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Modelling the Effects of Immigration on Regional Economic Performance and Wage Distribution: A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Analysis of Three European Union Regions

2012; Routledge; Volume: 48; Issue: 2 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1080/00343404.2011.653332

1360-0591

Konstantinos Pouliakas, Deborah Roberts, Eudokia Balamou, Demetrios Psaltopoulos,

Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth

AbstractPouliakas K., Roberts D., Balamou E. and Psaltopoulos D. Modelling the effects of immigration on regional economic performance and wage distribution: a computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis of three European Union regions, Regional Studies. The paper uses a regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to analyse the effects of immigration on three small remote European Union regions located within Scotland (UK), Greece and Latvia. Two migration scenarios are assessed. In the first, total labour supply is affected. In the second, the importance of migratory flows by differential labour skill types is investigated. The results indicate significant differences in the extent to which regional economies are affected by immigration. They also suggest that remote regions are highly vulnerable to the out-migration of skilled workers (‘brain-drain’), while the in-migration of unskilled workers leads to widening wage inequality.Pouliakas K., Roberts D., Balamou E. and Psaltopoulos D. 移民对区域经济表现及工资分布影响的模型分析：欧盟三个区域的一般可计算均衡分析. 区域研究. 本文使用区域一般可计算均衡模型来分析移民对欧盟三个偏远小区域的影响，这三个区域分别位于苏格兰、希腊和拉脱维亚。本文估算了两种移民情景，首先是劳动力总供给所受到的影响，其次是不同劳动技能类型的移民流动的重要性。结果显示了区域经济受到移民影响程度的明显差异。偏远区域容易受到熟练工人（人才）外流的高度影响，而低技能劳动力流入会造成工资差距的扩大。Pouliakas K., Roberts D., Balamou E. et Psaltopoulos D. La modélisation de l'impact de l'immigration sur la performance économique régionale et l'éventail des salaires: une analyse d'équilibre général calculable (EGC) de trois régions de l'Union européenne, Regional Studies. Cet article se sert d'un modèle régional d'équilibre général calculable (EGC) afin d'analyser l'impact de l'immigration sur trois petites régions isolées de l'Union européenne situées en Écosse (R-U), en Grèce, et en Lettonie. On évalue deux scénarios de migration. Dans le premier cas, la population active totale est touchée. Dans le deuxième cas, on examine l'importance des flux migratoires en fonction de l'écart de main-d'oeuvre qualifiée. Les résultats laissent voir d'importantes différences de la façon dont les économies régionales sont touchées par l'immigration. Ils laissent supposer aussi que les régions isolées sont particulièrement exposées à l'exode des travailleurs qualifiés (la ‘fuite des cerveaux’), tandis que les entrées de travailleurs non-qualifiés entraînent un creusement de l'écart des salaires.Pouliakas K., Roberts D., Balamou E. und Psaltopoulos D. Modellierung der Auswirkungen der Einwanderung auf die regionale Wirtschaftsleistung und Einkommensverteilung: Analyse von drei Regionen der Europäischen Union mit Hilfe eines berechenbaren allgemeinen Gleichgewichtsmodells (CGE), Regional Studies. In diesem Beitrag werden mit Hilfe eines regionalen berechenbaren allgemeinen Gleichgewichtsmodells (CGE) die Auswirkungen der Einwanderung auf drei kleine, abgelegene Regionen der Europäischen Union in Schottland (GB), Griechenland und Lettland analysiert. Untersucht werden zwei Migrationsszenarien. Im ersten ist das Gesamtangebot an Arbeitskräften betroffen. Im zweiten wird die Bedeutung von Migrationsströmen getrennt nach den verschiedenen Arten von Qualifikationen der Arbeitnehmer untersucht. Die Ergebnisse verdeutlichen signifikante Unterschiede hinsichtlich des Ausmaßes, in dem Regionalwirtschaften von Einwanderung betroffen sind. Ebenso lassen die Ergebnisse darauf schließen, dass abgelegene Regionen hochgradig von einer Abwanderung qualifizierter Arbeitnehmer (‘Braindrain’) gefährdet sind, während sich durch die Einwanderung unqualifizierter Arbeitnehmer das Ungleichgewicht beim Lohnniveau verstärkt.Pouliakas K., Roberts D., Balamou E. y Psaltopoulos D. Modelar los efectos de la inmigración en el desempeño económico regional y la distribución de salarios: análisis del equilibrio general computable de tres regiones de la Unión Europea, Regional Studies. Con ayuda de un modelo regional de equilibrio general computable, en este artículo analizamos los efectos de la inmigración en tres pequeñas regiones remotas de la Unión Europea ubicadas en Escocia (RU), Grecia y Letonia. Evaluamos dos casos de migración. En el primero, se ve afectada la oferta total de trabajo. En el segundo, estudiamos la importancia de los flujos migratorios