IRA 2.0: Continuing the Long War—Analyzing the Factors Behind Anti-GFA Violence
2012; Taylor & Francis; Volume: 24; Issue: 3 Linguagem: Inglês
10.1080/09546553.2011.624862
ISSN1556-1836
Autores Tópico(s)Crime, Illicit Activities, and Governance
ResumoAbstract Despite an increasing number of attacks by violent anti-Good Friday Agreement (GFA) Republicans from 2009 there is still relatively little understanding of the nature of these organizations or the likely longevity of their campaign(s). This analysis argues that the current upsurge of violence is likely to continue for the foreseeable future, due to a combination of factors that entrench republican ideology. The fractured nature of anti-GFA groups and the declining stature of the Provisional movement are key factors that energize anti-agreement sentiment. In particular, this study identifies the Internet as one of the most significant emerging drivers in that it has the potential to sustain social networks that create and reinforce a traditional minded Irish Republican constituency implacably committed to using violence in pursuit of its goals. Keywords: Good Friday AgreementIrelandIrish Republican armyNorthern Ireland Notes Martyn Frampton, Return of the Militants: Violent Dissident Republicanism (London: International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation, 2010), pp. 7–9. "Northern Ireland, Dissident Members are Former IRA," BBC News, available at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-11058975 (accessed 10 May 2012). Jonathan Tonge, "'They Haven't Gone Away You Know': Irish Repubican Dissidents and the 'Armed Struggle,'" Terrorism and Political Violence 24, no. 5 (2004): 671–693; Ed Moloney, A Secret History of the IRA (New York: Norton 2003); John Mooney and Michael O'Toole, Black Operations: The Secret War Against the Real IRA (Ashborne, Co. Meath, Ireland: Maverick House, 2003). Martyn Frampton, The Return of the Militants: Violent Dissident Republicans (London: International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation, 2010); Martyn Frampton, Legion of the Rearguard: Dissident Irish Republicanism (Dublin: Irish Academic, 2011). Andrew Sanders, Inside the IRA: Dissident Republicans and the War for Legitimacy (Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press, 2011). The "Official" movement is included in the spectrum of Republicanism but left out of "The Republican Movement" as it is rarely considered to sit within this movement in the day-to-day parlance of the Republican movement. For example, there is no option on IR.NET to declare oneself as a member of the Official movement. Aims and Objectives of the Republican Network for Unity, available at http://www.republicannetwork.ie/aboutUs.aspx (last accessed 1 August 2010). Eighteenth Report of the Independent Monitoring Commission (London: The Stationary Office, 1 May 2008), 6, available at http://www.official-documents.gov.uk/document/hc0708/hc05/0502/0502.pdf (accessed 10 May 2012). Twenty-First Report of the Independent Monitoring Commission (London: The Stationary Office, 7 May 2009), available at http://cain.ulst.ac.uk/issues/politics/docs/imc/imc070509.pdf (accessed 10 May 2012). See www.realsinnfein.com. Poster available on Real Sinn Féin Website, www.realsinnfein.com. George Grivas (pseud.), "Reflecting on Factions," Saoirse, July 2010, available at http://republican.ie/forum/index.php?/topic/58397-reflecting-on-factions/ (accessed 10 May 2012). Interview with Des Dalton, President of RSF, 223 Parnell Street Dublin, 29 July 2010. Ibid. Ibid. See M. L. R. Smith, Fighting for Ireland? The Military Strategy of the Irish Republican Movement (London: Routledge, 1995), 81–90. Interview with Fra Halligan, member of the IRSP Executive, Costello House, 392 Falls Road, 22 June 2010. Ta Power Document, available at www.irsm.org/history/tapowerdoc.html (accessed 21 June 2010.). Interview with CIRA prisoner, Portlaoise Prison, 2 August 2010. Halligan interview (see note 17 above). TD stands for Teachta Dála, member of the Dáil. "O Bradaigh Quits as RSF President after 23 Years," Irish News, 28 September 2009, available at http://saoirse32.wordpress.com/2009/09/29/ (accessed 10 May 2012). Personal communication, Marian Price, National Secretary 32CSM, Anderstown, Belfast, 12 June 2010. Dalton interview (see note 13 above). The more recent the split the faster this bitterness comes to the surface. Many PSF members appear more aggressive towards éirigí than the Continuity movement. Personal communication, Marian Price. "RSF Call RIRA Traitors," Derry Journal, 6 April 2010, available at http://www.derryjournal.com/news/local/rsf-call-real-ira-traitors-1-2144946 (accessed 10 May 2012). Interview with Pádraig Ó Meiscill, éirígí spokesperson, Cultúrlann, 216 Falls Road Belfast, 2 August 2010. Interview with Republican Socialist Prisoner (IRSP) accused of INLA membership, Portlaoise Prison, 2 August 2010. "Red_Maggie" (pseud.), "Which Group Do You Support?" Main Forum, IR.NET, available