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The changing demographics of A ustralia over the last 30 years

2013; Wiley; Volume: 32; Issue: S2 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1111/ajag.12113

1741-6612

Graeme Hugo,

Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management

Populations are in a constant state of change, but unlike many aspects of economic, political and social change that can be sudden, demographic change is usually gradual and cumulative. Accordingly, demographic change is often overlooked by commentators and policy-makers and can ‘creep up’ on them. Australia's population change is especially dynamic because international migration has been consistently more significant than in other Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries over the entire postwar period. Accordingly, in 2011, half of the number of people living in Australia consists of migrants or Australia-born children from migrants, compared with 20% in the USA, for example. Out of OECD countries for which more than 50 years of data are available, Australia's population growth is the second fastest since World War II due to international migration and a total fertility rate close to replacement level 1, 2. Yet this high rate of growth is only part of the demographic transformation that has occurred. The most dramatic changes have been in the composition of the population and these shifts have been both a cause and consequence of the substantial economic and social changes that have swept across Australia over this period. Over the next couple of decades nothing will impact OECD economies more profoundly than demographic trends and, chief among them, ageing 4. Australia: Age-sex distribution, 1981 and 2011. Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, unpublished data, 1981 and 2011 censuses. In Australia, similar sentiments have been expressed by the Department of Treasury 5-7 in their three-yearly Intergenerational Reports. Yet the increase in the significance of ageing in Australia was anticipated and reported much earlier. In particular, the publication of Howe's 8 Towards an Older Australia and the launch of the Australian Journal on Ageing in 1982 marked the beginning of a new awareness of the rapid growth of the older population and an analysis of the 1981 population census results devoted a chapter to the ‘Greying of Australia’ 9. This paper summarises and analyses the major changes that have occurred in the Australian population between the 1981 and 2011 population censuses over the period since the launch of the Australian Journal on Ageing. The first section focuses on the pattern of population growth and the changing patterns of mortality, fertility and international migration, which have not only contributed to changing levels of population growth but have also impacted on both the changing composition and distribution of the population. In the second section, changes in the composition of the population are considered with respect to ageing, ethnicity and households. Third, changes in population spatial distribution are analysed. Finally, some of the implications of these changes for national population policy are examined and discussed briefly. This paper relies mainly upon population census and immigration data to reflect demographic change. The quinquennial Australian census is one of the most accurate in the world with an underenumeration of only 1.7% in 2011 and an array of questions that facilitate comprehensive analysis of the changing patterns of growth in, and characteristics and location of, the Australian older population 10. Similarly, international data are excellent 11. There is, however, some potential for misinterpretation in a few areas of population dynamics that need to be briefly mentioned here. For example, census data on the indigenous population are on the basis of self-identification and are subject to error, which may vary between censuses. Similarly, the calculation of net migration is becoming increasingly complex in Australia with the increasing significance of temporary migration. The total population increased from 14.6 to 21.5 million over the 1981–2011 period. Table 1 shows that the rate of growth varied between 1.61% per annum in 2006–2011 to 1.05% in 1991–1996. These rates of growth are high by high-income country standards, although somewhat slower than in the heyday of rapid growth in the early postwar decades 12. Table 1 also shows that in every intercensal period since 1981, the growth rate of the 65+ population has considerably outpaced that of the total population with growth rates varying between almost 3% per annum in 1986–1991 and 2% in 1996–2001. The rates for the older-old 75+ population have been even greater except for the most recent period. Hence while the total population increased by 47.6% between 1981 and 2011, the 65+ more than doubled (110.7%) and the 75+ almost trebled (171.4%). In order to understand the dynamics of overall population growth and the reasons why the older population has grown even faster since 1981, it is necessary to examine the processes of population change. Figure 2 shows the relative contributions of natural increase (births minus deaths) and net migration (immigrants minus emigrants). It will be noticed that the contribution of natural increase has remained relatively stable over the period adding around 100 000 persons net each year. Net migration, on the other hand, has been much more volatile, fluctuating with national economic trends and shifts in government policy. For example, the net migration gain spiked in 2008–2009, which was possibly influenced by a new method of estimating net migration introduced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). We