The Tech Buzz Game [stock market prediction
2005; IEEE Computer Society; Volume: 38; Issue: 7 Linguagem: Inglês
10.1109/mc.2005.243
ISSN1558-0814
AutoresB. Mangold, Michael Dooley, Gary William Flake, Helmut Hoffman, Tejaswi Kasturi, D.M. Pennock, Rael Dornfest,
Tópico(s)Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
ResumoPrediction markets, also known as information or decision markets, are designed to forecast future events or trends. Internet-based prediction markets can easily aggregate the insights of an unlimited number of potentially knowledgeable people asynchronously. The Tech Buzz Game - a joint venture between Yahoo! Research Labs and O'Reilly Media - is a fantasy prediction market launched in March 2005 at the O'Reilly Emerging Technology (ETech) Conference. The game consists of multiple sub-markets that pit a handful of rival technologies, each represented by a stock, against one another. The game's object is to anticipate future search buzz and buy and sell stocks accordingly. Thus, a player who believes BitTorrent stock is undervalued might buy shares, while a player who thinks BitTorrent is overpriced might sell the stock or instead purchase shares in a competing peer-to-peer technology. The Tech Buzz Game serves two key research-oriented goals. One is to evaluate the power of prediction markets to forecast high-tech trends. The other goal of the Tech Buzz Game is to field test the dynamic pari-mutuel market, a Yahoo! Research Labs trading mechanism designed to price and allocate shares.
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