at http://www.irishrepublican.net/forum/showthread.php?39847-Which-group-do-you-support/page23 (accessed 20 August 2010.) Interview with RIRA Prisoner, Portlaoise Prison, 17 June 2010. Twenty-First Report of the IMC (see note 9 above), 7. Twenty-Second Report of the Independent Monitoring Commission, 4 Nov., 2009, 6, available at http://www.irishtimes.com/focus/2009/imc/index.pdf (accessed 10 May 2012). "Adams Seeks Meetings with Dissident Groups," Irish Times, 6 August 2010. Ibid. Interview with Peter Taylor broadcast on BBC Northern Ireland, March 2009. David Martin Jones and M. L. R. Smith, "Greetings from the Cybercaliphate: Some Notes on Homeland Insecurity," International Affairs 81, no. 5 (2005): 925–950. Tim Stevens and Peter Neumann, Countering Online Radicalisation: A Strategy for Action (London: International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation, 2009), 12. Lorraine Bowman-Grieve, "Exploring 'Stormfront': A Virtual Community of the Radical Right," Studies in Conflict and Terrorism 24, no. 5 (2009): 989–1007. Stevens and Neumann (see note 38 above), 13. James Brandon, Virtual Caliphate: Islamic Extremists and their Websites (London: Centre for Social Cohesion, January 2008). One of the authors was granted access to the forum through the intervention of a contact within the Republican movement who was acquainted with one of the moderators. This came after several unsuccessful attempts to register unaided. To speak of "secure" forums is perhaps something of a misnomer. Restricting access to republican websites does not overcome the problem for republicans that state security services can easily access ISPs, monitor activity, and trace users. Once someone attempts to register an account, that account is created, awaiting confirmation and activation by the moderators. The total number of accounts created is visible on a toolbar. The total number of activated accounts is also visible. One can simply compare the two numbers. "Marky Mark" (pseud.), "The IRA's Green Book," Main Discussion Forum, Forum, IR.NET, available at http://www.irishrepublican.net/forum/showthread.php?18482-The-IRA-s-Green-Book (accessed 1 August 2010.). Interview RIRA Prisoner (see note 31 above). Active membership is defined as those who have posted over twenty times. These figures were reached through using the search function on the "Members" List section of the forum which is available to members, data accurate as of 22 July 2010. Marc Sageman, Understanding Terror Networks (Philadelphia, PA: Pennsylvania University Press, 2004), 163. See for example the blog used by the Cork 32CSM, which contains news of Cork events which are coming up and photos of previous events. Available at cork32.blogspot.com (accessed 16 August 2010.). Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Participative Web and User-Created Content: Web 2.0, Wikis and Social Networking (Paris: OECD, 2007), 17. Maura Conway and Lisa McInerney, Jihadi Video and Auto-Radicalisation: Evidence from an Exploratory YouTube Study (Dublin: School of Law and Government, Dublin City University, 2008), available at http://doras.dcu.ie/2253/2/youtube_2008.pdf (accessed 10 May 2012). Statement available at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YP00l1ukKUQ (accessed 3 August 2010.) Statement available at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J3mXaS_N4Q4 (accessed 17 August 2010.) See http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kOro2M6wcxQ (accessed 17 August 2010.). For example see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=thPJ_Q5DBP4 (accessed 15 August 2010.). Interview Alex Maskey MLA, Sinn Féin Policing Board Member, Sinn Féin Office, Ormeau Road, Belfast, 2 July 2010. Quoted in "Looking to the Past for Clues," BBC News, 6 June 2005, available at http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/4580177.stm (accessed 10 May 2012). See Henry McDonald, "Lucky Escape in Republican Car-bomb Attack on Derry Policy Station," Guardian, 3 August 2010, available at http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2010/aug/03/derry-officials-denounce-bomb-attack (accessed 10 May 2012). "Bigbhoy2010" (pseud.), "Car Bomb Explodes in Derry," Breaking News, Announcements, Forum, IR.NET, available at http://www.irishrepublican.net/forum/showthread.php?55283-Car-Bomb-Explodes-In-Derry (accessed 4 August 2010.). "finn-27" (pseud.), "Car Bomb Explodes in Derry," IR.NET, 2 August 2010. "gerard_black00" (pseud.), "Car Bomb Explodes in Derry," IR.NET, 2 August 2010. "LAW Car Bomb Explodes in Derry," IR.NET. Stevens and Neumann (see note 38 above), 13. "alanmc" (pseud.), "Car Bomb Explodes in Derry," IR.NET, 2 August 2010. "Markievicz" (pseud.), "Car Bomb Explodes in Derry," IR.NET, 2 August 2010. "LAW Car Bomb Explodes in Derry," IR.NET, 2 August 2010. According to the BBC Attitude Survey, which sampled opinion in Northern Ireland in 2006, support for RSF stood at 2.3 percent, and 0.6 percent for the 32CSM. The usual