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Building and analyzing timed influence net models with internet-enabled pythia

2007; SPIE; Volume: 6564; Linguagem: Inglês

10.1117/12.719022

1996-756X

Peter W. Pachowicz, Lee W. Wagenhals, John Pham, Alexander H. Levis,

Cognitive Science and Mapping

The most recent client-server version of Pythia modeling software is presented. Pythia is a software implementation of a Bayesian Net framework and is used for course of action development, evaluation, and selection in the context of effects-based planning. A new version, Pythia 1.5, is a part of a larger suite of tools for behavioral influence analysis, brought into the state-of-the-art client-server computing environment. This server application for multi-user and multiprocess computing relies on the Citrix Presentation Server for integration, security and maintenance. While Pythia's process is run on a server, the input/output services are controlled and displayed through a client PC. Example use of Pythia is illustrated through its application to a suppression of IED activity in an Iraqi province. This case study demonstrates how analysts can create executable (probabilistic) models that link potential actions to effects, based on knowledge about the cultural and social environment. Both the tool and the process for creating and analyzing the model are described as well as the benefits of using the new server based version of the tool.