Portal de Periódicos da CAPES

[Long-range world population projections: two centuries of population growth 1950-2150 prepared by the United Nations in 1992]

1992; Cambridge University Press; Volume: 48; Issue: 2 Linguagem: Inglês

0387-2793

Yoshiaki Saitsu,

Space Science and Extraterrestrial Life

Assuming replacement fertility the world population in 2150 will be 11.5 billion which is 4.6 times that of 1950. The greatest annual increase of 1.9% took place between 1950 and 1990 doubling the population over the same period. Its increase between 1990 and 2050 is expected to be 89%; the same between 2050 and 2100 12%; the same between 2100 and 2150 3%. The world population in 2150 will be quite aged. The median age of 24 in 1990 will be 42 in 2150. 18% of the population will be 15 and under; 24% will be 65 and over. The population aged 80 and over which was 1% in 1990 will be 9% in 2150. Nine regions of the world are divided into two groups: group 1 consists of North America Europe Oceania and the former Soviet Union; group 2 is Africa three regions of Asia and Latin America. Between 1990 and 2150 98% of the increase in world population is expected to take place in group 2. The African population will increase most rapidly and will constitute 27% of the world population by 2150. The population increase in group 1 was 45% between 1950 and 1990 and is expected to be 13% between 1990 and 2050. Between 2050 and 2150 population is expected to decrease by 3%. Group 1s population ratio to world population in 2150 will be 10.4%. The population ratio of Europe in 2150 will be as low as 3.7%. The ratio of population below age 15 will decrease from 22 to 18% in group 1 and from 35 to 18% in group 2 between 1990 and 2150. The population over age 65 will dramatically increase from 12.1 to 24.7% in group 1 and from 5 to 25% between 1990 and 2150. During the same period the population over age 80 will increase from 0.6 to 9.6%. A world population of 11.2 billion in 2100 according to this particular projection is 10% larger than the 1982 projection of a stable population of 10.2 billion in 2100. Current projections predict a stable world population of 11.6 million in 2200.