caveats apply in interpreting the evidence. It is possible that this might underestimate the levels of support with participants reluctant to identify with violent rejectionist parties, and polling evidence does not indicate what the levels of support are for these parties in the Irish Republic. Either way, it is probably safe to conclude that the overall levels of public support for anti-GFA groups in Northern Ireland, and quite possibly in the Irish Republic as well, scarcely range much beyond 5 percent of the population, and thus the popular constituency for the general anti-GFA cause, can be described as very limited. See BBC Attitude Survey: BBC Hearts and Minds November 2006, available at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/09_11_06_nireland_poll2.pdf, accessed 14 September 2011. Elsewhere other commentators suggest that all the anti-GFA groups comprise little more than 300 activists at most. See Eamonn McCann, "Real IRA's Lust for Violence Matters More than Ideology on the Streets," Guardian, 22 August 2010, available at http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2010/aug/22/northern-ireland-dissidents-peace-process (accessed 10 May 2012). John Mackinlay, The Insurgent Archipelago (London: Hurst, 2009), 149. Ruth Dudley Edwards, "The Terrible Legacy of Patrick Pearse," Irish Independent, 14 April 2001, available at http://www.independent.ie/unsorted/features/the-terrible-legacy-of-patrick-pearse-348632.html (accessed 10 May 2012). RIRA prisoner interview (see note 31 above). Ibid. Interview with CIRA prisoner (see note 19 above). Ibid. Interview with member of the Security Services, Linenhall Library, 10 July 2010. Emily A. Ravenscroft, Tiocfaidh Ár Lá: Masculinity, Memory and Authority in Contemporary Republican Belfast, Unpublished PhD Thesis (University of North Carolina, 2010), 94. An Phoblacht, 14 Nov. 2002. The narrative of an "undefeated army" is highly disputed. See for example, Henry McDonald, Gunsmoke and Mirrors: How Sinn Féin Dressed Up Defeat as Victory (Dublin: Gill and Macmillan, 2008). Interview with CIRA prisoner (see note 19 above). This is an observation trenchantly made by the former IRA member, Anthony McIntyre, in his review of Timothy Shanahan's book, The Provisional Irish Republican Army and the Morality of Terrorism. See Anthony McIntyre, Book Review, Democracy and Security 7, no. 3 (2011): 289-294. Jack Holland and Henry McDonald, INLA Deadly Divisions (Dublin: Torc, 1994), Ch 16. Security Services member interview (see note 74 above). Henry McDonald, "Killing Sparks Fear of Terror Feud," Observer, 15 Oct. 2000, available at http://irishfreedomcommittee.net/NEWS/GFA_ENFORCERS/oconnor_killing_sparks_terrorfued.htm (accessed 10 May 2012). Ravenscroft (see note 75 above), p. iii. Tenth Report of the Independent Monitoring Commission (London: The Stationary Office) 26 April, 2006, 3, available at http://cain.ulst.ac.uk/issues/politics/docs/imc/imc260406.pdf (accessed 10 May 2012). Security Services member interview (see note 74 above). Henry McDonald, "We've Lost Control of Ardoyne, IRA Warns," Observer, 5 April, 2009, available at http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/apr/05/ira-ardoyne-republican-belfast (accessed 10 May 2012). "The Road to Nowhere," Belfast Telegraph, 14 July 2010, available at http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/the-road-to-nowhere-14875860.html (accessed 10 May 2012). Maskey interview (see note 56 above). Liam Clarke and Kathryn Johnston, Martin McGuinness: From Guns to Government (Edinburgh: Mainstream, 2001). Cllr Louise Minihan quoted on the Political website, Slugger O Toole, available at http://sluggerotoole.com/2010/04/30/sinn-fein%E2%80%99s-hidden-crisis (accessed 12 August 2010.). Maskey interview (see note 56 above). Dalton interview (see note 13 above). The main website of the 32CSM (www.32csm.info) has links to all of the branches, which contain the date of set up. Between 2007 and 2008 the 32CSM seems to have over doubled in size. For a discussion of the "two peace processes" see Moloney (see note 3 above), 392–428. Additional informationNotes on contributorsRoss Frenett Ross Frenett is a project manager at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue (ISD) in London, where he runs the Against Violent Extremism (AVE) network, a global network of former violent extremists and survivors of extremism that are now working to bring youths away from violence. He earned his MA in Terrorism, Security and Society from King's College London. M. L. R. Smith M. L. R. Smith is a professor of strategic theory in the Department of War Studies, King's College, University of London. He is the author of Fighting For Ireland? The Military Strategy of the Irish Republican Movement (London and New York: Routledge, 1995 and 1997) and co-author of The Strategy of Terrorism: How It Works and Why It Fails (London: Routledge, 2008), among other publications.
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