Portal de Periódicos da CAPES

Tracking Down Russia's Lanchester 1

2004; Routledge; Volume: 17; Issue: 2 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1080/13518040490450538

1556-3006

Jacob W. Kipp,

Military Strategy and Technology

Abstract This paper began as a Cold War detective story and became a personal obsession of its author over the course of the past decade. The author became aware of its subject, M. Osipov, when he was working on a monograph on Foresight and Forecasting in the Russian and Soviet Military. Mentions of Osipov's work by Soviet scholars drew attention to the original publication of his article in Voenniy sbornik [Military Digest] in 1915. Allen Rehm and Robert Helmhold, who translated the article into English, addressed Osipov's contribution to operations research and noted the parallels between his work and that of F. W. Lanchester. This article also addresses Osipov's unique contribution to operations research and proposes a solution to the unanswered question of the Osipov's identity. Notes 1 The views expressed in this article are those of the author and should not be construed to represent the views of the Department of the Army or the Department of Defense. 2 Jacob W. Kipp, Foresight and Forecasting: The Russian and Soviet Military Experience. College Station, Texas: Center for Strategic Technology Stratech Studies 1988. 3 Sovetskaia voennaia entsiklopediia (Moscow: Voenizdat, 1977–1980), Vol. V, p. 187. 4 M. Osipov, "The Influence of the Numerical Strength of Engaged Forces on their Casualties," 1915, translated and annotated by R. L. Helmbold and A. S. Rehm and republished in: Research Paper CAA-Rp-91–2 by the Army Concepts Analysis Agency, Bethesda, MD 1991. 5 On Tolstoy's laws of war and his debt to Prince S. Urusov see: Jacob W. Kipp, "Soldiers and Civilians Confronting Future War: Lev Tolstoy, Jan Bloch and Their Russian Military Critics," in: Stephen D. Chiabotti, ed., Tooling for War: Military Transformation in the Industrial Age. (Chicago, Imprint Publications, 1996), pp. 189–230. See also: S. Urusov, Obzor kampanii 1812–1813. Voenno-matematicheskie zadachi i o zheleznykh dorogakh.(Moscow: Tipografiia V. A. Gor'e, 1868); S. S. Urusov, Differentsial'nye raznosinye uravneneiia. (Moscow, 1863); S. S. Urusov, O reshenii problemy konya (v shakhmatakh). (Moscow: 1865); and S. S. Urusov, Ob integriiushchem mnozhitele rasnostnykh i differetial'nykh uravnenii. (Moscow, 1865). 6 F. W. Lanchester, "Aircraft in Warfare," Engineering, Vol. 98 (1914), pp. 422–423, 252–254. Reprinted in: J. R. Newman, ed., The World of Mathematics, Vol. 4, (1956), pp. 2138–2157. 7 J. V. Chase, "A Mathematical Investigation of the Effect of Superiority in Combats upon the Sea," (1902), reprinted in B. A. Fiske, The Navy as a Fighting Machine. Wayne P. Hughes, Jr., ed. with introduction, notes, and appendices of unpublished works. Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press 1988. 8 M. Osipov, "Vliianie chislennosti srazhaiushchikhsia storon na ikh poteri," Voenniy sbornik, (June 1915), No. 6, pp. 59–74 and (July 1915) No. 7, pp. 25–36, (August 1915), No. 8, pp. 31–40, (September 1915), and No. 9, pp. 25–37; and M. Osipov, "Dopolnenie k stat'e 'Vliianie chislennosti srazhaiushchikhsia storon na ikh poteri," Voenniy sbornik, No. 10 (October 1915), pp. 93–96. 9 C. P. Snow, Science and Government. Cambridge: Harvard University Press 1961. This study of the relationships between scientists and the Churchill government during World War II builds upon Snow's classic study of communications between scientists and humanists. See: C. P. Snow, The Two Cultures and the Scientific Revolution. New York: Cambridge University Press 1959. Snow was both a physicist and a novelist and walked the corridors of powers during World War II. For a different look at the relationship between scientists and the military see: Solly Zuckerman, From Apes to Warlords. New York: Harper & Row, 1978. Zuckerman was a biologist who ended up doing operations research for Bomber Command. 