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The Fourth Stage of the Epidemiologic Transition: The Age of Delayed Degenerative Diseases

1986; Wiley; Volume: 64; Issue: 3 Linguagem: Inglês

10.2307/3350025

1468-0009

S. Jay Olshansky, ALICIA AULT,

Global Health Care Issues

Gains in longevity in the United States since the mid-nineteenth century occurred as a result of an epidemiologic transition: deaths from infectious diseases were replaced by deaths from degenerative diseases. Recent trends in cause-specific mortality suggest a distinct new stage, one of postponement of degenerative diseases. Projections based on these data must be applied cautiously; their implication for health and social policies are likely to be profound.