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Post-conflict elections and the process of demilitarizing politics: the role of electoral administration

2004; Taylor & Francis; Volume: 11; Issue: 3 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1080/1351034042000238167

1743-890X

Terrence Lyons,

Peacebuilding and International Security

Abstract Post-conflict elections are called upon to advance the distinct processes of both war termination and democratization. This article examines the patterns in seven cases where elections served as the final step to implement a peace agreement following a period of civil war. Such elections are shaped in part by the legacy of fear and insecurity that persists in the immediate aftermath of a protracted internal conflict. Comparative analysis suggests that interim regimes in general, and electoral administration in particular, based on joint problem solving and consultation may ‘demilitarize politics’ and help transform the institutions of war into institutions capable of sustaining peace and democratization. In Mozambique, El Salvador and, to an extent, Cambodia, processes to demilitarize politics prior to elections created a context that allowed the elections to advance both peace and democratization. In the other cases, politics remained highly militarized at the time of the vote, leading either to renewed conflict (Angola) or the electoral ratification of the militarized institutions of the civil war (Bosnia and Herzegovina, Liberia, Tajikistan). Interim electoral commissions provide an important opportunity to demilitarize politics by building consultative mechanisms and norms that increase confidence in the peace process and the legitimacy of the post-conflict elections. Keywords: civil warelectoral commissionwar terminationpost-conflict electionspeace-buildinginterim regimes Notes These seven provide the primary cases analyzed here and represent all of the cases in the 1990s where civil war ended in a negotiated agreement that called for elections. Several recent collections survey these cases, including Krishna Kumar (ed.), Postconflict Elections, Democratization, and International Assistance (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 1998); Barbara F. Walter and Jack Snyder (eds), Civil Wars, Insecurity, and Intervention (New York: Columbia University Press, 1999); Stephen John Stedman, Donald Rothchild and Elizabeth M. Cousens (eds), Ending Civil Wars: The Implementation of Peace Agreements (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2002); Robert I. Rotberg (ed.), State Failure and State Weakness in a Time of Terror (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press for the World Peace Foundation, 2003). Samuel H. Barnes, ‘The Contribution of Democracy to Rebuilding Postconflict Societies’, American Journal of International Law, Vol.95, No.1 (2001), pp.86–101. Roland Paris, ‘Peacebuilding and the Limits of Liberal Internationalism’, International Security, Vol.22, No.2 (1997), p.56. Marina Ottaway, ‘Promoting Democracy after Conflict: The Difficult Choices’, International Studies Perspectives, Vol.4, No.3 (2003), pp.314–22; Marina Ottaway, ‘Rebuilding State Institutions in Collapsed States’, Development and Change, Vol.33, No.5 (2002), pp.1001–23. Jeff Fischer, ‘Post-Conflict Peace Operations and Governance in Afghanistan: A Strategy for Peace and Political Intervention’, IFES White Paper, 20 December 2001; Marina Ottaway and Anatol Lieven, ‘Peacebuilding Afghanistan: Fantasy vs. Reality’, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Policy Brief No.12, January 2002. Susan L. Woodward, ‘Economic Priorities for Successful Peace Implementation’, in Stedman, Rothchild and Cousens (note 1). Terrence Lyons, ‘The Role of Postsettlement Elections’, in Stedman, Rothchild and Cousens (note 1). For a classic statement see Dankart A. Rustow, ‘Transitions to Democracy: Towards a Dynamic Model’, Comparative Politics, Vol.2, No.3 (1970), pp.337–63. Kumar (note 1). Ben Reilly and Andrew Reynolds, Electoral Systems and Conflict in Divided Societies (Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 1999); Peter Harris and Ben Reilly (eds), Democracy and Deep-Rooted Conflict: Options for