10 Montgomery C. Meigs, Slide Rules and Submarines. Washington, DC: NDU Press 1990, p. xvii. 11 Brian McCue, U-Boats in the Bay of Biscay: An Essay in Operational Analysis. Washington, DC: NDU Press 1990, pp. 1–3. 12 Osipov, "Vliianie chislennosti srazhaiushchikhsia storon na ikh poteri," Voenniy sbornik, (September 1915), p. 37. 13 M. Osipov, "Dopolnenie k stat'e 'Vliianie chislennosti srazhaiushchikhsia storon na ikh poteri," Voenniy sbornik, No. 10 (October 1915), pp. 95–96. 14 Helmbold and Rehm, p. viii. 15 Ibid., p. ix. 16 "Frederick William Lanchester 1868–1946, http://www.lanchester.com/Lanc1.html. 17 Paul K. Davis, "Combat Modeling Issues," in: Technology for the United States Navy and Marine Corps, 200–2035: Becoming a 21st-Century Force, Modeling and Simulation Vol. 9 (1997), pp. 226–227. 18 Bradley A. Fiske, The Navy as a Fighting Machine. London: Hugh Rees, Ltd., 1916, p. 283. 19 M. Osipov, "Dopolnenie k stat'e 'Vliianie chislennosti srazhaiushchikhsia storon na ikh poteri," Voenniy sbornik, No. 10 (October 1915), p. 93. 20 Ibid., p. 96. 21 Ibid., pp. 95–96. 22 Ibid., p. 96. 23 P. N. Tkachenko et al., Matematicheskie modeli boevykh deistvii: Matematicheskie metody modelirovaniya boevykh deistvii pri pomoshchi elektronnykh vychislitel'nykh mashin. (Moscow: Sovetskoe Radio, 1969), pp. 18–20, 235–236. 24 N. N. Moiseev, "Matematik zadaet voprosy," Znanie, (1974), p. 27. Moiseev's positive treatment of Osipov's contribution was not unique. He also was instrumental in calling attention to A. A. Bogdanov's contribution to the development of systems theory in Russia. Bogdanov (Malinovsky) was a far more controversial figure. As a social democratic revolutionary he had been involved in a philosophical/ideological dispute with Lenin before the revolution and had championed the Proletkult movement after the revolution. Bogdanov had become a non-person under Stalin, remembered by medical researchers for his contribution to the development of blood transfusions. See: John Biggart, Georgii Glovelli, and Avraham Yassour, Alexander Bogdanov and the Origins of Systems Thinking in Russia. Aldershot, England: Ashgate 1998. 25 R. M. Yusupov and V. P. Ivanov, "Matematicheskoe modelirovanie v voennom dele," Voenno-istoricheskii zhurnal, No. 9 (September 1988), pp. 79–83. 26 Ibid., p. 81. 27 On the Urusov-Tolstoy relationship and Tolstoy's laws of war see Jacob W. Kipp, "Soldiers and Civilians Confronting Future War: Lev Tolstoy, Jan Bloch and Their Russian Military Critics," in: Stephen D. Chiabotti, ed., Tooling for War: Military Transformation in the Industrial Age. Chicago, Imprint Publications 1996, pp. 197–198, and S. Urusov, Obzor kampanii 1812–1813. Voenno-matematicheskie zadachi i o zheleznykh dorogakh. Moscow: Tipografiia V. A. Gor'e 1868; S. S. Urusov, Differentsial'nye raznosinye uravneneiia. Moscow 1863; S. S. Urusov, O reshenii problemy konya (v shakhmatakh). Moscow 1865; and S. S. Urusov, Ob integriiushchem mnozhitele rasnostnykh i differetial'nykh uravnenii. Moscow 1865. 28 I. S. Bliokh, Budushchaia voina v tekhnicheskom, ekonomicheskom i politicheskom otnosheniyakh. Six volumes. St. Petersburg: Topografiia I A. Efrona 1898. On Bloch/Bliokh's biography see Ryszard Kolodziejczyk, Jan Bloch (1836–1902) Warsaw: Panstwowy Institut Wydawniczy 1983; and Kipp, "Soldiers and Civilians Confronting Future War: Lev Tolstoy, Jan Bloch and Their Russian Military Critics," pp. 202–230. 29 V. D. Riabchuk, "Nauka, obrazovanie, reforma," Voennaia mysl', No. 2 (February 1994), pp. 39–41. 30 Biuro Mezhdunarodnoi Bibliografii, Imperatorskaia Akademiia Nauk, "Rossiiskaia bibliografiia po estestvoznaniiu i matematike sostavlennaia sostoiashchim pri Imperatorskoi Akademii Nauk. (St. Petersburg: Akademiia Nauk 1904–1918). 