Defeating Colombia's Oldest Insurgency
2013; Routledge; Volume: 158; Issue: 1 Linguagem: Inglês
10.1080/03071847.2013.774636
ISSN1744-0378
Autores Tópico(s)History and Politics in Latin America
ResumoAbstract The decision to enter into peace negotiations with the FARC represents the latest in a series of attempts by Colombia's Santos administration to prioritise political over military activities in seeking an end to the country's internal conflict. Yet despite favourable political conditions, a number of major challenges remain which could prevent a meaningful peace settlement from coming to fruition. Matt Ince argues that the single largest obstacle in this regard is the potential for the talks to cause fragmentation within the FARC, an outcome that could impede its leaders in negotiating a settlement viewed as legitimate by the entire organisation, while opening the door to the emergence of FARC splinter groups in the period ahead. Notes 1. SIPRI Military Expenditure Database, SIPRI, 2012, , accessed 23 January 2013. 2. Also formed in the 1960s, the ELN is Colombia's second-largest guerrilla group behind the FARC, with an estimated 2,500 active combatants. See Colombia Reports, 'Colombia Govt to Discuss Peace with ELN Guerrillas in Cuba', 30 November 2012, , accessed 23 January 2013. 3. David R Mares, Latin America and the Illusion of Peace (London: IISS/ Routledge, 2012), p. 97. 4. United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, 'Estimating Illicit Financial Flows Resulting from Drug Trafficking and Other Transnational Organized Crimes', October 2011, p. 56, , accessed 23 January 2013. 5. See InSight Crime's online profile of the FARC, , accessed 23 January 2013. 6. Corporación Nuevo Arco Iris, 'Informe anual – Política y violencia 2011 – "Las cuentas no son tan alegres"', February 2012, p. 17, , accessed 22 January 2013. 7. Olle Ohlsen Pettersson, 'Rise in FARC, ELN Attacks Hits Wallet of Colombia's Oil, Mining Industries', Colombia Reports, 10 August 2012, , accessed 26 September 2012. 8. Adriaan Alsema, 'Electricity Returns to Southwestern Colombian Town 16 Days after FARC Attack', Colombia Reports, 25 August 2012, , accessed 26 September 2012. 9. Joey O'Gorman, 'FARC Makes Up to $3.5B from Narco-Trafficking: Defense Minister', Colombia Reports, 24 October 2012, , accessed 26 November 2012. 10. Edward Fox, 'Illegal Mining Colombia's Biggest Challenge: Police Chief', InSight Crime, 23 April 2012, , accessed 30 January 2013. 11. International Crisis Group (ICG), 'Dismantling Colombia's New Illegal Armed Groups: Lessons from a Surrender', Latin America Report No. 41, 8 June 2012, p. 2. 12. Olle Ohlsen Pettersson, 'Criminal Groups Active in 10% of Colombia: Defense Minister', Colombia Reports, 28 January 2013, , accessed 30 January 2013. 13. Olle Ohlsen Pettersson, 'Criminal Groups Active in 10% of Colombia: Defense Minister', Colombia Reports, 28 January 2013, , accessed 30 January 2013., p. 1. 14. ICG, 'Dismantling Colombia's New Illegal Armed Groups', p. 2. 15. ICG, 'Colombia: Peace at Last?', Latin America Report No. 45, 25 September 2012, p. 22. 16. Jeremy McDermott, 'Hybrid Cartels: Colombian Organised Crime Networks', Jane's Intelligence Review, August 2012, pp. 40–45. 17. Adriaan Alsema, 'FARC Demands Rigid Socio-Economic Reforms as Colombia Peace Talks Start', Colombia Reports, 18 October 2012, , accessed 4 February 2013. 18. Olle Ohlsen Pettersson, 'FARC Violence Diminished 80%: NGO', Colombia Reports, 8 January 2013, , accessed 30 January 2013. 19. Adriaan Alsema, 'FARC Carried Out 57 Attacks During Ceasefire: Ombudsman', Colombia Reports, 19 January 2013, , accessed 30 January 2013. 20. Semana, 'Frente de las FARC dice que atacó torres de energía en Antioquia porque no sabía del cese al fuego', 25 November 2012, , accessed 30 January 2013. 21. Wesley Tomaselli, 'FARC Denies Increase in Arms Purchases', Colombia Reports, 16 January 2013, , accessed 30 January 2012. 22. Olle Ohlsen Pettersson, 'Renewed FARC Violence Exceeds Pre-Peace Talks Levels', Colombia Reports, 27 January 2013, , accessed 30 January 2013. 23. BBC News, 'Colombia's FARC to Continue Targeting Military Personnel', 30 January 2013. 