Negotiators (Stockholm: International IDEA, 1998); Bengt Säve-Söderbergh and Izumi Nakamitsu Lennartsson, ‘Electoral Assistance and Democratization’, in Fen Osler Hampson and David M. Malone (eds), From Reaction to Conflict Prevention: Opportunities for the UN System (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2002). Post-conflict elections therefore follow the more general pattern of ‘founding elections’ that take on the ‘character of a plebiscite on the new regime’ and provide ex post facto justification for the elite pacts that created the political opening. See Vernon Bogdanor, ‘Founding Elections and Regime Change’, Electoral Studies, Vol.9, No.4 (1990), p.290. Terrence Lyons, Voting for Peace: Postconflict Elections in Liberia (Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution Press, 1999). Victor Tanner, ‘Liberia: Railroading Peace’, Review of African Political Economy No.25 (1998), p.140. For example, anti-Taylor posters with pictures of the brutalities of the war and the caption ‘Chucky [Charles Taylor] did it’ served to increase the levels of fear and raise anew concerns that the civilian candidates would not be able to prevent him from doing it again. Stephen Ellis, The Mask of Anarchy: The Destruction of Liberia and the Religious Dimensions of an African Civil War (New York: New York University Press, 1999), p.109. International Crisis Group, Elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina, 22 September 1996. Cited in Susan L. Woodward, ‘Bosnia and Herzegovina: How Not to End Civil War’, in Walter and Snyder (note 1) p.96. Joint List '97 did better in the local elections of September 1997. In Tuzla, Bosnia's second largest city where multiethnic institutions protected minorities during the war, Mayor Selim Beslagic of the Joint List '97 defeated the SDA. See Bill Egbert, ‘A Noble Act of Harmony in the Balkans’, Christian Science Monitor, 9 October 1997. Quoted in Stephen Buckley, ‘Ethiopia Takes New Ethnic Tack: Deliberately Divisive’, The Washington Post, 18 June 1995, p. A21. Graffiti on the walls of several towns summed up the choice perceived by many Angolans: ‘MPLA steals but UNITA kills’. Alex Vines, One Hand Tied: Angola and the UN (London: Catholic Institute for International Relations, June 1993), p.6. Marina Ottaway, ‘Angola's Failed Elections’, in Kumar (note 1). Nasrin Dadmehr, ‘Tajikistan: A Vulnerable State in a Post-War Society’, in Rotberg (note 1); Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, The Republic of Tajikistan Elections to the Parliament, 27 February 2000: Final Report (Warsaw: OSCE, 2000). International Crisis Group, Central Asia: Crisis Conditions in Three States, ICG Asia Report No.7 (Brussels: ICG, 2000). Judy Ledgerwood, ‘Patterns of CPP Political Repression and Violence During the UNTAC Period’, in Steve Heder and Judy Ledgerwood (eds), Propaganda, Politics, and Violence in Cambodia: Democratic Transition Under United Nations Peace-keeping (Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe, 1996), pp.117, 130. Cited in Kate Frieson, ‘The Politics of Getting the Vote in Cambodia’, in Heder and Ledgerwood (note 24) p.200. Alex Vines, Renamo: From Terrorism to Democracy in Mozambique? (London: James Currey, 1996), p.159. Tommie Sue Montgomery, Revolution in El Salvador: From Civil Strife to Civil Peace (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1995), p.266. Douglass North, Institutions, Institutional Change, and Economic Performance (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990); Terry Lynn Karl, ‘Dilemmas of Democratization in Latin America’, Comparative Politics, Vol.23, No.1 (1990), pp.1–21. Kathleen Thelen and Sven Steinmo, ‘Historical Institutionalism in Comparative Politics’, in Kathleen Thelen, Sven Steinmo and Frank Longstreth (eds), Structuring Politics: Historical Institutionalism in Comparative Analysis (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1992), pp.1–32. Juan J. Linz and Alfred Stepan, Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation: Southern Europe, South America, and Post-Communist Europe (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1996), p.55. Herbert C. Kelman, ‘Transforming the Relationship Between Former Enemies: A