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International growth and volatility in historical perspective

2005; Taylor & Francis; Volume: 12; Issue: 2 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1080/1350485042000314361

1466-4291

Mark V. Siegler,

Global Financial Crisis and Policies

Abstract This paper studies the relationship between the volatility and growth of real GDP using a newly constructed panel data set from twelve countries over the 1870 to 1929 period. In addition, many other variables are examined that are related to economic growth. The goal has been to uncover robust empirical regularities on this issue for the period prior to the Great Depression – a period which has been relatively neglected in previous empirical work. The main finding is that there is a robust negative partial correlation between volatility and growth, after controlling for other factors. This result is consistent with recent empirical evidence on the post-World War II period. Acknowledgements Previous versions of this paper were presented at the Western Economic Association International Conference, the University of California, Davis, Bates College, and California State University, Sacramento, and I am grateful to participants for their comments and suggestions. I would especially like to thank David Aschauer, Kevin Hoover, David Lang, Peter Lindert, Margaret Maurer-Fazio, Stephen Perez, Alan Taylor, and two anonymous referees, although any errors and omissions are my own.