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Europe and America in the age of Bush

2005; Taylor & Francis; Volume: 47; Issue: 1 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1080/00396330500061786

1468-2699

Marta Dassù, Roberto Menotti †,

European and Russian Geopolitical Military Strategies

Abstract George W. Bush won the November 2004 US elections against the overwhelming sentiment of Europe's citizenry. In theory, this could reinforce the sense of alienation across the Atlantic, pushing Europe increasingly to define itself in opposition to America. In practice, Bush's second term offers the chance of a transatlantic new deal: a more pragmatic relationship, based upon a reassessment of common interests in the post-bipolar world. Such a new deal would require Washington once more to embrace the assumption that European unity is in the American national interest. It would also require the European Union to concentrate on managing security in and around the European space, being ready and able to use military force as necessary. America would take the lead elsewhere, with Europeans offering military and other support where they could achieve a European consensus for action. Notes Roberto Menotti is Research Fellow in the International Programs at Aspen Institute Italia and Editorial Consultant for Aspenia. He has lectured in international relations and security studies, and has authored, most recently a book on international security after 11 September, Ventunesimo secolo: fine della sicurezza? (Rome: Laterza, 2003). This essay was written for an IISS project on transatlantic relations, with generous support from the Robert Bosch Foundation. Marta Dassù is Director General of International Programs at Aspen Institute Italia and Editor of the quarterly Aspenia. She was foreign policy adviser to the Italian Prime Minister from 1998 to 2001. Marta Dassù is Director General of International Programs at Aspen Institute Italia and Editor of the quarterly Aspenia. She was foreign policy adviser to the Italian Prime Minister from 1998 to 2001. The expression is borrowed from Mitchell B. Reiss, Director of Policy Planning at the US Department of State, ‘Revitalizing Transatlantic Relations: Bridging the Divide’, Remarks to the German Council for Foreign Relations, Berlin, 11 May 2004. Tim Garton Ash, for example, argued along these lines in a 11 November 2004 speech at the New York Council on Foreign Relations, http://www.cfr.org. See ‘Renewing the Atlantic partnership’, a report of the independent task force sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations, March 2004, http://www.cfr.org/pdf/Europe. Steve Everts, ‘The ultimate test case: Can Europe and America forge a joint strategy for the wider Middle East’, International Affairs, vol. 80, no. 4, 2004. See Tim Garton Ash, Free World: why the crisis of the West reveals the opportunity of our time (London: Allen Lane, 2004). Eurobarometer Survey 62, 13 December 2004, http://europa.eu.int/comm/public_opinion/archives/eb/eb62/eb62first_en.pdf. Given the significant rise of the trend since spring 2004 (five points more), these results can also be explained by the integration of the favorable opinion expressed in the new Members of the Union. The specific question was: are you in favour or against a common foreign policy among the member states of the UE, towards other countries? German Marshall Fund of the United States and Compagnia di San Paolo, Transatlantic Trends 2004, www.gmfus.org, http://www.transatlantictrends.org/ See Helen Wallace and David Andrews, ‘Mending the Transatlantic Relationship’, contribution to the Hellenic EU Presidency 2003, www.eu2003.gr/en/articles/2003/5/1/2634/. See also the argument made by Robert Kagan in the latest afterword to Of Paradise and Power: America and Europe in the New World Order, (New York: Vintage, 2004). According to Transatlantic Trends 2004, 50% of Europeans believe the EU should take a more independent approach in security and diplomatic affairs. Majorities in the UK and Poland want the EU and the US to become closer, with Spain evenly divided. Majorities in other countries support a more independent EU approach. At the same time, confidence in the EU's international role has risen slightly: 61% believe that the EU plays a positive role in promoting world peace and 59% approve of the EU's role in the fight against terrorism. Opinions are most positive in some of the new members and slightly more critical in Austria and the UK, but especially in Italy, where less than one respondent in two has a favourable view of the role played by the EU in these two areas. (Italy, on the other hand, shows high levels of support both for ESDP, 79%, and common foreign policy, 72%). Only 30% of Europeans, according to Transatlantic Trends 2004, support an EU superpower in order to compete with the US. Transatlantic Trends 2004. 71% of Europeans believe the EU should become a superpower like the US; however, if superpower status required greater military spending, 47% of Europeans would withdraw their support. Eurobarometer Survey 62, 13 December 2004. Transatlantic Trends 2004. See ‘Renewing the Atlantic Relationship’, p.7 See ‘Renewing the Atlantic Relationship’, p.7 The Pew Research Center, March 2004, June 2004, http://www.publicdiplomacy.org/14.htm#March2004 and http://www.publicdiplomacy.org/14.htm#June2004. See for example Michael Lind, Financial Times, 23 August 2004, p.13 for a harsh criticism of the growing differentiation thesis, supported – from opposite viewpoints – by Robert Kagan and Jeremy Rifkin. Transatlantic Trends, 2004. Analysing differences over domestic politics, the report of an independent task-force sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations, states that ‘the duty of statesmen is to provide a framework in which these differences are understood rather then uses, as has been the case too frequently in recent years, to demonstrate longterm incompatibility’. See Renewing the Atlantic Partnership. A partial exception is probably the Bush administration's decision to favour the British-Italian Agusta- Westland over American company Sikorsky, in January, for the procurement of a new helicopter. But a single defence contract, however lucrative, still does not match the political costs and risks sustained to support American policies in Iraq. The recent report by a task force chaired by Mary Kaldor offers a sort of focal point for such a scenario, defining a ‘human security doctrine’ for Europe and taking a selective approach to the priorities outlined in the ESS. A Human Security Doctrine for Europe. The Barcelona Report of the Study Group on Europe's Security Capabilities, Barcelona, 15 September 2004. Strategic enablers in the military field have long been identified by the EU (initially in the so-called ECAP process), and include airlift and sealift, intelligence (satellite, ElInt and SigInt), plus surveillance, target acquisition and reconnaissance. These are crucial to both peace support and high intensity/combat operations if selfsustainability is the goal. The current head of the EU Military Committee, General Gustav Hagglund, recently made a suggestion that points precisely in this direction. Reuters, 18 January 2004, ‘Time Europe Defended Itself – EU Military Official’. See, for example, Giuliano Amato, Ralf Dahrendorf and Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, ‘Letter from Europe: Dear President Bush’, International Herald Tribune, 15 December 2004. See, among others, Charles Grant ‘Manifesto for Optimists’, Prospect, December 2004, also on www.cer.org.uk. François Heisbourg in Steven Everts et al., A European way of war, pamphlet published by the Centre for European Reform, London, 2004, pp. 38–39. Additional informationNotes on contributorsMarta Dassù Footnote* Roberto Menotti is Research Fellow in the International Programs at Aspen Institute Italia and Editorial Consultant for Aspenia. He has lectured in international relations and security studies, and has authored, most recently a book on international security after 11 September, Ventunesimo secolo: fine della sicurezza? (Rome: Laterza, 2003). This essay was written for an IISS project on transatlantic relations, with generous support from the Robert Bosch Foundation. Marta Dassù is Director General of International Programs at Aspen Institute Italia and Editor of the quarterly Aspenia. She was foreign policy adviser to the Italian Prime Minister from 1998 to 2001.