Portal de Periódicos da CAPES

Judgmental adjustment of forecasts: A comparison of methods

1992; Elsevier BV; Volume: 7; Issue: 4 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1016/0169-2070(92)90027-7

1872-8200

Benito E. Flores, David L. Olson, Chris Wolfe,

Optimization and Mathematical Programming

Attention has recently been given to combinations of subjective and objective forecasts to improve forecast accuracy. This research offers an extension on this theme by comparing two methods that can be used to adjust an objective forecast. Wolfe and Flores (1990) show that ARIMA forecasts can be judgmentally adjusted by analysts using a structured approach based on Saaty's analytic hierarchy process (AHP). In this study, the centroid method is introduced as a vehicle for forecast adjustment and is compared to the AHP. While the AHP allows for finer tuning in reflecting decision maker judgement, the centroid method produces very similar results and is much simpler to use in the forecast adjustment process.