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AVALIAÇÃO DA LEI DE MOORE E PROPOSTA DE UM MODELO DE PREVISÃO ALTERNATIVO BASEADO EM TÉCNICAS DE EXTRAPOLAÇÃO DE TENDÊNCIAS

2009; Institute of Management Foundation; Volume: 01; Issue: 02 Linguagem: Inglês

10.7444/future.v1i2.11

2175-5825

Marcelo D'Emidio,

Economic Growth and Productivity

This study´s core objective is to validate whether the model proposed by Moore (1975) - also known as Moore’s Law – adequately describes the technological evolution of microprocessors. It further poses to verify whether this model is a feasible predictive tool and, finally, present an alternative model. To this extent, the forecasting technique method, based on historical data projections, will be applied. Statistical tests employed presented strong indications that the method proposed by Moore (1975) adequately described the evolution of processor component numbers during the 70s, 80s and 90s. As to the 2000s, however, the same cannot be affirmed and consequently the present study encountered grounding for the need to adapt the model to enable its application as a predictive tool.Key-words: Moore’s Law. Forecast. Technological evolution.