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A new method to assess the risk of local and widespread flooding on rivers and coasts

2010; Wiley; Volume: 3; Issue: 4 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1111/j.1753-318x.2010.01081.x

1753-318X

Rob Lamb, Caroline Keef, Jonathan A. Tawn, Stefan Laeger, Ian Meadowcroft, S. Surendran, P. J. Dunning, Crispian Batstone,

Climate variability and models

Abstract To date, national‐ and regional‐scale flood risk assessments have provided valuable information about the annual expected consequences of flooding, but not the exposure to widespread concurrent flooding that could have damaging consequences for people and the economy. We present a new method for flood risk assessment that accommodates the risk of widespread flooding. It is based on a statistical conditional exceedance model, which is fitted to gauged data and describes the joint probability of extreme river flows or sea levels at multiple locations. The method can be applied together with data from models for flood defence systems and economic damages to calculate a risk profile describing the probability distribution of economic losses or other consequences aggregated over a region. The method has the potential to augment national or regional risk assessments of expected annual damage with new information about the likelihoods, extent and impacts of events that could contribute to the risk.