will now turn to examining trends in each of the demographic processes impinging on national population growth separately. Australia: Total population growth showing the natural increase and net migration components, 1981–2012. Source: [Australian Bureau of Statistics, unpublished data, 13]. First, with respect to mortality, Figure 3 shows the steep increase in life expectancy among Australians over the last century. In the period since World War II, life expectancy has increased by 12.6 years for male and 12.9 years for female Australians. Between 1981 and 2011, the increase in life expectancy was 8.3 years for men and 5.8 for women. Hence more Australians are surviving the younger years than ever before. However, perhaps the biggest change has come in the older ages. Prior to 1970 we had added very few years of extra life to Australians aged 50 years or more, despite a greater likelihood to reach the age of 50. Hence, Table 2 shows that between 1901 and 1970 life expectancy increased by only 1.8 years for Australians aged 50. The increase was greater for women (4.6 years) because of the huge reduction in pregnancy/childbirth-related deaths. However the table shows that there has since been a dramatic change with 8.5 years being added to the life expectancy of Australian men aged 50 between 1970 and 2010 and 7.1 years to the life expectancy of Australian women of that age. Between 1981 and 2011, the increases were 6.8 years for men and 4.8 for women. This massive change was not anticipated by commentators at the time 14, 15 and was achieved through medical breakthroughs such as better diagnosis of heart conditions, bypass operations and the development of intensive care units. In addition, major improvements in lifestyle through better diet, reduced smoking and safer cars have also had an impact. As a result, not only are more Australians surviving to retirement age, but more are having an extended period of retirement. This is contributing significantly to the growth of our older population. Australia: Expectation of life at birth, 1870–2011. Source: 9 16. The greater survival of Australians into older age may not however have produced an older generation which is healthier than previous generations. While we lack definitive data in Australia, Table 3 shows that ABS sample surveys of self-reported health indicates that the proportion of older Australians aged over 65 years reporting some form of disability increased by 8 percentage points between 1981 and 2009. This might indicate that medical breakthroughs are ‘rescuing older Australians from death’, but they are then surviving with some disability or chronic ailment. The implications for health services, workforce participation, volunteering and the day-to-day lives of people are considerable. The ABS in Australia anticipates that life expectancy in Australia will continue to increase 21. However, some commentators have questioned this as the onset of the global obesity epidemic and its impacts on health may be expected to slow these past substantial increases in longevity 22. It has been suggested that the link between poor health and obesity will mean that recent substantial increases in life expectancy among older Australians will not continue. Figure 4 shows that one of the most striking changes in health risk behaviour in the Australian population since 1980 has been an increase in the proportion who are overweight or obese. Moreover, in the context of considering ageing, it is interesting to note in Figure 5 that baby boomers (those born between 1946 and 1964) have high levels of overweight and obesity and significantly higher than the current 65+ population when they were the same age 23. If these patterns continue this will lead to greatly increased morbidity, chronic diseases and disability among older Australians 24. Moreover, it has been shown that Generation X (those born between 1965 and 1981) has higher levels of obesity than baby boomers had at the same age 25. Australia: Adults in normal, overweight and obese body mass index categories, based on self reported height and weight, 1980–2011/2012. Capital cities and urban areas only in 1980. Source: [Australian Bureau of Statistics, unpublished data, 26, 27]. Australia: Proportion of persons who were overweight or obesea by age and sex, 2011–2012. aBased on body mass index for persons whose height and weight was measured. Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian Bureau of Statistics, unpublished data, 2012 26, 27. Changing fertility trends have had a major impact on the growth and ageing of Australia's population. Figure 6 illustrates trends in Australia's total fertility rate (TFR)1 over the last century and shows that Australian fertility began to decline in the 1870s and fell more or less continuously until 1946 when there was an upturn. The postwar baby boom saw total fertility levels exceed 3.5 for almost two decades. This was followed by a precipitous decline in fertility to below 2. Since the 1970s, fertility has been fluctuating around 1.8 and 1.9. Hence there has been only a small change in the TFR between 1.935 in 1981 and 1.884 in 2011. The high fertility of the two decades following World War II had a massive impact on Australia's postwar demography. The baby boomers are now poised to enter the older age groups, causing significant growth in Australia's older population over the next two decades. Total fertility rate Australia, 1860–2011. Source: 28. The demography of few countries has been as strongly affected by international migration as Australia. Figure 2 demonstrates that net migration on average has contributed around half of Australia's population growth over the last 30 years. However, its impact has gone