Artigo Revisado por pares

The Bear and the Dragon

2015; Routledge; Volume: 160; Issue: 1 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1080/03071847.2015.1022406

ISSN

1744-0378

Autores

Sarah Lain,

Resumo

AbstractAfter the deterioration of Russian–Western relations over Ukraine, Moscow has shown itself keen to reinvigorate its relationship with Beijing as a preferred partner – especially but not exclusively in the all-important energy sector. In addition, the two countries' common ambitions for a multipolar international structure enhance the mutual benefits of a strong partnership. Yet, Sarah Lain argues, the Sino–Russian relationship is characterised by increasing inequality, as Moscow finds itself needing Beijing more than Beijing needs Moscow. Notes1 Seth Faison, 'In Beijing, Yeltsin Finds Jiang Speaks His Language', New York Times, 11 November 1997.2 Michael L Levin, The Next Great Clash: China and Russia vs. the United States (Westport, CT: Praeger, 2008).3 For example, Susan Turner, 'Russia, China, and the Multipolar World Order: The Danger in the Undefined', Asian Perspectives (Vol. 33, No. 1, 2009), pp. 159–84.4 Elizabeth Wishnick, 'Russia and China: Brothers Again?' Asian Survey (Vol. 41, No. 5, 2001), pp. 797–821.5 Turner, 'Russia, China, and the Multipolar World Order'.6 Moscow Times, 'Medvedev: Russia Won't Close its Economy, Just Turning to Asia', 19 September 2014.7 James G Neuger, 'Guide to Possible EU Sanctions on Russia Over Ukraine', Bloomberg, 11 February 2015.8 Bobo Lo, 'China's Permanent Reset', Russia in Global Affairs (No. 3, 2010).9 Fiona Hill and Bobo Lo, 'Putin's Pivot: Why Russia is Looking East', Foreign Affairs, 31 July 2013.10 Alexander Gabuev, 'A "Soft Alliance"? Russia-China Relations After the Ukraine Crisis', ECFR Policy Paper, 10 February 2015.11 'Russia, China Sign $25b Oil Loan Deal', China Daily, 17 February 2009.12 Euromoney, 'China Helps Bridge Russia's Investment Gap', June 2014.13 Alexander Rybas, 'Breakthrough into the Global Arms Market', Russia in Global Affairs (No. 2, April–June 2008).14 Gilbert Rozman, 'Sino-Russian Relations: Will the Strategic Partnership Endure?', Demokratizatsiya (Vol. 6, No. 2, Spring 1998), p. 412.15 BP Conversion Calculator, accessed 18 February 2015.16 Rosneft, 'Rosnef t and CNPC Sign a Framework Agreement for the Purchase of 10% of Vankorneft', 9 November 2014.17 Xinhua, 'China's Natural Gas Demand to Top 550 bcm by 2030, Expert', 15 October 2014.18 US Energy Information Administration, 'Shale Oil and Shale Gas Resources are Globally Abundant', 14 June 2013, , accessed 18 February 2015.19 Stephen Blank, 'Pipeline to Nowhere: The Beijing-Moscow Dance Continues', World Affairs (March/April 2012).20 Centre for High Technology, 'Energeticheskaya Strategiya Rossii Na Period Do 2020 goda' [Energy Strategy of Russia for the Period Up Until 2020] May 2003, , accessed 18 February 2015.21 Anjli Raval and Ed Crooks, 'Europe Gas Demand to Stay Weak Until Mid-2030, Says IEA Economist', Financial Times, 23 October 2014.22 Catherine Belton and Ed Crooks, 'Gazprom Renegotiates EU Contracts', Financial Times, 26 February 2010.23 For example, in 2011 Russian media reported that Gazprom expected to come to an agreement by the end of the year on gas supplies following talks between Putin and the Chinese government: 'Gazprom i Kitay namereny do kontsa goda dogovoritsya o postavkakh' ['Gazprom and China Determined to Agree on Supply by the End of the Year'], 26 October 2011, , accessed 18 February 2015.24 Yun Sun, 'Gas Pains for China and Myanmar', Asia Times, 14 October 2014.25 Reuters, 'BP to Sign $20 Billion LNG Supply Deal with China's CNOOC', 17 June 2014.26 Merrick White and David Phua, 'Natural Gas Imports into China – Prospects for Growth', King and Spalding Energy Newsletter, September 2014.27 Elena Mazneva and Anna Shiryaevskaya, 'Gazprom's European Gas Exports Rise to Record as Price Reduced', Bloomberg Business, 30 December 2013.28 Iacob Koch-Weser and Craig Martin, 'The China-Russia Gas Deal: Background and Implications for the Broader Relationship', US–China Economic and Security Review Commission, 9 June 2014.29 Author interview with a European diplomat, Beijing, June 2014.30 