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Assessing the Abu Sayyaf Group's Strategic and Learning Capacities

2013; Taylor & Francis; Volume: 37; Issue: 3 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1080/1057610x.2014.872021

1521-0731

Luke M. Gerdes, Kristine Ringler, Barbara Autin,

Politics and Conflicts in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Middle East

AbstractIt remains unclear whether the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) is a well-structured terror organization that poses a strategic threat, or a loosely organized collection of bandits that poses limited risk. Efforts to assess the nature of the organization are complicated by flaws in existing datasets on Violent Non-State Actors (VNSAs). ASG's role in kidnappings serves as a test-case to estimate incongruities among four major datasets on VNSAs. Original data collected at the agent level provides an additional point of comparison and also serves to test the efficacy of ASG's knowledge-dissemination structures, which are key in determining VNSAs' strategic capacities. NotesBrainy Quote. Available at http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/b/benjaminfr383997.html (accessed 23 January 2014). This article uses the term "violent non-state actor" in broad accordance with the characterization offered by Williams, who describes VNSAs as organizations that use violence or its threat to challenge state sovereignty. Examples of VNSAs include jihadist terror groups, sophisticated narco-traffickers, militias, and well-organized youth gangs. Phil Williams, "Violent Non-State Actors and National and International Security," International Relations and Security Network, ETH Zurich, 2008.Zachary Abuza, Balik-Terrorism: The Return of the Abu Sayyaf (Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, 2005); Rommel C. Banlaoi, "The Abu Sayyaf Group: From Mere Banditry to Genuine Terrorism," Southeast Asian Affairs 33 (2006), pp. 247–262; Zack Fellman, "Abu Sayyaf Group," AQAM Futures Project Case Studies Series: Center for Strategic and International Studies, November 2011; McKenzie O'Brien, "Fluctuations Between Crime and Terror: The Case of Abu Sayyaf's Kidnapping Activities," Terrorism and Political Violence 24(2) (2012), pp. 320–336.Angel Rabasa et al., Beyond al-Qaeda: Part 2: The Outer Rings of the Terrorist Universe (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2006); Justine A. Rosenthal, "For-Profit Terrorism: The Rise of Armed Entrepreneurs," Studies in Conflict and Terrorism 31(6) (June 2008), pp. 481–498; Eduardo F. Ugarte and Mark Macdonald Turner, "What is the 'Abu Sayyaf'? How Labels Shape Reality," The Pacific Review 24(4) (September 2011), pp. 397–420.Robert H. Reid, "Government Says Abu Sayyaf Links Extend through Afghanistan to Middle East," Associated Press Worldstream, 9 April 1995.Steve Coll, Ghost Wars: The Secret History of the CIA, Afghanistan, and bin Laden, From the Soviet Invasion to September 10, 2001 (New York: Penguin, 2004).Terry Mcdermott, "The Mastermind; Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and the Making of 9/11," The New Yorker, 13 September 2010.For example, the International Crisis Group alleges that Abdullah Sungkar and Abu Bakar Ba'asyir, the first two emirs of Jemaah Islamiyah, had known Sayyaf since 1988. "Recycling Militants in Indonesia: Darul Islam and the Australian Embassy Bombing," ICG Asia Report No. 92, 22 February 2005.U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation, "Most Wanted Terrorists: Raddulan Sahiron," 29 September 2010. "2 Abu Sayyaf Leaders Now on FBI Wanted List; $1 to $5 M Rewards Up," Philippines Today, 27 November 2012.U.S. Department of Justice, "Founding Member of Abu Sayyaf Group Pleads Guilty to 1995 Hostage Taking Involving U.S. and Philippine Citizens," DOJ Press Release, 28 July 2010."Former Muslim Extremist Leader Killed in Southern Philippines," Associated Press Worldstream, 15 January 1999."Philippines: Government Rejects Swap for Abu Sayyaf Hostage," BBC Monitoring South Asia–Political, 24 October 2001.U.S. Department of the Treasury, "Treasury Designates Seven Member of the Rajah Solaiman Movement," Press Release, 16 June 2008; USA v. Janjalni, et al (Defendants), U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia (Criminal No.: 02-068 (JDB)), Indictment, 11 June 2001."17 Abu Sayyaf Inmates Killed in Prison Riot in Philippines," Xinhua General News Service, 15 March 2005; "American Missionary Testifies against Kidnap Suspects in Manila," Xinhua General News Service, 29 July 2004.See, for example, the 1993 kidnapping of shipping magnate Ricardo Tong, the 2002 kidnapping of sales representatives in Sulu, the 2008 kidnapping of businesswoman Rosalie Lao, and the 2011 kidnapping of businessman Nelson Lim. "Moslem Kidnappers Free Ethnic Chinese Shipyard Owner," AFP, 18 January 1994; "Former Top Moslem Rebel Acquitted on Kidnapping Charges in Philippines," AFP, 19 May 1997; "One of Four Kidnap Victims Escape from Moslem Extremists," AFP, 16 March 1995; "Muslim Extremists Take Four Hostage in Southern Philippines," AP, 27 February 1995; Felipe F. Falvosa II and Rey Luis Banagudos, "Six Sales Agents Abducted by Abu Sayyaf," Businesworld, 22 August 2002; Al Jacinto, "Police Rescue Trader Held Captive by Abu Sayyaf for P2 Million Ransom in Sulu," Manila Times, 12 April 2008; Darwin T. Wee, "Business Airs Concern Over Rising Criminality," Businessworld, 4 February 2008; "Gunmen Kidnap Chinese-Filipino Businessman in S. Philippines," Xinhua General News Service, 29 April 2011.See, for example, the 2000 kidnapping of German journalist Andreas Lorenz, the 2000 kidnapping of a French television crew, and the 2008 kidnapping of journalist Ces Drillion and her TV news crew. Tony Paterson, "Rebels Re-Kidnap German Journalist," The Guardian, 3 July 2000; Aaron Favila, "Armed Men Seize German Journalist Covering Philippine Hostage Crisis," AP, 2 July 2000; "Philippine Authorities Arrest Three Ranking Abu Sayyaf Leaders," BBC Monitoring Asia Pacific-Political, 9 July 2001.See, for example, the 1992 kidnapping of Fr. Gerald Fraszcack, the 1993 kidnapping of Sisters Julia Forester and Fatima Uribaren, the 1994 kidnapping of Fr. Clarence Bertelsman, the 1998 kidnapping of Fr. Luciano Benedetti, the 2000 kidnapping of the Jesus Miracle Crusade (who were foolish enough to walk into an ASG camp to pray with a group of previously abducted hostages), and the 2008 botched-kidnapping-turned-murder of Fr. Jesus Reynaldo. "Philippines: Military Offensive on Muslim Faction," Inter Press Service, 9 June 1994; William Branigin, "Muslim Radical in Philippines Take Hostages, Kill 15 as Troops Pursue," Washington Post, 9 June 1994; Friena P. Guerrero, "Robot Capture Prevented New Abduction Attempts, Says AFP," Businessworld, 9 December 2003; "American Priest Kidnapped, Rescued in Southern Philippines," AFP, 31 July 1994; "Philippine Military Hunts Suspected Professional Kidnappers Who Abducted Italian Priest," AP, 18 October 2001; "Philippines: Manila Rejects Abu Sayyaf Rebels' Call for New Negotiations," BBC Monitoring Asia Pacific–Political, 4 July 2000; Romer S. Sarmiento and Darwin T. Wee, "Murdered Priest Laid to Rest; Suspect Freed on Weak Case," Businessworld, 24 January 2008.Zachary Abuza, "The Philippines Chips Away at the Abu Sayyaf Group's Strength," CTC Sentinel, 3 April 2010.United States of America (Appelle), v. Ramzi Ahmed Yousef et al (Defendants-Appellants), U.S. Court of Appeals, Second Circuit (98-1041L, 98-1197, 98-1355, 99-1544, 99-1554), see "Background." David Kocieniewiski, "Center Fuel Tank Seen as Jets' Deadly Weak Spot," New