loader CR (1996) Local likelihood density estimation. The Annals of Statistics 24: 1602–1618 Loader CR (1999) Local regression and likelihood. Springer Verlag, New York Maasoumi E, Wang L (2008) Economic reform, growth and convergence in China. Econometrics Journal 11: 128–154 Magrini S (1999) The evolution of income disparities among the regions of the European Union. Regional Science and Urban Economics 29: 257–281 Marshall A (1890) Principles of Economics. Macmillan and Co, London Montouri, SJRBD (1999) US regional income convergence: A spatial econometric perspective. Regional Studies 33: 143–156 Moreno-Monroy AI (2010) Market access and the heterogeneous effect of shocks on wages: Evidence from Chinese cities. Papers in Regional Science doi/10.1111/j.1435-5957.2010.00319.x. Pedroni P, Yao JY (2006) Regional income divergence in China. Journal of Asian Economics 17: 294–315 Quah DT (1993a) Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth. European Economic Review 37: 426–434 Quah DT (1993b) Galton's fallacy and tests of the convergence hypothesis. Scandinavian Journal of Economics 95: 427–443 Quah DT (1996a) Aggregate and regional disaggregate fluctuations. Empirical Economics 21: 137–159 Quah DT (1996b) Empirics for economic growth and convergence. European Economic Review 40: 1353–1375 Quah DT (1996c) Regional convergence clusters across Europe. European Economic Review 40: 951–958 Quah DT (1996d) Twin Peaks: Growth and convergence in models of distribution dynamics. Economic Journal 106: 1045–1055 Quah DT (1997a) Empirics for growth and distribution: Stratification, polarization and convergence clubs. Journal of Economic Growth 2: 27–59 Quah DT (1997b) Regional cohesion from local isolated actions. II. Conditioning. Discussion Paper 379, CEPR Raiser M (1998) Subsidising inequality: Economic reforms, fiscal transfers and convergence across Chinese provinces. Journal of Development Studies 34: 1–26 Redding S (2002) Specialization dynamics. Journal of International Economics 58: 299–334 Rodríguez-López J, Martínez-López D, Romero-Ávila D (2009) Persistence of inequalities across the Spanish regions. Papers in Regional Science 88: 841–862 Rozelle S (1994) Rural industrialization and increasing inequality: Emerging patterns in China's reforming economy. Journal of Comparative Economics 19: 362–391 Sakamoto H, Islam N (2008) Convergence across Chinese provinces: An analysis using Markov transition matrix. China Economic Review 19: 66–79 Sala-i-Martin X (2006) The world distribution of income: Falling poverty and . . . convergence, period. Quarterly Journal of Economics 121: 351–398 Schultz TP (1998) Inequality in the distribution of personal income in the world: How it is changing and why. Journal of Population Economics 11: 307–344 Shorrocks AF (1978) The measurement of mobility. Econometrica 46: 1013–1024 Silverman BW (1986) Density estimation for statistics and data analysis. Chapman and Hall, London Temple J (1999) The new growth evidence. Journal of Economic Literature 37: 112–156 Tortosa-Ausina E, Pérez F, Mas M, Goerlich FJ (2005) Growth and convergence profiles in Spanish provinces. Journal of Regional Science 45: 147–182 Wand MP, Jones MC (1995) Kernel smoothing. Chapman and Hall, London Wang Z (2003) Regional divergence of per capita GDP in China: 1991−1999. Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies 2: 39–53 Weeks M, Yao JY (2003) Provincial conditional income convergence in China, 1953–1997: A panel data approach. Econometric Reviews 22: 59–77 Wei Y (1996) Fiscal systems and uneven regional development in China, 1978–1991. Geoforum 27: 329–344 Yao S, Zhang Z (2001a) On regional inequality and diverging clubs: A case study of contemporary China. Journal of Comparative Economics 29: 466–484 Yao S, Zhang Z (2001b) Regional growth in China under economic reforms. Journal of Development Studies 38: 167–186 Citing Literature Volume90, Issue4November 2011Pages 703-734 ReferencesRelatedInformation