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Models and model uncertainty in the context of risk analysis

2003; Elsevier BV; Volume: 79; Issue: 3 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1016/s0951-8320(02)00239-9

1879-0836

Thomas R. Nilsen, Terje Aven,

Risk Perception and Management

This paper addresses the concept of model uncertainty within the context of risk analysis. Though model uncertainty is a topic widely discussed in the risk analysis literature, no consensus seems to exist on its meaning, how it should be measured, or its impact on the application of analysis results in decision processes. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to clarification. The first parts of the paper look into the contents of the two terms 'model' and 'uncertainty'. On this platform it is discussed how focus on model uncertainty merely leads to muddling up the message of the analysis, if risk is interpreted as a true, inherent property of the system, to be estimated in the risk analysis. An alternative approach is to see the models as means for expressing uncertainty regarding the system performance. In this case, it is argued, the term 'model uncertainty' loses its meaning.