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Previsão do preço do milho, através de séries temporais

2014; Associação Sergipana de Ciências; Volume: 10; Issue: 10 Linguagem: Inglês

1808-2793

Cleiton Tibulo, Vaneza De Carli Tibulo,

Agricultural and Food Sciences

Corn is a major crop of Brazilian agribusiness in both productivity and profitability and has gained space between the other cultures mainly in Rio Grande do Sul, where comes the traditional culture of wheat replacing. The importance of this crop is given by the fact that it can be used for various purposes from the food to the animal. Due to great economic influence of culture to the national and regional scenario this work addressed a comparison between the models of ARIMA time series and Holt-Winters exponential smoothing applied to historical series of monthly average price of maize in Rio Grande do Sul. The analysis of the results showed that the model Holt-Winters additive even for very little difference showed best results for corn price forecasts in comparison to the fitted model ARIAMA (1.1, 2).