Produção Nacional
Probable monthly rainfall for machado county, south Minas Gerais state
2010; Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia do Sul de Minas Gerais; Volume: 2; Issue: 1 Linguagem: Inglês
10.18406/2316-1817v2n12010260
ISSN2316-1817
AutoresBruno Teixeira Ribeiro, Junior Cesar Avanz,
Tópico(s)Hydrology and Drought Analysis
ResumoProbabilistic studies of climatic variables (e.g., rainfall) are very important to farming planning. Machado County is located in the south of Minas Gerais State, Brazil, and it is characterized by intensive coffee production. The objectives of this work were to evaluate the suitability of Gamma distribution applied to monthly precipitation data and to estimate the probable monthly rainfall. Daily rainfall data obtained from the Brazilian National Water Agency (ANA) were summed in monthly periods from 1962 to 1998, resulting in a historical dataset with 37 years of observations. After that, the monthly rainfall data were applied to Gamma distribution and the probable rainfall estimated at different probability levels. The suitability of the Gamma distribution was evaluated by Qui-Square Test (λ 2 ). The Gamma distribution was adequate for monthly periods and can be used to estimate the probable rainfall and be employed in future related studies. The historical average rainfall has approximately 40% of probability to be overcome and its use may be not suitable for irrigation projects.
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