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The impact of the “novel” influenza A (N1H1) pandemic in Norway, as monitored by recorded fatal cases - end of October 2009

2010; Elsevier BV; Volume: 14; Linguagem: Inglês

10.1016/j.ijid.2010.02.1701

1878-3511

V Hasseltvedt,

Influenza Virus Research Studies

Background: This paper deals the with impact of the pandemic of "novel" influenza A (N1H1), in Norway, as documented by experiences from the end of April 2009 to the end of October 2009, as monitored by recorded fatal cases, during the six months up to October 25, 2009. From the 1980 s the excess mortality from "seasonal flu" has been estimated ranging from 1000 to 1500 cases during the time span of the outbreak. The duration of "seasonal flu", caused by influenza virus A has been estimated to be approximately 10 weeks. The Norwegian projections given by The Directorate of Health, on April 27, 2009 (source- URL: dagsavisen.no) gave a scenario of: up to a possible 13 000 deaths - and up to 1.2 million infections – caused by "novel" influenza virus A (H1N1). Methods: Data on Norway's preparedness and surveillance - available from bodies and sites (URLs) comprise some of the following, The Norwegian Public Health Institute (fhi.no), The Directorate of Health (helsedirektoratet.no) – including the general information given at The Norwegian Governmental Official site - (pandemi.no). The projections and scenarios given by these governmental bodies have been compared with data from Norwegian sources – as well as from - promedmail.org and WHO data, as of October 25, 2009 - from who.int/csr. Results: From the end of April 2009 to the end October 25, 2009 13 deaths were recorded. Many of these individuals had predisposing illnesses/ conditions, which may have contributed to a fatal outcome. The known impact has been 13 recorded deaths, so far, - not 13 000 deaths - i.e. one thousandth – in contrast to the worst-case scenario. Conclusion: The documentation above highlights uncertainties concerning projections made in an early epidemic/pandemic phase. It also might give reasons for caution – when extrapolating small data sets – in order to give short/intermediate term projections, to health professionals, as well as to the public in general. Abstracts for SupplementInternational Journal of Infectious DiseasesVol. 14Preview Full-Text PDF Open Archive