HOW DO OIL PRICE SHOCKS AFFECT A SMALL NON-OIL PRODUCING ECONOMY? EVIDENCE FROM HONG KONG
2010; Wiley; Volume: 15; Issue: 2 Linguagem: Inglês
10.1111/j.1468-0106.2010.00501.x
ISSN1468-0106
AutoresJimmy Ran, Jan P. Voon, Guangzhong Li,
Tópico(s)Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies
ResumoPacific Economic ReviewVolume 15, Issue 2 p. 263-280 HOW DO OIL PRICE SHOCKS AFFECT A SMALL NON-OIL PRODUCING ECONOMY? EVIDENCE FROM HONG KONG Jimmy Ran, Corresponding Author Jimmy Ran Lingnan University, Central University of Finance and Economics Jimmy Ran, Department of Economics, Lingnan University, Tuen Mun, NT, Hong Kong. E-mail: [email protected]. We wish to thank Professor Clive W. J. Granger for his helpful comments as well as valuable suggestions regarding the application of the modified Diebold-Mariano test in our out-of-sample analysis. We also thank Ms Amy Li and Mr Andy Xiang for their assistance in collecting data, seeking relevant literature, and running an enormous number of regressions. We appreciate the helpful comments from two anonymous referees. A university research grant (funding code RES-008/200) is gratefully acknowledged. Search for more papers by this authorJan P. Voon, Jan P. Voon Lingnan UniversitySearch for more papers by this authorGuangzhong Li, Guangzhong Li Baruch College-CunySearch for more papers by this author Jimmy Ran, Corresponding Author Jimmy Ran Lingnan University, Central University of Finance and Economics Jimmy Ran, Department of Economics, Lingnan University, Tuen Mun, NT, Hong Kong. E-mail: [email protected]. We wish to thank Professor Clive W. J. Granger for his helpful comments as well as valuable suggestions regarding the application of the modified Diebold-Mariano test in our out-of-sample analysis. We also thank Ms Amy Li and Mr Andy Xiang for their assistance in collecting data, seeking relevant literature, and running an enormous number of regressions. We appreciate the helpful comments from two anonymous referees. A university research grant (funding code RES-008/200) is gratefully acknowledged. Search for more papers by this authorJan P. Voon, Jan P. Voon Lingnan UniversitySearch for more papers by this authorGuangzhong Li, Guangzhong Li Baruch College-CunySearch for more papers by this author First published: 20 April 2010 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0106.2010.00501.xCitations: 7Read the full textAboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditWechat Abstract We find no evidence from either in-sample or out-of-sample analyses that an oil price shock would necessarily affect a small non-oil producing economy such as Hong Kong. In our in-sample recursive vector autoregressive investigations, oil price does not Granger cause the key macroeconomic indicators. The forecast errors from our out-of-sample examination using a vector error correction model with oil shocks, which represents an extension to previous studies, were found to be statistically the same as those from the vector error correction model without these shocks. The analysis leads us to dispel the conventional wisdom that a small non-oil producing economy is more vulnerable to oil shocks than a larger oil-producing economy such as the USA. Citing Literature Volume15, Issue2May 2010Pages 263-280 RelatedInformation
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