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On Niall Ferguson's “Complexity and Collapse”

2010; Elsevier BV; Volume: 77; Issue: 8 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1016/j.techfore.2010.07.014

1873-5509

Theodore Modis,

Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis

does not "cycle" but social systems do exhibit regularities that need to be understood and can be referred to, metaphorically, as cycles, or waves though in fact they be signals of non-linear, S-shaped growth surges; the 'edge of chaos' regime stands for a region of movement and even turbulence that generates novelty and the possibility of evolutionary change.The social sciences identify systems whose understanding is called forsuch as the global polity as an emergent property of the world systemand processes that shape and reshape such systems in patterns of discernible regularity that resemble learning.Why is it important to insist on the correct usage of a key term such an empire, and why should others than political scientists care about that?It matters because empires tend to respond to crises differently from modern nation-states filling the role of global leadership.The financial crisis of 2008-9 is a case in point.The rupture in the financial system, both in the United States, and elsewhere proved to be severe, possibly the worst since the Great Depression of 1929-33, but at this time of writing (July 2010) it appears under control by flexible and adaptable national and international interventions.The current global political systemwhich is still one of global leadership though due for an overhaul in the foreseeable futurehas weathered the crisis.The United States' position in the world system has weakened somewhat but there has been no collapse."Not long after such crises happen, historians arrive on the scene."Niall Ferguson indeed has arrived on the scene, warning of another financial Armageddon, and voicing concern over the war in Afghanistan.These are important problems but they are also at the center of public scrutiny and unlikely to surprise.An imminent replay of the financial turmoil of two years ago in the shape of a deficit-induced collapse does not seem at this time to be probable.The problems in Afghanistan are no doubt serious (most of the cases of collapse in footnote 1 were precipitated by war) and do require great care.But systems of global leadership have proved resilient in the past, and most importantly, they are also open to evolutionary change, that is, in the long-run, toward better global governance than old-fangled empire.