Overestimated benefits and underestimated costs: the case of the Paraguay—Paraná navigation study
1998; Taylor & Francis; Volume: 16; Issue: 4 Linguagem: Inglês
10.1080/14615517.1998.10600140
ISSN1471-5465
Autores Tópico(s)Logistics and Infrastructure Analysis
ResumoA major river navigation project, the Paraguay—Paraná Hidrovia, is being considered by the governments of Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay. The recently completed feasibility study for this project is seriously flawed and the errors systematically contribute to overestimating benefits and underestimating costs. The errors include overestimating the probability of a collapse in navigation, ignoring alternative forms of transportation, overestimating growth in regional shipments, omitting relevant construction costs, and perhaps most importantly, ignoring significant negative impacts to the environment. Correcting these errors, either individually or in concert, leads to the project not being economically feasible. Also provided is a method for including unspecified costs, such as those to the environment, in the analysis without further expensive and time-consuming studies.
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