York Times, 30 August 1996; Dale L. Watson, "Prepared Statement by Dale L. Watson, Section Chief, International Terrorism Operations Section, Federal Bureau of Investigation before the Senate Judiciary Committee, Subcommittee Terrorism, Technology, and Government Information," Federal News Service, 24 February 1998. Verbatim Transcript for Combatant Status Review Tribunal Hearing for ISN 10024 (Khalid Sheikh Mohammed), 10 March 2007."Rebels Behead Philippine Troops," BBC News, 11 July 2007.International Crisis Group, "Southern Philippines Backgrounder: Terrorism and the Peace Process," ICG Asia Report No. 80, 13 July 2004; Maria Ressam, "September 11: The Asian Blueprint," CNN.com, 11 March 2002; Dan Murphy, "Man 'Most Wanted' in Indonesia," Christian Science Monitor, 30 April 2002.U.S. Department of the Treasury, "Abu Sayyaf Senior Leaders Designated," DOT Press Release, 30 November 2005.Ibid.Rommel Banlaoi, "Remembering 2004 Super Ferry 14 Bombing: World's Deadliest Maritime Terrorist Attack, So Far," Wordpress, 19 February 2011.U.S. Department of the Treasury, "Treasury Designates Seven Member of the Rajah Solaiman Movement," DOT Press Release, 16 June 2008."Solon, 5 Others Charged in Slay Try on Sulu Gov," Philippine Daily Inquirer, 11 June 2009.Michael Kenney, From Pablo to Osama: Trafficking and Terrorist Networks, Government Bureaucracies, and Competitive Advantage (University Park: Pennsylvania State University Press, 2007), p. 11.Eduardo F. Ugarte, "The 'Lost Command' of Julhani Jillang: An Alliance from the Southwestern Philippines," Studies in Conflict and Terrorism 32, p306.Ibid, p. 307.Ibid.Ibid.Ehud Sprinzak, "Rational Fanatics," Foreign Policy no. 122 (Sep/Oct 2000), p. 69.Solaiman M. Santos, Jr. and Paz Verdades M. Santos, "Primed and Purposeful: Armed Groups and Human Security Efforts in the Philippines," Small Arms Survey, 2010.Cathy C. Yamsuan, "Senate Told of Rampant Dynamite Fishing in PH," Philippine Inquirer, 22 October 2002; Glen Martin, "The Depth of Destruction: Dynamite Fishing Ravages Philippines' Precious Coral Reefs," SF Gate, 30 May 2002.Author interview with an American government employee, 21 September 2012. (Hereafter "Interview").Events cannot be reconciled by name or identification number, since each dataset follows its own unique naming convention. Therefore, the details of each event—its location, the date of attack, the names of any known victims—served to match events across datasets.It is possible to glean small amounts of information on individuals' participation in events by studying the narrative incident reports that accompany entries. However, none of the databases attempt to provide comprehensive lists of the participants involved in events.Santos and Santos, "Primed and Purposeful," pp. 393–400.Hans Kestler, Andre Muller, et al., "VennMaster: Area-Proportional Euler Diagrams for Functional GO Analysis of Microarrays," BMC Bioinformatics 9(1) (2008).For typical examples of network coding procedure as applied to the study of extremism, see: Luke M. Gerdes, "Codebook for Network Data on Individuals Involved with Terrorism and Counterterrorism," Carnegie Mellon University, School of Computer Science, Institute for Software Research, Technical Report CMU-ISR-08-128, 2008. "Individual Attributes," John Jay and ARTIS Transnational Terrorism Database, 2009.Generated with ORA. Kathleen M. Carley, Jeff Reminga, Jon Storrick, and Dave Columbus, "ORA User's Guide 2012," Carnegie Mellon University, School of Computer Science, Institute for Software Research, Technical Report CMU-ISR-12-105, 2012.Alessandro Orsini, "Poverty, Ideology and Terrorism: The STAM Bond," Studies in Conflict and Terrorism 35 (2012), pp. 665–692.John Horgan, Walking Away from Terrorism: Accounts of Disengagement from Radical and Extremist Movements, (New York: Routledge, 