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Modeling effects-based operations in support of war games

2001; SPIE; Volume: 4367; Linguagem: Inglês

10.1117/12.440041

1996-756X

Lee W. Wagenhals, Alexander H. Levis,

Simulation Techniques and Applications

The problem of planning, executing and assessing Effects-Based Operations (EBO) requires the synthesis of a number of modeling approaches. A prototype system to assist in developing Courses of Action (COAs) for Effects-Based operations and evaluating them in terms of the probability of achieving the desired effects has been developed and is called CAESAR II/EB. Two of the key components of the system are: (a) an Influence net modeler such as the Campaign Assessment Tool (CAT) developed at AFRL/IF, and (b) an executable model generator and simulator based on the software implementation of Colored Petri nets called Design/CPN. The executable model, names COA/EB, is used to simulate the COAs and collect data on Measures of Performance (MOPs). One particular output is the probability of achieving the desired affect as a function of time. Probability profiles can be compared to determine the more effective COAs. This version of CAESAR II/EB was used successfully in August 2000 at the Naval War College in the war game Global 2000. Experiences with building and using the models both prior to the war game and during the war game to answer tropical questions as they arose are described.