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Combining Surge and Wind Risk from Hurricanes Using a Copula Model: An Example from Galveston, Texas

2014; Routledge; Volume: 67; Issue: 1 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1080/00330124.2013.866437

1467-9272

Jill C. Trepanier, Hal F. Needham, James B. Elsner, Thomas H. Jagger,

Ocean Waves and Remote Sensing

AbstractConsideration of climate-related impacts on coasts is important to ensure readiness for disaster response. Local risk of storm surge and strong winds from hurricanes affecting Galveston, Texas, is quantified using a bivariate copula model fit to observed data. The model uses a two-dimensional Archimedean copula. Parametric uncertainty (5th and 95th percentiles) is quantified using a Monte Carlo procedure. The annual probability of a hurricane producing winds of at least 50 ms−1 and a surge of at least 4 m is 1.7 percent with a 95 percent confidence interval of (1.33, 1.78) percent. The methodology can be extended to include inland flooding and can be applied elsewhere with available information.考量与气候相关的冲击对海岸的影响, 对于确保灾害回应准备就绪而言至关重要。我们将运用适合所测得数据的二变量关联结构模型, 量化影响德州加尔维斯敦的龙捲风所带来的风暴潮与极端风的在地风险。该模型使用二维阿基米德关联结构函数, 并使用蒙地卡罗步骤, 量化参数的不确定性 (第五和第九十五个百分位数)。引发至少为 50ms-1 级风和四公尺长浪的龙捲风年发生率是百分之一点七, 并有着 (1.33, 1.78) 比率的百分之九十五信赖区间。该研究方法可以扩展并纳入内陆洪泛, 亦可被运用至具有可运用信息的其他地区。Es importante tomar en consideración los impactos relacionados con el clima en las costas para asegurar una pronta respuesta en caso de desastre. El riesgo local por marejadas de tormenta y por vientos fuertes asociados con los huracanes que afectan a Galveston, Texas, se cuantifica utilizando un modelo cópula bivariado ajustado a los datos observados. El modelo utiliza una cópula arquimediana bidimensional. La incertidumbre paramétrica (percentiles 5° y 95°) se cuantifica por medio de un procedimiento de Monte Carlo. La probabilidad anual de que ocurra un huracán que produzca vientos de por lo menos 50 ms−1, y una marejada de por lo menos 4 m, es de 1.7 por ciento al 95 por ciento de confianza en intervalo (1.33, 1.78 por ciento). La metodología puede extenderse para incluir la inundación tierra adentro y puede aplicarse en otras partes con la información que se tenga a mano.Key Words:: copulaextreme windshurricanesriskstorm surge.关键词:: 关联结构极端风况龙捲风风险风暴潮。Palabras clave:: cópulavientos extremoshuracanesriesgomarejada de tormenta Additional informationNotes on contributorsJill C. TrepanierJILL C. TREPANIER is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Geography and Anthropology at Louisiana State University, 227 Howe-Russell Geoscience Complex, Baton Rouge, LA 70817. E-mail: jtrepa3@lsu.edu. Her research interests include the statistical estimation of extreme hurricane risk in the North Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico.Hal F. NeedhamHAL F. NEEDHAM is a PhD candidate in the Department of Geography and Anthropology at Louisiana State University, 227 Howe-Russell Geoscience Complex, Baton Rouge, LA 70817. E-mail: hneedh1@lsu.edu. His research interests include coastal flooding from storm surges associated with tropical cyclones along the Gulf of Mexico.James B. ElsnerJAMES B. ELSNER is a Full Professor in the Department of Geography at Florida State University, Room 323, Bellamy Building, 113 Collegiate Loop, PO Box 3062190, Tallahassee, FL 32306. E-mail: jelsner@fsu.edu. His research interests include hurricane climatology, spatial statistics, applications of extreme value theory, Bayesian modeling, and scaling laws in the atmosphere.Thomas H. JaggerTHOMAS H. JAGGER is a Research Associate in the Department of Geography at Florida State University, Room 323, Bellamy Building, 113 Collegiate Loop, PO Box 3062190, Tallahassee, FL 32306. E-mail: thjagger@gmail.com. His research interests include biostatistics, computational statistics, Bayesian statistics, nonparametric statistics, social statistics, theoretical statistics, and geography.