Jack Farchy et al., 'Russia Cuts Off Gas Supplies to Ukraine', Financial Times, 16 June 2014.31 Rt.com, 'Putin: Russia, China Close to Reaching 2nd Mega Gas Deal', 7 November 2014.32 Mikhail Serov, 'Kitaitsy ne dali "Gazpromu" deneg na stroitelstva "Sili Sibiri"' ['Chinese Have Not Given Gazprom Money for Construction of the "Power of Siberia"'], Vedomosti, 24 September 2014, , accessed 18 February 2015.33 Petr Tretyakov, Margarita Papchenkova and Aleksandra Terentyeva, '"Gazprom" ne poluchit avansa po kontraktu c CNPC, "Silu Sibiri" postroyat na zaemniye dengi' ['Gazprom Will Not Receive an Advance for the Contract with CNPC, "Power of Siberia" Will be Built With Borrowed Money'], Vedomosti, 10 November 2014, , accessed 18 February 2015.34 Szymon Kardaś, 'The Eastern "Partnership" of Gas: Gazprom and CNPC Strike a Deal on Gas Supplies to China', OSW, 16 June 2014.35 Gazprom, 'Gazprom's Financial Information under International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) for the three months ended March 31, 2014', press release, 11 September 2014.36 Courtney Weaver, 'Russia to Dip Into Reserve Fund', Financial Times, 22 April 2013.37 Olga Tanas and Anna Andrianova, 'Russia Defends Ruble With Biggest Rate Rise Since 1998', Bloomberg Business, 15 December 2014.38 Interfax, 'Putin predlozhil dokapitalizirovat "Gazprom" radi finansirovaniya "Sili Sibiri" ['Putin Recommends Recapitalisation of Gazprom to fund "Power of Siberia"'], 4 June 2014.39 Elizabeth Wishnick, 'The "Power 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to $200 mln in 2014', 28 September 2014; Tass, 'Trade Turnover between China's Heihe, Russia to Increase in 2014 — Heihe Mayor', 26 September 2014.46 Moscow Times, 'Chinese to Invest $10 Billion in Moscow-Kazan High-Speed Railway', 9 September 2014.47 Sean Martin, 'China and Russia Planning $230bn Moscow-Beijing High Speed Rail Link', International Business Times, 17 October 2014.48 Tass, 'Rossiya i kitay uchredili kompaniyu dlya stroitelstva mosta cherez reku Amur' ['Russia and China Establish Company to Build a Bridge Across Amur River'], 26 September 2014.49 Bloomberg News, 'Russia-China Gas Pact Stirs Dream of Bridge Across Amur', 6 June 2014.50 Andrew S Bowen and Luke Rodeheffer, 'Is Russia Losing Control of its Far East?', Diplomat, 1 October 2013.51 Andrei P Tsygankov, The Strong State in Russia: Development and Crisis (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2014).52 Dmitri Trenin, 'Russia's Growing China Connection', China Daily, 13 October 2014.53 David Stanway, 'Insight: For Chinese Farmers, a Rare Welcome in Russia's Far East', Reuters, 22 December 2013.54 Jack Farchy, Kathrin Hille, 'Chinese Lenders Grow Wary of Russia', Financial Times, 12 October 2014.55 Daily News, 'Putin, China's Xi Vow "Strategic" Support in First Meeting', 22 December 2013.56 Aleksandr Lukin, 'Russia's Image of China and Russian-Chinese Relations', East Asia (Vol. 17, No. 1, Spring 1999), pp. 5–39.57 'Vladimir Putin Meets with Members of the Valdai Discussion Club', transcript of the Final Plenary Session, Valdai Club, 25 October 2014.58 Linda Jakobson et al., 'China's Energy and Security Relations with Russia', SIPRI policy paper, 29 October 2011.59 Ian Black, 'Russia and China Veto UN Move to Refer Syria to International Criminal Court', Guardian, 22 May 2014.60 Lo, 'China's Permanent Reset'.61 Turner, 'Russia, China and the Multipolar World Order'.62 Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China, remarks by Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hong Lei, 17 March 2014, , accessed 18 February 2014.63 UN News Centre, 'UN Security Council Action on Crimea Referendum Blocked', 15 March 2014.64 Foreign Office, 'UK Responds to Russia's Security Council Veto on Ukraine Resolution', press release, 15 March 2014.65 Madina Shavlokhova, 'Politicheskuyu pobedu mi oderzhali' ['We Won a Political Victory'], Vzglyad, 27 March 2014, , accessed 18 February 2015.66 Xinhuanet, 'West Denies Crimea Referendum, China Calls for De-escalation of Crimea Crisis', 17 March 2014.67 China Daily, 'Chinese Envoy Urges Political Solution to Ukraine Crisis', 4 March 2014.68 Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, 