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Predicting the potential long-term influence of climate change on vendace (Coregonus albula) habitat in Bassenthwaite Lake, U.K.

2010; Wiley; Volume: 56; Issue: 2 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1111/j.1365-2427.2010.02506.x

1365-2427

J. Alex Elliott, Victoria A. Bell,

Aquatic Invertebrate Ecology and Behavior

Freshwater BiologyVolume 56, Issue 2 p. 395-405 Predicting the potential long-term influence of climate change on vendace (Coregonus albula) habitat in Bassenthwaite Lake, U.K. J. ALEX ELLIOTT, J. ALEX ELLIOTT Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Lancaster, Bailrigg, Lancashire, U.K.Search for more papers by this authorVICTORIA A. BELL, VICTORIA A. BELL Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Wallingford, Wallingford, Oxon, U.K.Search for more papers by this author J. ALEX ELLIOTT, J. ALEX ELLIOTT Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Lancaster, Bailrigg, Lancashire, U.K.Search for more papers by this authorVICTORIA A. BELL, VICTORIA A. BELL Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Wallingford, Wallingford, Oxon, U.K.Search for more papers by this author First published: 30 September 2010 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2427.2010.02506.xCitations: 23 J. A. Elliott, Algal Modelling Unit, Lake Ecosystem Group, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Lancaster, Library Avenue, Bailrigg, Lancashire LA1 4AP, U.K. E-mail: [email protected] Read the full textAboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onEmailFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditWechat Summary 1. The long-term suitability of Bassenthwaite Lake as a habitat for vendace (Coregonus albula) was assessed using two models. The first was the phytoplankton model (PROTECH) that provided temperature and phytoplankton biomass outputs that were used to drive a second model of lake oxygen (LOX). 2. Both temperature and oxygen concentrations were used to define the available habitat for the adult vendace, using 18 °C as an upper and 2 mg L−1 as a lower threshold, respectively. The outputs of both models were compared with 4 years of observed data for the purposes of validation and produced good simulations of water temperature, total chlorophyll a and oxygen concentrations in the epilimnion, hypolimnion and at the lake bottom. 3. Using the outputs of a regional climate model (RCM) simulating 20 years of both present and future climate conditions for this part of the United Kingdom, both models were re-run. These data suggest the future climate will cause a mean increase of >2 °C in water temperature, little change in overall phytoplankton biomass and a 10% decline in oxygen concentration. 4. Using the thresholds defined above, the habitat volume will decline greatly under the future climate scenarios, with all of the 20 years simulated having periods of zero habitat volume for >7 consecutive days, primarily caused by high temperature. These results suggest that the long-term viability of the lake as a habitat for this rare fish is extremely low. References Bell V.A., George D.G., Moore R.J. & Parker J. (2006) Using a 1-D mixing model to simulate the vertical flux of heat and oxygen in a lake subject to episodic mixing. Ecological Modelling, 190, 41–54. Bernhardt J., Elliott J.A. & Jones I.D. (2008) Modelling the effects on phytoplankton communities of changing mixed depth and background extinction coefficient on three contrasting lakes in the English Lake District. Freshwater Biology, 53, 2573–2586. Dembinski W. (1971) Vertical distribution of vendace Coregonus albula L. and other pelagic fish species in some Polish lakes. Journal of Fish Biology, 3, 341–357. 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