Social-Psychological Analysis’, in Robert L. Rothstein (ed.), After the Peace: Resistance and Reconciliation (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1999) p.203. Chris Alden, Mozambique and the Construction of the New African State: From Negotiations to Nation Building (New York: Palgrave, 2001); Carrie L. Manning, The Politics of Peace in Mozambique: Post-Conflict Democratization, 1992–2000 (Westport, CT: Praeger, 2002). Montgomery, Revolution in El Salvador (note 27); Elisabeth Jean Wood, Forging Democracy from Below: Insurgent Transitions in South Africa and El Salvador (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2000). Vines, One Hand Tied (note 20); Margaret Joan Antsee, Orphan of the Cold War: The Inside Story of the Collapse of the Angolan Peace Process, 1992–93 (New York: St Martin's Press, 1996). Lyons, Voting for Peace (note 12). Steven L. Burg and Paul S. Shoup, The War in Bosnia-Herzegovina: Ethnic Conflict and International Intervention (Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe, 1999); Elizabeth M. Cousens and Charles K. Cater, Toward Peace in Bosnia: Implementing the Dayton Accords (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner for the International Peace Academy, 2001). While the focus of this article is civil war cases, electoral administration based on elements of collaborative decision making and joint problem solving has played a role in managing conflicts in non-civil war cases, such as Independent Electoral Commission in South Africa in 1994 or the Inter-Party Advisory Committee in Ghana leading up to the 1996 elections. Yossi Shain and Juan J. Linz, Between States: Interim Governments and Democratic Transitions (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1995), pp.3–21. Robert A. Pastor, ‘A Brief History of Electoral Commissions’, in Andreas Schedler, Larry Diamond and Marc F. Plattner (eds), The Self-Restraining State: Power and Accountability in New Democracies (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 1999), p.75; Peter Harris, ‘Building an Electoral Administration’, in Harris and Reilly (note 10) p.310. An excellent source on a wide variety of issues related to electoral administration see the web pages for the Administration and Cost of Elections (ACE) project at ⟨http://www.aceproject.org⟩. Marina Ottaway and Theresa Chung, ‘Toward a New Paradigm’, Journal of Democracy, Vol.10, No.4 (1999), pp.99–113. This list is by no means exhaustive. For a more detailed list see Robert A. Pastor, ‘The Role of Electoral Administration in Democratic Transitions: Implications for Policy and Research’, Democratization, Vol.6, No.4 (1999), pp.8–9. Jørgen Elklit and Andrew Reynolds, ‘The Impact of Election Administration on the Legitimacy of Emerging Democracies: A Comparative Political Research Agenda’, Commonwealth and Comparative Politics, Vol.40, No.2 (2002), pp.86–119. Shaheen Mozaffar and Andreas Schedler, ‘The Comparative Study of Electoral Governance’, International Political Science Review, Vol.23, No.1 (2002), pp.11–12; R. Taagepera, ‘How Electoral Systems Matter for Democratization’, Democratization, Vol.5, No.3 (1998), pp.68–91. Pastor, ‘The Role of Electoral Administration’ (note 42) p.18. Harris and Reilly (note 10); Timothy D. Sisk and Andrew Reynolds (eds), Elections and Conflict Management in Africa (Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace Press, 1998); Reilly and Reynolds (note 10). Sisk and Reynolds, ‘Democratization, Elections, and Conflict Management in Africa’, in idem., Elections (note 46) pp.3–4. Kenneth D. McRae, ‘Theories of Power-sharing and Conflict Management’, in Joseph Montville, (ed.), Conflict and Peacemaking in Multiethnic Societies (Lexington, MA: Lexington Books, 1990); Arend Lijphart, ‘Constitutional Choices for New Democracies’, in Larry Diamond and Marc F. Plattner (eds), The Global Resurgence of Democracy (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1993), pp.146–58; Timothy Sisk, ‘Electoral System Choice in South Africa: Implications for Intergroup Moderation’, Nationalism and Ethnic Politics, Vol.1, No.2 (1995), pp.178–204. See however Joel D. Barkan, ‘Rethinking the Applicability of Proportional Representation for Africa’, in Sisk and