24. BBC News, 'Colombia Peace Talks "in Mambo Rhythm", Say FARC Rebels', 25 January 2013. 25. Olle Ohlsen Pettersson, 'FARC Presents Last Rural Development Proposals', Colombia Reports, 24 January 2013, , accessed 30 January 2013. 26. BBC News, 'Colombia Peace Talks: Government Sets Deadline for FARC', 3 December 2012. 27. Ministerio de Defensa Nacional de la República de Colombia, 'Política Integral de Seguridad y Defensa para la Prosperidad', May 2011, , accessed 30 January 2013. For the Executive Summary in English, see , accessed 30 January 2013. 28. Driven primarily through the development of five key locomotives: mining, agriculture, housing, innovation and infrastructure. See President Juan Manuel Santos, 'Leading Colombia Towards Prosperity for All', remarks made at the London School of Economics and Political Science, 22 November 2011. 29. El Heraldo, 'Gobierno sancionó la nueva Ley de Vivienda', 20 June 2012, , accessed 30 June 2013. 30. El Heraldo, 'Gobierno sancionó la nueva Ley de Vivienda', 20 June 2012, , accessed 30 June 2013.; Olle Ohlsen Pettersson, '1.8 Million New Jobs Created in 2 Years: Santos', Colombia Reports, 14 August 2012, , accessed 25 January 2013. 31. BBC News, '"Historic" Colombian Victims' Law Signed', 11 June 2011. 32. El Espectador, 'Operación Espada de Honor', 18 February 2012, , accessed 25 January 2013. 33. Naomi Mapstone, 'Security: Gang Rivals Reinvent Themselves as Partners in Crime', Financial Times, 8 May 2012. 34. See Stratfor, 'Economic Interests and FARC Activities in Colombia', 28 March 2012, , accessed 30 January 2013. 35. This policy saw the military launch a series of operations to remove members of the group's Joint General Staff and secretariat, including Raúl Reyes in March 2008 (the same month that Manuel Marulanda, the FARC's founder, died of natural causes), military commander Mono Jojoy in September 2010, and Marulanda's successor as supreme leader, Alfonso Cano, in November 2011. 36. Elyssa Pachico, 'Colombia to Expand Armed Forces by 25,000 Troops', InSight Crime, 1 November 2012, , accessed 25 January 2013. 37. El Tiempo, 'El 74,2% apoyaría un diálogo con las Farc, según encuesta', 25 August 2012. 38. ICG, 'Colombia: Peace at Last?', pp. 9–10. 39. Commanders of financing fronts are believed to enjoy greater independence than some of their counterparts. 40. El Espectador, 'Operación Espada de Honor'. 41. InSight Crime, 'FARC Clash with Rastrojos in Cauca', 14 February 2011, , accessed 25 January 2013. 42. The FARC and the BACRIMs, including Los Urabeños and Los Rastrojos, reportedly control illegal mining operations in 489 of the country's 1,100 municipalities through the imposition of protection payments or taxation of the equipment used to operate mines. See Edward Fox, 'Armed Groups Control Illegal Mines in Half of Colombia', InSight Crime, 31 January 2012, , accessed 25 January 2013. 43. Simon Willis, 'FARC Shut Down West Colombia', Colombia Reports, 12 November 2012, , accessed 25 January 2013. 44. See El Heraldo, 'Policía descubre arsenal de las FARC y "Los Rastrojos", en Cali', 23 April 2012; Semana, 'Farc y "Rastrojos" serían autores de atentado en Tumaco: Mindefensa', 1 February 2012. 45. El Espectador, 'Tension en Cauca y Valle se debe al matrimonio criminal entre FARC y BACRIM', 2 November 2012, , accessed 25 January 2013. 46. Adriaan Alsema, 'Colombia's National University to Host Public Peace Talks Forum', Colombia Reports, 29 November 2012, , accessed 25 January 2013. 47. Mariel Perez-Santiago, 'Colombia's BACRIM: Common Criminals or Actors in Armed Conflict?', InSight Crime, 23 July 2012 , accessed 25 January 2013. 48. Arturo Wallace, 'Colombia Security Key as President Santos Hits Mid-Term', BBC Mundo, 7 August 2012, , accessed 25 January 2013. Additional informationNotes on contributorsMatt Ince Matt Ince is project manager for International Security Studies at RUSI, specialising in foreign, defence and security policy in Latin America and the Caribbean. He holds an MA in Geopolitics and Grand Strategy and a BA (Hons) in International Relations from the University of Sussex
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