Portal de Periódicos da CAPES

Retorno dos novos investimentos privados em contextos de incerteza: uma proposta de mudança do mecanismo de concessão de rodovias no Brasil

2000; FUNDAÇÃO GETÚLIO VARGAS; Volume: 34; Issue: 4 Linguagem: Inglês

1982-3134

José Cláudio Linhares Pires, Fábio Giambiagi,

Logistics and Infrastructure Analysis

The need to restore and expand the Brazilian highway network has given impulse, during the last five years, to the privatization of roads by means of the concession mechanism. In general, concessions have been granted on a fixed term basis, with the conceding authority establishing the maximum tariff. Notwithstanding the need for private investments, the impacts caused by tariffs on the circulation of goods and on the well being of the people have generated a search for alternative road concession methods. This paper suggests the adoption of the proposal to endogenize the term of the concession contracts, so that the winning bidder is the one that presents the toll with the lowest present value. According to this model, the concession will expire when the actual revenue equals the one expected by the concessionaire. Thus, the conceding authority can make a new bid for the concession, with lower tariffs, anticipating the benefits of tariff reduction, as compared to the current model. This proposal has the merit of being especially important to new projects, whose level of uncertainty about the behavior of the variables that are important for revenue estimation can generate extraordinary profits for the concessionaires if the expected demand is underestimated.