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The nature and impact of climate change in the Challenge Program on Water and Food (CPWF) basins

2011; Taylor & Francis; Volume: 36; Issue: 1 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1080/02508060.2011.543408

1941-1707

Mark Mulligan, Myles Fisher, Bharat R. Sharma, Zhixing Xu, Claudia Ringler, Gil Mahé, Andy Jarvis, Julian Ramírez, Jean-Charles Clanet, Andrew Ogilvie, Mobin‐ud‐Din Ahmad,

Climate change impacts on agriculture

Abstract In this article the authors assess the potential impacts of projected climate change on water, livelihoods and food security in the Basin Focal Projet basins. The authors consider expected change within the context of recently observed climate variability in the basins to better understand the potential impact of expected change and the options available for adaptation. They use multi-global circulation model climate projections for the AR4 SRES A2a scenario, downscaled and extracted for each basin. They find significant differences in the impacts (both positive and negative impacts) of climate change, between and within basins, but also find large-scale uncertainty between climate models in the impact that is projected. Keywords: water resourceswater usemega-basinsclimatespatial analysis Acknowledgements We acknowledge the Challenge Program on Water and Food for their funding of the individual basin focal projects. We also thank the CPWF BFP team and anonymous reviewers for their comments, which much improved this paper. Notes 1. WEAP = water evaluation and assessment planning; SWAT = soil and water assessment tool; FIESTA = fog interception for the enhancement of streamflow in tropical areas. 2. Data were not available for analysis of the Indus Basin, so we show only historic, present and multi-GCM results for the Ganges. 3. Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Norway, BCM2.0 Model; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Coupled Global Climate Model 2; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, CGCM3.1 Model, T47 resolution; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, CGCM3.1 Model, T63 resolution; Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, Meteo France, France, CNRM-CM3; Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization Atmospheric Research (CSIRO), Australia, Mk3.0 Model; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory CM2.0 Model; NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, CM2.1 Model; Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Atmosphere-Ocean model; Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction, Meteorological Office, UK, HadCM3 Model; Institut Pierre Simon Laplace/Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique/Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (IPSL/LMD/LSCE), France, CM4 V1 Model; Center for Climate System Research/National Institute for Environmental Studies/Frontier Research Center for Global Change (CCSR/NIES/FRCGC), Japan, MIROC3.2, high resolution; CCSR/NIES/FRCGC, Japan, MIROC3.2, medium resolution; Meteorological Institute of the University of Bonn, ECHO-G Model; Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany, ECHAM5/MPI OM; Meteorological Research Institute, Japan, CGCM2.3.2a; National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), USA, PCM1.