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Coherent Analysis of Forensic Identification Evidence

1996; Oxford University Press; Volume: 58; Issue: 2 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1111/j.2517-6161.1996.tb02091.x

1467-9868

A. P. Dawid, Julia Mortera,

Bayesian Methods and Mixture Models

SUMMARY A murder has been committed and there is a known population of possible suspects. The identification evidence available, based on information at the scene of the crime, is that the criminal may have a certain characteristic. Information may also be available on a set of suspects about which of them have the characteristic. We discuss the problem of assessing who is the guilty party, taking particular account of the following complicating features: the evidence at the scene of the crime may be unreliable; the suspects examined may have been chosen by means of a search process, which might itself be informative. We also examine the effect of the assumed population dependence structure for the relevant identification characteristics.