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A Forecast Product that Maximizes Utility for State–of–the–Art Seasonal Climate Prediction

2000; American Meteorological Society; Volume: 81; Issue: 6 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1175/1520-0477(2000)081 2.3.co;2

1520-0477

Anthony G. Barnston, Yuxiang He, David A. Unger,

Energy Load and Power Forecasting

Abstract The prediction of seasonal climate anomalies at useful lead times often involves an unfavorable signal—to—noise ratio. The forecasts, while consequently tending to have modest skill, nonetheless have significant utility when packaged in ways to which users can relate and respond appropriately. This paper presents a reasonable but unprecedented manner in which to issue seasonal climate forecasts and illustrates how implied tilts of the odds of the forecasted climate may be used beneficially by technical as well as nontechnical clients.