far beyond a numerical one with one of the major shifts being an increase in diversity. Figure 7 demonstrates the diversity of the Australian permanent settler intake with the increasing Asia, Pacific, Middle Eastern and African groups. This has resulted in Australia becoming one of the most diverse nations in the OECD. Table 4 compares some cultural indicators at the 1981 and 2011 population censuses and shows the increase in the proportion of Australians who are migrants and the diversity in language and religion. Australia: Settler arrivals by region of last residence, 1947–2011. Source: DIMIA (Department of Immigration and Multicultural and Indigenous Affairs (Australia) ), Australian Immigration: Consolidated Statistics 29;DIAC DIAC (Department of Immigration and Citizenship), Immigration Update, various issues 30; DIAC, unpublished data. One dimension of the increased cultural diversity in Australia's population over the 1981–2011 period has been within the nation's older population. In 1981, some 24.4% of the Australian aged were born overseas, 9.8% in Culturally and Linguistically Diverse (CALD) countries. However, by 2011 this proportion had increased to 35.9 and 21.7%, respectively. Table 5 shows that while the Australia-born population aged 65+ increased by 68.1%, the overseas-born almost trebled (191.5%), while CALD older people increased by 339.5% – five times that of the Australia-born. The diversification of the Australian older population is one of the most significant dimensions of Australia's ageing population. One important change in Australian immigration in recent decades has been the greatly increased importance of non-permanent movements, especially those involving workers and students. In 1981 the Australian immigration program focused almost entirely on permanent settlement and eschewed temporary worker migration. At the end of 2011, it was estimated that there were 1.05 million persons temporarily in Australia 31 – equivalent to 4.7% of the total population. These are primarily made up of overseas students (361 369 in September 2011), Temporary Business (Long Stay – 457) migrants (140 769), and Working Holiday Makers (130 612) as well as short-term visitors. The processes described earlier have not only reshaped the size of the Australian population over the last three decades, but produced some profound changes in its composition. Increased multicultural diversity has already been demonstrated, but perhaps the most discussed element of change has been ageing. As Figure 1 dramatically attests, there has been a major shift, which has meant the proportion of the national population aged less than 35 has decreased (from 58.6 in 1981 to 46.4 in 2011) while those older increased their share from 41.4 to 53.6%. Most focus has been on the aged 65 years or more whose numbers almost doubled from 1.43 million in 1981 to 3.01 million in 2011 and their proportion of the population increased from 9.8 to 14.0%. The 65+ population grew more than twice as fast as the total population – 110.7 compared with 47.6% change. All three demographic processes discussed – mortality, fertility and migration – have contributed to these patterns: Lowered mortality has an impact through increased life expectancy, especially at older ages. Low fertility has meant the young population is growing more slowly than in the past. While immigrants are selectively drawn from the young working ages, immigrants themselves age and contribute to the growth of the older population. The large baby boom cohort born during the high-fertility postwar years has had a large impact on Australia's demography throughout their lives, contributing to a ‘younging’ of the national age structure when they were children and its ageing as they have ‘moved up’ the age pyramid. Their impact is still considerable, with Australian census figures showing they make up 25.4% of the total population in 2011 and 36% of the workforce (compared with 33.6 and 52.5% in 1981). This change presents considerable challenges, with the ratio of workers to dependants set to decline and the demand for health services, age support pensions and eventually aged care services set to increase significantly. Australia: Change in the number of families/households, 1986–2011. Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics censuses, unpublished data. One of the most important elements in Australia's demography is the Aboriginal and Torres Strait islander population. Changes in this group over the 1981–2011 period are shown in Table 6. There are substantial difficulties in the counting of the indigenous population. This is partly associated with the marginal circumstances in which many live, leading to them being missed in censuses. This problem has been overcome to a degree in recent censuses through the ABS employing special procedures, which undoubtedly have led to successively greater proportions of the population being counted. A greater problem relates to variations between censuses in the extent to which people do or do not identify themselves as Aboriginal in the census. Increased readiness to identify oneself as Aboriginal, especially following The Apology undoubtedly is a major factor in the recent rapid growth. It is apparent from Table 6 that the Aboriginal population differs from their non-Aboriginal counterparts with higher mortality and fertility rates resulting in a more rapid natural increase rate and a very young age structure. It is notable that, despite some improvement, mortality rates remain much higher than the Australian average. Aboriginal people are also much more represented in regional areas than the non-Aboriginal population. Australia has a very distinctive population distribution and the broad outlines