Reynolds, Elections (note 46). Pippa Norris, ‘The Politics of Electoral Reform’, International Political Science Review, Vol.16, No.1 (1995), p.4. Stephen John Stedman, ‘Negotiations and Mediation in Internal Conflict’, in Michael E. Brown (ed.), The International Dimensions of Internal Conflict (Cambridge, MA: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press, 1996), p.370. Juan Rial, Dennis Culkin and Roberto Lima Siqueira, Angola: A Pre-election Assessment (Washington, DC: International Foundation on Election Systems, March 1992); Tom Bayer, Angola: Presidential and Legislative Elections, September 29–30, 1992 (Washington, DC: International Foundation on Electoral Systems, n.d.). Ottaway, ‘Angola's Failed Elections’ (note 21) p.140. Fen Osler Hampson, Nurturing Peace: Why Peace Settlements Succeed or Fail (Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace, 1996), p.113. In May 1991, US-based democratization promotion groups concluded that the ‘prospects for conducting meaningful elections as scheduled for September 29 and 20, 1992, are dubious’. National Democratic Institute and International Republican Institute, ‘Angola Briefing Paper, Pre-assessment Mission, May 21–27, 1991’. Carl Bildt, Peace Journey: The Struggle for Peace in Bosnia (London: Weidenfeld and Nicolson, 1998), pp.256–7. Burg and Shoup (note 36). Terrence Lyons, ‘Peace and Elections in Liberia’, in Kumar (note 1) pp.182–3. See Inter-Party Working Group, ‘Statement of Political Parties of the Republic of Liberia on the Prescribed Preconditions for the Holding of Free, Fair and Democratic Elections’, 1 May 1997. This group consisted of eleven registered political parties (but not Taylor's NPP). AFP, ‘Only ECOWAS Can Change Elections Date: Ikimi’, 27 April 1997. Human Rights Watch, Human Rights Watch Press Backgrounder on Tajikistan 5 October 2001, available at ⟨http://www.hrw.org/backgrounder/eca/tajikbkg1005.htm⟩. Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR), The Republic of Tajikistan: Elections to the Parliament, 27 February 2000 (Warsaw: ODIHR, 2000), pp.1, 22. The United Nations concluded that the election ‘did not meet minimum standards’. Interim Report of the Secretary-General on the Situation in Tajikistan, S/2000/214, 14 March 2000, par.10. Michael W. Doyle, ‘War and Peace in Cambodia’, in Walter and Snyder (note 1) pp.203, 205. James A. Schear and Karl Farris, ‘Policing Cambodia: The Public Security Dimensions of UN Peace Operations’, in Robert B. Oakley, Michael J. Dziedzic and Eliot M. Goldberg (eds), Policing the New World Disorder: Peace Operations and Public Security (Washington, DC: National Defense University Press, 1998), p.96. J. Michael Turner, Sue Nelson and Kimberly Mahling-Clark, ‘Mozambique's Vote for Democratic Governance’, in Kumar (note 1). Manning (note 32) p.180. Robert D. Lloyd, ‘Mozambique: The Terror of War, the Tensions of Peace’, Current History Vol.94, No.591 (1995), p.154. Enrique A. Baloyra, ‘El Salvador: From Reactionary Despotism to Partidocracia’, in Kumar (note 1) p.21; Tommie Sue Montgomery with Ruth Reitan, ‘The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly: Observing Elections in El Salvador’, in Tommie Sue Montgomery (ed.), Peacemaking and Democratization in the Western Hemisphere (Miami: University of Miami North–South Center Press, 2000), pp.139–63. Montgomery, Revolution in El Salvador (note 27) p.247. See also William Stanley and David Holiday, ‘Peace Mission Strategy and Domestic Actors: UN Mediation, Verification, and Institution-Building in El Salvador’, International Peacekeeping, Vol.4, No.2 (1997), pp.22–49. Montgomery, Revolution in El Salvador (note 27) pp.233–4. Holiday and Stanley criticize COPAZ for its slow and cumbersome decisionmaking, compelling endless rounds of negotiations among parties. From the perspective of building new norms to demilitarize politics, such continuous discussion is a strong asset. See David Holiday and William Stanley, ‘Building the Peace: Preliminary Lessons from El Salvador’, Journal of International Affairs, Vol.46, No.2 (1993), pp.427–29. For a contrasting argument see Barbara F. Walter, ‘The Critical Barrier to Civil War Settlement’, International Organization, Vol.51, No.3 (1997), p. 335–64.