RESIDENTIAL ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION FORECASTING USING A GEOMETRIC COMBINATION APPROACH
2013; World Scientific; Volume: 01; Issue: 02 Linguagem: Inglês
10.1142/s2335680413500087
ISSN2335-6812
AutoresLuíz Albino Teixeira Júnior, Moisés Lima de Menezes, Keila Mara Cassiano, José Francisco Moreira Pessanha, Reinaldo Castro Souza,
Tópico(s)Advanced Image Fusion Techniques
ResumoInternational Journal of Energy and StatisticsVol. 01, No. 02, pp. 113-125 (2013) No AccessRESIDENTIAL ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION FORECASTING USING A GEOMETRIC COMBINATION APPROACHLUIZ ALBINO TEIXEIRA JÚNIOR, MOISÉS LIMA DE MENEZES, KEILA MARA CASSIANO, JOSÉ FRANCISCO MOREIRA PESSANHA, and REINALDO CASTRO SOUZALUIZ ALBINO TEIXEIRA JÚNIORElectrical Engineering Dept, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro — PUC-Rio, Rua Marquês de São Vicente, 225, Gávea, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, 11451-90, Brazil Search for more papers by this author , MOISÉS LIMA DE MENEZESElectrical Engineering Dept, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro — PUC-Rio, Rua Marquês de São Vicente, 225, Gávea, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, 11451-90, Brazil Search for more papers by this author , KEILA MARA CASSIANOElectrical Engineering Dept, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro — PUC-Rio, Rua Marquês de São Vicente, 225, Gávea, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, 11451-90, Brazil Search for more papers by this author , JOSÉ FRANCISCO MOREIRA PESSANHAInstitute of Mathematics and Statistics, Rio de Janeiro State University — UERJ, Rua São Francisco Xavier, 524, Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, 2055-013, Brazil Search for more papers by this author , and REINALDO CASTRO SOUZAElectrical Engineering Dept, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro — PUC-Rio, Rua Marquês de São Vicente, 225, Gávea, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, 11451-90, Brazil Search for more papers by this author https://doi.org/10.1142/S2335680413500087Cited by:11 PreviousNext AboutSectionsPDF/EPUB ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack CitationsRecommend to Library ShareShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditEmail AbstractThe forecasting of electricity consumption and demand plays a pivotal role in electric power systems planning. This paper proposes the combination of forecasts from two approaches with the aim of improving the forecasting accuracy, in order to make the best use of the installed transmission and generating capacity. In the first approach, the consumption time series is decomposed by wavelet analysis and a Box-Jenkins model is fitted to each wavelet component, following which the individual components forecasts are added to compute the total consumption forecast. The alternative approach, uses the Singular Spectrum Analysis technique to model the consumption time series in order to shrink the noise level. Thereafter, the Box-Jenkins model is used to forecast the filtered time series, producing a second forecast for the consumption series. Eventually, the two forecasts are combined geometrically in order to minimize the mean square error. The proposed methodology is illustrated by a computational experiment with the time series of residential consumption of electricity in Brazil.Keywords:Box-Jenkins modelWavelet theorySingular Spectrum AnalysisPoint forecastsGeometric combination References X. Wang and J. R. McDonald , Modern power system planning ( McGraw Hill , 1994 ) . Google Scholar Armstrong, S. J. (2004). Principles of forecasting: A handbook for Researchers and Practitioners. Massachusetts: Eletronic Services. Available at http://www.wkap.nl . Google ScholarI. Daubechies, Communications on Pure and Applied Mathematics 41(7), 909 (1988). Crossref, Google Scholar L. A. T. Junior , J. F. M. Pessanha and R. C. Souza , Wavelet analysis and Neural Network in wind speed forecasting , XVII Brazilian Symposium on Operational Research ( 2011 ) , http://www.xliiisbpo.iltc.br/pdf/87357.pdf . Google ScholarN. Levan and C. S. Kubrusly, Mathematics and Computers in Simulation 63(2), 73 (2003). Crossref, Google Scholar S. 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