2009), pp. 9–10; Javier Jordan, "Jihadist Radicalization Processes in Spain: Sociopolitical Analysis at Three Levels," Revista de Psicologia Social 24(2) (May 2009), pp. 197–216; Paul R. Baines, Nicholas J. O'Shaughnessy, Kevin Moloney, et al., "The Dark Side of Political Marketing: Islamist Propaganda, Reversal Theory, and British Muslims," European Journal of Marketing 44(3–4) (2010), pp. 478–495.Forest provides an overview of several prominent manuals in an appendix to The Making of a Terrorist: Recruitment, Training, and Root Causes, Volume II: Training (Westport, CT: Praeger, 2006), pp. 310–333.Eben Kaplan, "Terrorists and the Internet," Council on Foreign Relations, 8 January 2009.Gabriel Weimann, "Virtual Training Camps: Terrorists' Use of the Internet," in James J. F. Forest, ed., Teaching Terrors: Strategic and Tactical Learning in the Terrorist World, (Oxford, UK: Rowman & Littlefield, 2007), pp. 110–132; Gabriel Weimann, Terror on the Internet (Washington, DC: U.S. Institute of Peace, 2006). See also, Bruce Hoffman, Inside Terrorism (New York: Columbia University Press, 1998), p. 203. Anne Stenersen offers an important criticism of the "virtual training camp" argument by noting that terror groups do not manage online resources from the top down; instead sympathizers post content of their own volition. "The Internet: A Virtual Training Camp?" Terrorism and Political Violence 20(2) (2008), pp. 215–233.Petter Nesser, "How Did Europe's Global Jihadists Obtain Training for their Militant Causes?" Terrorism and Political Violence 20(2) (2008), pp. 234–256.Kenney, From Pablo to Osama, p. 46.Interview.Interview.Kenney, From Pablo to Osama; Forest, The Making of a Terrorist.Weimann, "Virtual Training Camps," 2006. Evan F. Kohlmann, "The Real Online Terrorist Threat," Foreign Affairs 85(5) (September/October 2006), pp. 115–124; Bruce Hoffman, "Rethinking Terrorism and Counterterrorism Since 9/11," Studies in Conflict and Terrorism 25 (2002), p. 307.James J. F. Forest, "Knowledge Transfer and Shared Learning among Armed Groups," in Jeffrey H. Norwitz, ed., Armed Groups: Studies in National Security, Counterterrorism, and Counterinsurgency (Newport, RI: U.S. Naval War College, 2008), pp. 269–289; Horacio R. Trujillo and Brain A. Jackson, "Organizational Learning and Terrorist Groups," in James J. F. Forrest, ed., Teaching Terror: Strategic and Tactical Learning in the Terrorist World (Oxford, UK: Rowman & Littlefield, 2007), pp. 52–68.Forest describes organization-to-organization transfers of knowledge in his discussion of FARC's decision to hire PIRA bombmakers as instructors. Forest, "Knowledge Transfer and Shared Learning among Armed Groups," p. 272.Hizballah has occasionally been willing to work with Sunni organizations in the past and even trained a handful of Al Qaeda operatives in bombmaking in the early 1990s. See: USA v. Usama bin Laden, et al (Defendants), Day 2 of Trial Testimony, U.S. District Court Southern District of New York (S(7) 98 Cr. 1023), 2001; and National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States (9/11 Commission), Final Report of the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States (New York: W.W. Norton and Company, 2004), p. 61. (Hereafter "9/11 Commission Report").Forest, The Making of a Terrorist, 2007. James J. F. Forest, "Terrorist Training Centers Around the World: A Brief Review," in James J. F. Forest, ed., The Making of a Terrorists: Recruitment, Training, and Root Causes, Volume II: Training (Westport, CT: Praeger, 2006), pp. 296–310.9/11 Commission Report, pp. 235–236. Verbatim Transcript of Open Session Combat Status Review Tribunal Hearing for ISN 10014 (Walid bin Attash), 12 March 2007.Metropolitan Police Department, "Operation Overamp: R v Hamid and others," Directorate of Public Affairs, date unknown; Duncan