en función de los tipos diferentes de mano de obra cualificada. Los resultados indican diferencias significativas en la medida en que las economías regionales están afectadas por la inmigración. También sugieren que las regiones remotas son muy vulnerables a la emigración de trabajadores cualificados (fuga de cerebros) mientras que la inmigración de trabajadores no cualificados lleva a una creciente desigualdad de salarios.Keywords: ImmigrationComputable general equilibrium (CGE)Wage inequalityBrain-drainRegional economiesKeywords移民可计算均衡模型工资差距人才区域经济KeywordsImmigrationÉquilibre général calculable (EGC)Écart des salairesFuite des cerveauxÉconomies régionalesKeywordsEinwanderungBerechenbares allgemeines Gleichgewicht (CGE)Ungleichgewicht beim LohnniveauBrain-drainRegionalwirtschaftenKeywordsInmigraciónEquilibrio general computableDesigualdad salarialFuga de cerebrosEconomías regionalesJEL classifications: D33D58R13R23 AcknowledgmentsThe paper is based on research carried out as part of the European Union 6th Framework project ‘TERA’ FP6-SSP-2005-006469. The authors are grateful to Euan Phimister and Daina Saktina for their invaluable contribution to the development of the model used in this paper. Useful comments by members of the European Union project TERA; participants at the IMAEF2008 meeting held at the University of Ioannina (Greece); and of members of a seminar at the University of Cyprus are also gratefully acknowledged; as are comments from the anonymous referees. The usual disclaimer applies.Notes1. For example, it is believed that around 0.5 million workers had moved into the UK by late 2006 (Blanchflower et al., Citation2007, p. 1). In a similar spirit, the large net migration from the (mainly) Balkan countries in the 1990s rapidly transformed Greece from one of the most homogenous populations of Europe into a country that now has one of the largest foreign-born/native population ratios in the European Union (at around 10%; OECD, Citation2006).2. More advanced still, given the fact that the three separate regional models are applied simultaneously, the analysis could have embedded the three study area SAMs within a wider system showing explicitly links with each other, the rest of domestic economies and the rest of the world. However, the case for such a model is not as strong as it would be were the emigrants from Latvia the immigrants to Heraklion-Archanes or East Highlands, etc.3. Exogenous labour supply also precludes changes in unemployment levels with wage levels as suggested in wage curve theory. Instead the labour market closure rules assumes wages adjustment so as to ensure full employment of each labour type.4. The analysis was undertaken firstly by assuming that the average factor price is an endogenous variable, while the activity-specific ‘wage distortion’ term is exogenous. Fixed-factor demands were then also allowed for by using extraneous activity-specific employment data disaggregated by skill level. In this case the activity-specific wage-distortion variables vary in order to ensure that the fixed activity-specific employment level is consistent with profit maximization (Lofgren et al., Citation2002, pp. 35–36). No significant changes in the effects of the main simulations were found.5. The model assumes that immigrants have identical purchasing patterns to local households. However, ‘it is likely that immigrants spend a lower fraction of their income when compared to domestic workers, perhaps because they send remittances back home or spend less on durable goods while temporarily resident in the country’ (Blanchflower et al., Citation2007, p. 24). In this case the total GDP effects reported in Table 4 are expected to be lower, ceteris paribus.6. Data limitations have not allowed the explicit integration of this channel into the CGE analysis of this paper.7. In all cases the elasticities were assumed to be randomly drawn from a uniform distribution, with lower and upper boundaries that correspond to –50% and 50%, respectively, of the assumed baseline elasticity values. While the approach avoids the subjective nature of the sensitivity analysis implemented in many CGE applications, it falls short of the type of systematic sensitivity analysis (SSA) as proposed by Harrison and Vinod (Citation1992) and Devuyst and Preckel (Citation1997). This would have provided even greater confidence in the robustness of the modelling results.8. It is acknowledged that the sunk costs and adjustment costs associated with investment can imply a lag between inward migration and increased investment. However, such dynamic links between immigration and capital accumulation cannot be captured by the static CGE model used in this paper.