Produção Nacional
Revisado por pares
Dengue transmission during the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Brazil
2015; Elsevier BV; Volume: 15; Issue: 7 Linguagem: Inglês
10.1016/s1473-3099(15)00073-0
ISSN1474-4457
AutoresMaíra Aguiar, Giovanini Evelim Coelho, Filipe Rocha, Luís Mateus, José Eduardo Marques Pessanha, Nico Stollenwerk,
Tópico(s)Viral Infections and Vectors
Resumo1 million foreign tourists visited Brazil during the FIFA World Cup 2014. From a brief analysis of the mean and standard deviation statistics from the available Brazilian data of confirmed dengue cases,1Ministry of Health BrazilSistema de Informaçao de Agravos de Notificação – SINAN.http://dtr2004.saude.gov.br/sinanweb/Date: 2015Google Scholar a paper published before the event2Hay S Football fever could be a dose of dengue.Nature. 2013; 503: 439Crossref PubMed Scopus (20) Google Scholar stated that travellers would be exposed to a high risk of dengue infection in the cities of Fortaleza, Natal, and Salvador during the tournament. Another analysis based on seasonal climate forecasts3Lowe R Barcellos C Coelho C et al.Dengue outlook for the World Cup in Brazil: an early warning model framework driven by real-time seasonal climate forecasts.Lancet Infect Dis. 2014; 14: 619-626Summary Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (99) Google Scholar estimated a high risk of infection in Recife, Fortaleza, and Natal. More recently, the number of cases in foreign tourists during the FIFA World Cup was estimated to be 33 in 607 051 visitors, with the highest risk of infection in Fortaleza and Natal.4Massad E Burattini MN Ximenes R Amaku M Wilder-Smith A Dengue outlook for the World Cup in Brazil.Lancet Infect Dis. 2014; 14: 552-553Summary Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (11) Google Scholar These studies alarmed football fans and public health authorities, and eventually affected local intervention strategies. But was dengue ultimately a threat during the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Brazil? Our report published earlier this year,5Aguiar M Rocha F Pessanha JEM et al.Carnival or football, is there a real risk for acquiring dengue fever in Brazil during holidays seasons?.Sci Rep. 2015; 5: 8462Crossref PubMed Scopus (21) Google Scholar showed that football fans were not likely to get dengue during the tournament period. An analysis of confirmed cases of dengue between 2001 and 20141Ministry of Health BrazilSistema de Informaçao de Agravos de Notificação – SINAN.http://dtr2004.saude.gov.br/sinanweb/Date: 2015Google Scholar, 6Coordenação Geral do Programa Nacional de Controle da DengueMinistry of Health Brazil.http://portalsaude.saude.gov.br/index.php/o-ministerio/principal/secretarias/svs/dengueGoogle Scholar shows that the risk of acquiring dengue in Brazil is seasonal, and increases during the rainy season, from mid-September until mid-May, when vector infestation grows substantially. The density of cases becomes residual in June–August (appendix), and during the World Cup period (June 12–July 13, 2014), only Fortaleza reported a small outbreak of 0·4 cases per 1000 inhabitants. Natal, Recife, and Salvador, with fewer than 0·08 cases per 1000 inhabitants (table), had a very low risk of infection, as we predicted in our analysis.5Aguiar M Rocha F Pessanha JEM et al.Carnival or football, is there a real risk for acquiring dengue fever in Brazil during holidays seasons?.Sci Rep. 2015; 5: 8462Crossref PubMed Scopus (21) Google Scholar For the Olympic Games, which will take place in Rio de Janeiro in August, 2016, the risk of dengue infection is close to zero since the density of cases will be negligible.TableNumber of confirmed dengue cases per 1000 inhabitants in Brazilian cities in 2014Population (n)7Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE).http://www.cidades.ibge.gov.br/xtras/home.php?lang=_ENDate: 2015Google ScholarCases per 1000 inhabitants in each monthJuneJulyAugustBelo Horizonte2 375 1510·120·040·01Brasília2 570 1600·620·250·06Cuiabá551 0980·20·160·18Curitiba1 751 907000Fortazela2 452 1850·430·320·19Manaus1 802 0140·050·020·01Natal803 7390·040·060·04Porto Alegre1 409 351000Recife1 537 7040·050·040·02Rio de Janeiro6 320 446000Salvador2 675 6560·080·050·02São Paulo11 253 5030·10·030 Open table in a new tab So far, only three cases of dengue were confirmed during the 2014 FIFA World Cup:6Coordenação Geral do Programa Nacional de Controle da DengueMinistry of Health Brazil.http://portalsaude.saude.gov.br/index.php/o-ministerio/principal/secretarias/svs/dengueGoogle Scholar one Japanese and two US citizens; all three cases occurred in Belo Horizonte, which was never regarded as an area of risk during the tournament. The present Brazilian vector control strategy is recommended by WHO and is implemented throughout the year. Based on our report,5Aguiar M Rocha F Pessanha JEM et al.Carnival or football, is there a real risk for acquiring dengue fever in Brazil during holidays seasons?.Sci Rep. 2015; 5: 8462Crossref PubMed Scopus (21) Google Scholar we can state that intensification of dengue preventive measures in Brazil is done during the correct period of the year, well before the rainy season starts. Efforts to avoid dengue transmission during the winter in the southern hemisphere represent unnecessary costs, since vector density is low and no notable transmission is happening. These conclusions are very important for the effectiveness of the intervention measures provided by the public health authorities for dengue control in Brazil, and to understand the economic consequences that inaccurate predictions of infection risk could cause. Dengue surveillance data were provided by the Brazilian Ministry of Public Health (SINAN), by the Secretaria Municipal de Saúde de Belo Horizonte (Minas Gerais, Brazil), and by the Coordenação Geral do Programa Nacional de Controle da Dengue, Ministério da Saúde (Brasília, DF, Brazil). The research was funded by DENFREE (grant 282378) and supported by Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (grant UID/MAT/04561/2013). We declare no competing interests. Download .pdf (.63 MB) Help with pdf files Supplementary appendix
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