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Region-wide synchrony and traveling waves of dengue across eight countries in Southeast Asia

2015; National Academy of Sciences; Volume: 112; Issue: 42 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1073/pnas.1501375112

1091-6490

Willem G. van Panhuis, Marc Choisy, Xin Xiong, Nian Shong Chok, Pasakorn Akarasewi, Sopon Iamsirithaworn, Sai Kit Lam, Chee Kheong Chong, Fook C. Lam, Bounlay Phommasak, Phengta Vongphrachanh, Bouaphanh Khamphaphongphane, Rekol Huy, Nguyễn Trần Hiển, Phạm Quang Thái, Trần Như Dương, Jen-Hsiang Chuang, Yu-Lun Liu, Lee Ching Ng, Yuan Shi, Enrique Tayag, Vito G. Roque, Lyndon Lee Suy, Richard G. Jarman, Robert V. Gibbons, John Mark Velasco, In-Kyu Yoon, Donald S. Burke, Derek A. T. Cummings,

Viral Infections and Vectors

Significance Persons living in the tropics and subtropics are at risk for dengue fever and dengue hemorrhagic fever, and large epidemics occur unexpectedly that can overburden healthcare systems. The spatial and temporal dynamics of dengue transmission are poorly understood, limiting disease control efforts. We compiled a large-scale dataset and analyzed continental-scale patterns of dengue in Southeast Asia. Our analysis shows that periods of elevated temperatures can drive the occurrence of synchronous dengue epidemics across the region. This multicountry collaborative study improved insight that may lead to improved prediction of dengue transmission patterns and more effective disease surveillance and control efforts.