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The false consensus effect: A meta-analysis of 115 hypothesis tests

1985; Elsevier BV; Volume: 21; Issue: 3 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1016/0022-1031(85)90020-4

1096-0465

Brian Mullen, Jennifer L Atkins, Debbie S Champion, Cecelia Edwards, Dana Hardy, John E Story, Mary Vanderklok,

Social and Intergroup Psychology

False consensus refers to an egocentric bias that occurs when people estimate consensus for their own behaviors. Specifically, the false consensus hypothesis holds that people who engage in a given behavior will estimate that behavior to be more common than it is estimated to be by people who engage in alternative behaviors. A meta-analysis was conducted upon 115 tests of this hypothesis. The combined effects of the tests of the false consensus hypothesis were highly statistically significant and of moderate magnitude. Further, the 115 tests of false consensus appear to be relatively heterogeneous in terms of significance levels and effect sizes. Correlational analyses and focused comparisons indicate that the false consensus effect does not appear to be influenced by the generality of the reference population, nor by the difference between alternative choices in actual consensus. However, the significance and magnitude of the false consensus effect was significantly predicted by the number of behavioral choices/estimates subjects had to make, and the sequence of measurement of choices and estimates. These patterns of results are interpreted as being inconsistent with the self-presentational, motivational explanation for the false consensus effect.