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Uncertainty modeling and visualization for tsunami hazard and risk mapping: a case study for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

2015; Springer Science+Business Media; Volume: 30; Issue: 8 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1007/s00477-015-1146-x

1436-3259

Katsuichiro Goda, Jie Song,

Geological and Geochemical Analysis

This study presents a rigorous computational framework for visualizing uncertainty of tsunami hazard and risk assessment. The methodology consists of three modules: (i) earthquake source characterization and stochastic simulation of slip distribution, (ii) tsunami propagation and inundation, and (iii) tsunami damage assessment and loss estimation. It takes into account numerous stochastic tsunami scenarios to evaluate the uncertainty propagation of earthquake source characteristics in probabilistic tsunami risk analysis. An extensive Monte Carlo tsunami inundation simulation is implemented for the 2011 Tohoku tsunami (focusing upon on Rikuzentakata along the Tohoku coast of Japan) using 726 stochastic slip models derived from eleven inverted source models. By integrating the tsunami hazard results with empirical tsunami fragility functions, probabilistic tsunami risk analysis and loss estimation are carried out; outputs from the analyses are displayed using various visualization methods. The developed framework is comprehensive, and can provide valuable insights in promoting proactive tsunami risk management and in improving emergency response capability.