of that distribution have changed little over the last century 12. Figure 9 depicts the geographic centre of gravity of the Australian population in 1981 and 2011 and only a small movement northward is apparent. This reflects the fact that Queensland has been the fastest growing state over this period. Nevertheless, it is apparent from Table 7 that there have been only minor changes in the structure of Australia's population distribution. Australia is a strongly urbanised country with more than two-thirds of the population living in cities. There has been a small increase in the proportion living in urban areas over the last three decades. In fact there has been a similar rate of growth between capital city and regional populations over this period. However, this has masked some important shifts in the detail of the Australian population distribution. Australia: Weighted population centre, 1981 and 2011. Source: Australian censuses, unpublished data, 1981 and 2011. First, the balance between states and territories has changed. In the early postwar years the southeastern part of the country was the most rapidly growing due to the fast pace of industrial development. However, since 1981 Queensland and Western Australia have grown fastest, so that the proportion of the national population living in the southeastern states declined from 74.7% in 1981 to 68.5% in 2011. The shift of population from non-metropolitan to metropolitan areas has been an important feature of Australia's postwar demography. Quantifying the change has been made difficult by definitional problems but it is apparent from Table 7 that there has been a slight increase in urbanisation over the 1981–2011 period. Figure 10 shows that in fact the proportion of the national population living in the capital cities declined slightly between 1971 and 1996, but thereafter began to increase. The proportion of the population living in capital cities has especially increased since 2006 concurrent with rapid population growth and high levels of immigration. Australia: Percentage of population living in capital cities, 1972–2011. Source: 33. Finally, within capital cities there have been some interesting changes in population distribution. For most of the postwar period increasing levels of car ownership in postwar Australia fostered the lateral extension of low-density suburbs in Australia's large metropolitan areas. For the early postwar decades the bulk of population growth in major cities occurred in the outer suburbs. However, population growth is increasingly occurring in older built-up areas of the major cities, encouraged by both planning policy and changing preferences. Population issues have waxed and waned in Australian public discussion since Federation 34 and this has certainly been the case during the 1981–2011 period. In 1981, the National Population Inquiry 14, 15 had been recently released giving unprecedented detailed analysis of Australian population trends and issues. The 1980s saw a revival of concern about population and environment – an issue that had been largely quiet since the 1920s. A questioning of the pressures that population growth was putting on the environment intensified in the 1980s 35, 36 and there were several major investigations into population and environment. The first was the inquiry into Population Issues and Australia's Future: Environment, Economy and Society undertaken by the Population Issues Committee of the National Population Council 37, 38. The Council was asked by the Prime Minister to ‘examine all pertinent matters – including the impact of population increase on the economy, environment, human service delivery, infrastructure, social equity and international obligations’ 37. The report produced by the Committee argued that Australia was at a crossroads with respect to its population and called for the development of a population policy that seeks to influence and respond to population change, to advance economic progress, ecological integrity, social justice and responsible international involvement. The report advocated strongly for a more holistic approach to considerations of population, which balanced economic, environment and social considerations. It argued that environmental considerations made it necessary to adopt a precautionary approach to population and to move towards a more sustainable future. Two other key documents from the 1990s were reports from the Australian Academy of Science 39 and the Commonwealth House of Representatives Standing Committee on Long Term Strategies Inquiry Into Australia's Carrying Capacity 40. All these argued that Australia should move towards the development of a comprehensive population policy which was both proactive and responsive. Unfortunately they had little impact. Australia's population has experienced profound change since the Australian Journal on Ageing was launched in February 1982. Some of these changes were anticipated in contemporary demographic analyses 9, 14, but others have surprised demographers. The former includes the growth of the older population outpacing that of the total population as well as increasing ethnic and household diversity. However, changes in population growth, composition and distribution are both caused by and influence economic, social, political and environmental processes and are difficult to anticipate. Some elements such as changes in the numbers and characteristics of the older population are readily projected with a high degree of confidence. Others, such as population growth, distribution and migration levels are more difficult. It is important, however that public discussions and policy makers be informed by detailed understanding of evolving processes and trends in population.