Latin American autogolpes : Dangerous undertows in the third wave of democratisation
1998; Taylor & Francis; Volume: 19; Issue: 2 Linguagem: Inglês
10.1080/01436599814433
ISSN1360-2241
Autores Tópico(s)Political and Social Dynamics in Chile and Latin America
ResumoABSTRACT Whereas Peru's President Alberto Fujimori was rewarded with re-election after he suspended the constitution and dissolved congress in April 1992, Guatemalan President Jorge Serrano's efforts in May 1993 to emulate Fujimori led to an ignomious exile. Similar events led to presidential self-coups in both countries, yet the outcomes were markedly different. In both countries the outsider presidents who were elected in 1990 adopted a personal and dictatorial style of rule; both presidents faced opposition to their economic austerity measures; and, in both countries, relations between the executive, legislature and judiciary were tense. The difference in outcomes cannot be explained by these common factors; instead, different outcomes can be attributed to levels of threat perception. The higher level of perception of threat in Peru was caused by the existence of the Shining Path revolutionary organisation, whereas in Guatemala the rebels had been all but defeated. This crucial difference affected public perceptions of the autogolpes, the unity of the armed forces and the strength of the international reaction. Moreover, the perception of threat was deliberately exaggerated by the Peruvian authorities, thereby justifying wider executive powers and a pattern of greater abuses following the self-coup. The failure of Serrano's efforts, thanks largely to the lower level of threat perception, had the reverse effect: democracy and the rule of law were strengthened.
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