Portal de Periódicos da CAPES

Solving Transnistria: Any Optimists Left?

2008; Procon Ltd.; Volume: 07; Issue: 1 Linguagem: Inglês

10.11610/connections.07.1.04

1812-2973

Cristian Urse,

Healthcare, Law, Governance, and Management Studies

Since 1992, there has been an ongoing debate regarding the situation in Transnistria, the breakaway republic on the border between Moldova and Ukraine.After the conclusion of the agreement that ended the armed conflict, the Moldovan government in Chişinău and the Transnistrian authorities in Tiraspol made efforts to find a political solution, under the supervision of a negotiation mechanism that included, until the end of 2005, Russia, Ukraine, and the OSCE.Russia's 2003 plan to that end was rejected by the Moldovan leadership.This triggered a set of political and economic punishments from Moscow.The political changes of 2005 have given a new impetus to the negotiations on the resolution of the Transnistrian conflict.The changes in Georgia and Ukraine and the resuscitation of GUAM have significantly influenced the premises for a settlement, while the United States and the European Union have become observers in the negotiations format.At the end of 2007, however, the prospects of solving the Transnistria issue are no longer that promising.The present negotiating mechanism continues to lose relevance.Meanwhile, developments in Kosovo, relevant for the case of Transnistria, are taking international affairs down a path where the frozen conflicts of the former USSR are losing importance as time goes by.This article argues that the decisions of the actors involved have negatively affected the negotiating mechanism.During 2005-06, the parties took unilateral steps that they perceived as likely to improve their position in the future.Meanwhile, the heated debate on Kosovo and the tangled political evolution of Ukraine in the last two years have seemed to lead the conflict in Transnistria to a dead-end, at least in the short and medium term.