Gardham, "July 21 Bombers 'Trained at Cumbria Camp,'" The Telegraph (London), 16 October 2007; "Wife 'Knew about 21/7 Bomb Plot,'" BBC News, 27 February 2008.A number of scholars argue that Al Qaeda offers an example of this type of adaptation. See, for example: Bill Branif and Assaf Moghadam, "Toward Global Jihadism: Al-Qaeda's Strategic, Ideological, and Structural Adaptations since 9/11," Perspectives on Terrorism 5(2) (2011); Norman Cigar, "Al-Qaida, the Tribes, and the Government: Lessons and Prospects for Iraq's Unstable Triangle," Marine Corps University, Middle East Studies Occasional Papers, Number Two, September 2011, p. vii; Bruce Hoffman, "The Changing Face of Al Qaeda and the Global War on Terrorism," Studies in Conflict and Terrorism 27 (2004), p. 551; Reid Sawyer and Michael Foster, "The Resurgent and Persistent Threat of al Qaeda," Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 12 June 2008.Truls Hallberg Tønnessen, "Training on a Battlefield: Iraq as Training Ground for Global Jihadis," Terrorism and Political Violence 20(4) (2008), pp. 543–562.Office of the President of the United States, "National Strategy for Counterterrorism," June 2011, p. 9; Secretary of State of the Home Department, "CONTEST: The United Kingdom's Strategy for Countering Terrorism," July 2011, p. 26; The General Assembly, "Resolution: The United Nations Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy," 8 September 2006.Joshua E. Keating, "What Do You Learn at Terrorist Training Camp?" Foreign Policy Explainer, 10 May 2010; Omar Nasiri, Inside the Jihad: My Life With Al Qaeda, A Spy's Story (New York: Basic Books, 2006), pp. 134–172.Ibid.Tønnessen, "Training on a Battlefield."Kenney, From Pablo to Osama, 2009, pp. 13–14.Brian A. Jackson, "Organizational Learning and Terrorist Groups," RAND Working Paper, February 2004, p. 10.Evidence from the related field of proliferation studies also supports this assessment. Sonia Ben Ouagrham-Gormley, "Barriers to Bioweapons: Intangible Obstacles to Proliferation," International Secuirty 36(4) (2012), pp. 80–114; Dennis M. Gormley, Missile Contagion: Cruise Missile Proliferation and the Threat to International Security (Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 2008), pp. 85–89; Donald MacKenzie and Graham Spinardi, "Tacit Knowledge, Weapons Design, and the Uninvention of Nuclear Weapons," American Journal of Sociology 101(1) (July 1995), pp. 44–99.Michael Polanyi, The Tacit Dimension (New York: Doubleday, 1966), p. 5.Because events with only one known participant will always produce a membership gap of zero, such events were excluded from consideration in order to avoid biasing the data. Each of the graphs describes only those events with two or more known participants.This study's approach to re-wiring two-mode networks was based on Krackhardt's approach to permuting one-mode networks to test correlations between networks that share a common node-set. David Krackhardt, "QAP Partialling as a Test of Spuriousness," Social Networks 9 (1988), pp. 171–186; D. D. Dekker, D. Krackhardt, and T. A. B. Snijder, "Sensitivity of MRQAP Tests to Colinearity and Autocorrelation Conditions," Psychometrika 72 (2007), pp. 563–581.Tests were conducted using R. R Core Team (2012). R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing (Vienna, Austria: R Foundation for Statistical Computing). ISBN 3-900051-07-0.J. H. McDonald, Handbook of Biological Statistics, 2nd Edition (Baltimore, MD: Sparky House Publishing, 2009).Ibid.Ugarte and Turner, "What is the 'Abu Sayyaf'?"Richard A. Clarke et al., Defeating the Jihadists: A Blueprint for Action, A Century Foundation Task Report (New York: Century Foundation Press, 2004), p. 25; International Crisis Group, "Indonesia Backgrounder: How the Jemaah Islamiyah Terrorist Network Operates," 11 December 2002.