'O telefonom razgovore ministrov inostrannikh del Rossii i Kitaya' ['On the Telephone Conversation between the Ministers of Foreign Affairs of Russia and China'], press release, 3 March 2014, , accessed 19 February 2015.69 Tribune, 'China Backs "Principles" on Ukraine as Russia Claims Agreement', 3 March 2014.70 Bobo Lo, 'Russia, China and the Georgia Dimension', Centre for European Reform, 1 October 2008.71 Zachary Keck, 'US Drives Down Global Defence Spending', Diplomat, 15 April 2014.72 Richard Weitz, 'Why China Snubs Russia Arms', Diplomat, 5 April 201073 Alexander Rybas, 'Breakthrough into the Global Arms Market', Russia in Global Affairs (No. 2, April/June 2008).74 Tass, 'Russia, China Seek to Form Asia-Pacific Collective Security System – Defence Minister', 18 November 2014.75 Paul N Schwartz, 'Russia Announces Sale of S-400 to China', CSIS, 30 June 2014.76 Nikolai Novichkov and James Hardy, 'Russia Ready to Supply "Standard" Su-35s to China, Says Official', IHS Jane's 360, 25 November 2014.77 Nikolai Novichkov and James Hardy, 'Russia Ready to Supply "Standard" Su-35s to China, Says Official', IHS Jane's 360, 25 November 2014.78 Sam LaGrone, 'China and Russia Kick Off Joint Naval Drills', USNI News, 21 May 2014.79 Moscow Times, 'Japan's Abe Looks to Settle Territorial Dispute With Russia Over Kuril Islands', 2 December 2014.80 Vladimir Mukhin, 'Dlya voennikh korabley – lgotniye tarifi' ['For Warships – Preferential Tariffs'], Nezavizimaya Gazeta, 7 August 2013, , accessed 18 February 2015.81 Greg Torode, 'Vietnam Building Deterrent against China in Disputed Seas with Submarines', Reuters, 7 September 2014.82 Ridzwan Rahmat, 'Russia Lays Down Vietnam's Final Kilo-class Submarine', IHS Jane's Defence Weekly, 8 June 2014.83 Ali Wyne,' The Limits of China-Russia Cooperation', Wall Street Journal, 22 May 2014.84 Stephen Blank, 'Russia and Vietnam Team Up to Balance China', National Interest, 7 April 2014.85 Alex Cooley, Great Games, Local Rules: The New Great Power Contest in Central Asia (New York, NY: Oxford University Press, 2012), p. 86.86 'China Pledges $40bn for Silk Road Plan Ahead of APEC Summit', Times of India, 9 November 2014.87 Raffaello Pantucci and Alexandros Peterson, 'Russia's Eastern Anxieties', New York Times, 17 October 2011.88 Raffaello Pantucci and Alexandros Peterson, 'Russia's Eastern Anxieties', New York Times, 17 October 2011.89 Radio Free Europe, 'UN Passes Resolution Calling Crimean Referendum Invalid', 27 March 2014.90 Address of President Islam Karimov on Celebrations Dedicated to 23 years of Independence of the Republic of Uzbekistan ('Vistupleniye prezidenta Islama Karimova na torzhestvakh, posvyashchennikh 23-letiyu nezavisimosti respubliki uzbekistan'), 1 September 2014, , accessed 18 February 2015.91 All Russian Youth Forum "Seliger 2014" (Vserossiyskiy molodyozhniy forum "Seliger-2014"'), 29 August 2014, , accessed 18 February 2015.92 Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China, 'President Xi Jinping Delivers Important Speech and Proposes to Build a Silk Road Economic Belt with Central Asian Countries', press release, 7 September 2013.93 Eurasia News, 'Remittances by Central Asian Migrants Working in Russia Decline', 24 September 2014.94 Jack Farchy and Delphine Strauss, 'Kazakhstan Devalues Tenge by Almost 20%', Financial Times, 11 February 2014.95 Tass, 'No Option for Kyrgyzstan But to Join Customs Union – Kyrgyzstan President', 27 October 2014.96 Tolognai Osmongazieva, 'Bekeshev zapodozril pravitelstvo v namerenii prodat aeroport "Manas"' [Bekeshev Suspected the Government of Planning to Sell Manas Airport'], Vecherniy Bishkek, 27 February 2014, , accessed 18 February 2015.97 Eurasianet, 'China Leads Russia in Contest for Kyrgyzstan's Airports', 8 July 2014.Additional informationNotes on contributorsSarah LainSarah Lain is a Research Fellow in the International Security Studies Programme at RUSI. She specialises in Russia and the former Soviet Union. Prior to joining RUSI, Sarah worked in corporate intelligence at KPMG and previously at Control Risks, conducting integrity due diligence and fraud investigations, with a focus on Russia and the CIS.

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