Portal de Periódicos da CAPES

New Evidence on Fertility and Mortality Trends in India

1984; Wiley; Volume: 10; Issue: 3 Linguagem: Inglês

10.2307/1973516

1728-4457

Samuel H. Preston, P. N. Mari Bhat,

Global Maternal and Child Health

Only in the past 15 years have Indian date become rich and diverse enough to form a solid basis for estimating levels and trends in vital rates. However different data sources and techniques often point in different directions. The recent release of age distributions in a sample from the 1981 census of India helps to discriminate among the main competing interpretations of earlier data sets on fertility and mortality trends for the country. Moreover this set of data suggests that both fertility and mortality in India have fallen faster in recent years than is commonly believed. This paper uses data from the census the Sample Registration System and several earlier sample surveys to estimate recent mortality and fertility conditions for all India. The data sources and the estimates that they imply are described and their internal consistency examined. They are then integrated by means of a series of analytical processes that both test their validity and provide refined estimates. Integrative demograhic estimates are presented for 3 successive 5-year periods beginning with 1966-71 showing that fertility has declined substantially in India. The birth rate is estimated to have fallen from 41/1000 in 1961-71 to 34/1000 in 1976-81. The total fertility rate is estimated to have declined even faster from 5.60 births/woman in 1971-72 to 4.69 in 1978. The results also contradict the popular belief that the pace of mortality reduction in India has decelerated sharply. The death rate is estimated to have declined from approximately 19/1000 ind the mid 1960s to 134.4/1000 in the late 1970s. The expectation of life in the same period rose from 46 to 53.5 years. The evidence on child mortality is contradictory hence the difficulty of offering a definitive conclusion about either the level or the trend in child mortality in India. A tentative conclusion is that the probability of dying before age 2 declined from a value of about 0.215 in 1961 to about 0.143 in the mid-1970s. (summaries in ENG FRE SPA).