31 Osipov, Podpolkovnik, "Astronomicheskiia opredeleniia punktov po Eniseiu i po pochtovomu traktu Achinsk-Minusinsk v 1901 g.," Zapiski Voenno-Topograficheskogo Otdela Glavnago Shtaba, Vol. 60, No. 2 (1903), pp. 41–58; Osipov, "Astronomicheskiia opredeleniia punktov po reke Eniseiu i v Achinsko-Minuanskom Zolotnosnom raione Eniseiskoi Gubernii," Zapiski Voenno-Topograficheskogo Otdela Glavnago Shtaba, Vol. 61, No. 2 (1905), pp. 225–256; Osipov, "Astronomicheskiia opredeleniia v Zaisonskom uezde Semipalatinskoi oblast' v 1902 g.," Zapiski Voenno-Topograficheskogo Otdela Glavnago Shtaba, Vol. 62, No. 2 (1906), pp. 23–53; Osipov, Polkovnik "Vliianie refraktsii na geometricheskiia nivillerovki," Zapiski Voenno-Topograficheskogo Otdela Glavnago Shtaba, Vol. 63, No. 2 (1910), pp. 171–201; Osipov, polkovnik. "Izmerenie bazisa u g. Chity," Zapiski Voenno-Topograficheskogo Otdela Glavnago Shtaba, Vol. 68, No. 2 (1914), pp. 243–272; and Osipov, General', "Izmerenie bazisa bliz g. Chity," Zapiski Voenno-Topograficheskogo Otdela Glavnago Shtaba, Vol. 68, No. 2 (1913), pp. 273–286. 32 Russia, Armiia. Glavnoe Upravlenie General'nogo Shtaba, Voenno-Topograificheskii Otdel, "Topograficheskaia karta Aziatskoi chasti Rossiiskoi Imperii. St. Petersburg: Voennaia Tipografiia v zdanii Glavnago Shtaba 1907, 1912. 33 Osipov, "Astronomicheskiia opredeleniia punktov po Eniseiu i po pochtovomu traktu Achinsk-Minusinsk v 1901 g.," Zapiski Voenno-Topograficheskogo Otdela Glavnago Shtaba, Vol. 60, No. 2 (1903), pp. 45–48; and Osipov, "Astronomicheskiia opredeleniia punktov po reke Eniseiu i v Achinsko-Minuanskom Zolotnosnom raione Eniseiskoi Gubernii," Zapiski Voenno-Topograficheskogo Otdela Glavnago Shtaba, Vol. 61, No. 2 (1905), pp. 228–236. 34 Osipov, Podpokovnik, "Astronomicheskiia opredeleniia punktov po reke Eniseiu i v Achinsko-Minuanskom Zolotnosnom raione Eniseiskoi Gubernii v 1902 godu." St. Petersburg: Voennaia Tipografiia v zdanii Glavnago Shtaba, 1905; and M. P. Osipov "Vliianie refraktsii na geometricheskiia nivillerovki." St. Petersburg: Voennaia Tipografiia v zdanii Glavnago Shtaba 1909. Since then I have received through intr-library loan three additional Zapiski articles from the Russian State Library: Osipov, "Astronomicheskiia opredeleniia v Zaisonskom uezde Semipalatinskoi oblast' v 1902 g.," Zapiski Voenno-Topograficheskogo Otdela Glavnago Shtaba, Vol. 62, No. 2 (1906), pp. 23–53; Osipov, Podpolkovnik, "Astronomicheskiia opredeleniia punktov po Eniseiu i po pochtovomu traktu Achinsk-Minusinsk v 1901 g.," Zapiski Voenno-Topograficheskogo Otdela Glavnago Shtaba, Vol. 60, No. 2 (1903), pp. 41–58; and Podpolkovnik General'nago Shtaba Osipov, Osipov, "Astronomicheskiia opredeleniia punktov po reke Eniseiu i v Achinsko-Minuanskom Zolotnosnom raione Eniseiskoi Gubernii," Zapiski Voenno-Topograficheskogo Otdela Glavnago Shtaba, Vol. 61, No. 2 (1905), pp. 228–236. 35 Osipov, "Astronomicheskiia opredeleniia punktov po reke Eniseiu i v Achinsko-Minuanskom Zolotnosnom raione Eniseiskoi Gubernii," pp.1–2, 5–8. 36 M. P. Osipov, "Vliianie refraktsii na geometricheskiia nivillerovki," (St. Petersburg: Voennaia Tipografiia v zdanii Glavnago Shtaba, 1905), pp. 1–3. 37 Colonel Mikhail Pavlovich Osipov, "Astroliabiia planisfera ili Persidsko-Arabskaia astroliabiia," Ottisk iz protokolov i soobshchenii Turkestanskago kruzhka liubitelei arkheologii za 1909–1910. Tashkent: Topografiia pri Kantselarii Turkeststanskago G. Gubernatora 1910. 38 I. Slavskiy and I. Zykov, "Protokol' No. 3," Protokoly zasedanii i soobshcheniia chlenov Turkestanskago kruzhka liubitelei arkheologii (God chetyrnadtsatyi) (1 yanvarya 1909g. – 1 yanvarya 1910g.). Tashkent: Topografiia pri Kantselarii Turkeststanskago G. Gubernatora 1910, pp. 111–112. 39 M. Osipov, "Dopolnenie k stat'e 'Vliianie chislennosti srazhaiushchikhsia storon na ikh poteri," Voenniy sbornik, No. 10 (October 1915), p. 93.