Portal de Periódicos da CAPES

Libya's Revolution

2011; Taylor & Francis; Volume: 16; Issue: 4 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1080/13629387.2011.630880

1743-9345

Alia Brahimi,

Global Political and Social Dynamics

Abstract Mu'ammar al-Qadhafi's Libya was always supposed to be about people power. There was some irony, therefore, in the fact that the Qadhafi regime was brought to the brink of collapse by the sort of popular grassroots politics that the Libyan leader himself had rhetorically championed. Indeed, unlike the situation in Tunisia and Egypt, the Libyan rebellion appears to have resulted in a wholesale revolution. It was also more prolonged, and more violent. This paper explores three over-lapping factors to account for the difference between Libya and its neighbours. Firstly, the intense personalisation of politics in Libya ensured that, for the hardships and humiliations of the previous four decades, the buck stopped with Colonel Qadhafi himself. At the same time, the methodology of his long rule allowed for no chinks in the regime's armour – it had to be hegemony, or bust. Secondly, the fact that the colonel was able to adopt an iron-fisted approach to the demonstrators was linked, in important ways, to the tribal dynamics of his 'stateless state' – particularly those which underlay the security services. Finally, a pre-existing geographical tradition of resistance to centralised authority enabled the rebellion to develop as a credible force and sustain itself for six months, despite military setbacks. When the chips were down, Colonel Qadhafi could fall back on a small but robust network of (divided) tribal alliances, (divided) militias, (divided) regions and a (divided) family competing for his favour. Yet the divisions which he cultivated also provided succour to the millions of people who wished to oust him. The greatest challenge ahead for their representatives is to do away with informal spheres of power in Libya and to bring the political process out into the open. Keywords: LibyaMu'ammar al-QadhafiLibyan RevolutionArab SpringFebruary 17National Transitional CouncilLibyan Islamic Fighting Group Notes 'After Gaddafi, Newsweek, 27 February 2011. Al Zahf Al-Akhdar, 19 February 2011. Hala Jaber and Tony Allen-Mills, 'Gadaffi's Bloody Finale Looms', Sunday Times, 27 February Citation2011. 'Security Council Approves No-fly Zone over Libya, Authorising "All Necessary Measures" to Protect Civilians, By Vote of 10 in Favour with 5 Abstentions', 17 March Citation2011, at http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2011/sc10200.doc.htm [accessed 18 March 2011]. Helene Mulholland, 'Libya Intervention: British Forces Played Key role Says Cameron', Guardian, 2 September Citation2011. Questions about the legitimacy of actively aiming at regime change were brought to the fore when nine civilians were killed by a NATO airstrike in Tripoli on 19 June 2011. While the British and French governments interpreted the mandate as allowing the aerial bombardment of infrastructure and command-and-control centres, the head of the Arab League insisted that the mandate was more limited and was not about bringing down the Qadhafi regime. 'The situation has gone beyond what was expected', Amr Moussa ventured in Cairo. 'It is only natural that we speed up the search for a political solution and achieving a cease-fire' ('Nato Cites Errant Missle in Libya Civilians Deaths', MSNBC, at http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43454221/ns/world_news-mideast_n_africa/t/nato-cites-errant-missile-libya-civilian-deaths/ [accessed 19 June 2011]). The South African President, whose UN envoy had voted in favour of the resolution, also subsequently spoke out 'against the misuse of the good intentions in Resolution 1973… We strongly believe that the resolution is being abused for regime change, political assassinations and foreign military occupation' (Nick Meo, 'Libya: Jacob Zuma Accuses Nato of Not Sticking to UN Resolution', Daily Telegraph, 14 June Citation2011). For details of the plot, which involved the arrival in Tripoli of infiltrators by fishing trawler and top-secret regime information gathered by a caterer, see Samia Nakhoul, 'Special Report: The Secret Plan to Take Tripoli', Reuters, 6 September Citation2011. For example, Richard Spencer, 'Civil War Breaks Out as Gaddafi Mounts Rearguard Fight', Telegraph, 23 February Citation2011; Laurence Lee, 'Libya Fighting Resembles Civil War', Al Jazeera, 7 March Citation2011. James M. Dorsey, 'Libya at the Crossroads: A MidEast Model or Revolution gone Awry?', Eurasia Review, 22 August 2011. George Joffé, 'Prodigal or Pariah: Foreign Policy in Libya', p. 17. John Hamilton, 'Libya Protests: The Tangled Web Keeping Gaddafi in Power', Telegraph, 23 February Citation2011. George Joffé, 'The Role of Tribalism in Contemporary Libya', p. 3. Ronald Bruce St John, Libya: From Colony to Independence (Oxford: Oneworld publications, Citation2008), p. 170. Joffé, 'Prodigal or Pariah', p. 9. Lisa Anderson, 'Qadhdhafi and His Opposition', Middle East Journal, 40:2, Spring 1986, p. 228. Dirk Vandewalle, A History of Modern Libya (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, Citation2006), p. 129. Vandewalle, A History of Modern Libya, p. 137. Ibid. St John, Libya, pp. 246–249. Lisa Anderson, 'Religion and State in Libya: The Politics of Identity', Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 483, January, p. 68. John Hamilton and Jon Marks, Africa Energy Special Report: Libya's Energy Future, report for Cross-border Information, 2010/2011, p. 6. John Wright, Libya: A Modern History (London: Croom Helm, Citation1982), p. 276. 'Interview with the Spokesperson for the Fighting Islamic Group in Libya – Brother Omar Rasheed', first published in Nida'ul Islam, April-May Citation1999, available online at http://www.fas.org/irp/world/para/docs/fig-interview.htm [accessed 7 May 2010]. 'Anti-government protests spread to Libya', Times of India, 16 February Citation2011. Lisa Anderson, 'Qadhdhafi and His Opposition', p. 226. St John, Libya, p. 228. Interview with Fathi Terbil, Al-Arabiya TV, 1 March Citation2011. 'You people of Zawiya, stop your children, take their weapons, bring them away from bin Laden, the pills will kill them'. Speaking by telephone to Libyan State Television, 24 February 2011. Vandewalle, A History of Modern Libya, p. 103. Mansour O. El-Kikhia, Libya's Qaddafi: The Politics of Contradiction (Gainesville: University Press of Florida, Citation1997), p. 45. E. E. Evans-Pritchard, The Sanusi of Cyrenaica (Oxford: Clarendon Press, Citation1948), p. 4. Ibid, p. 10. Ali Abdullatif Ahmida, The Making of Modern Libya: State Formation, Colonization, and Resistance (Albany: SUNY Press, Citation2009), p. 93. Vandewalle, A History of Modern Libya, p. 68. Vandewalle, A History of Modern Libya, p. 2. George Joffé, 'Libya: Past and Future?, Al Jazeera, 24 February Citation2011. Waniss Otman and Erling Karlberg, The Libyan Economy: Economic Diversification and International Repositioning (Berlin: Springer, Citation2007), p. 21. George Joffé, 'The Role of Tribalism in Contemporary Libya', p. 6. 'We, the Popular Social Leadership of Libya, recommend to the armed forces to announce an immediate cease-fire to all military units' in 'Marines on Standby as Rebels Fear Chemical Weapons Attack', The Express, 21 March Citation2011. A previous call for ceasefire by the regime on March 18 was determined to have been breached by pro-Qadhafi forces within hours. For a detailed account of this incident, see Joffé, 'The Role of Tribalism in Contemporary Libya', pp. 30–32. 'Declaration by the Warfalla Tribal Elders', 21 February 2011. The declaration justifies it former support of Qadhafi on Islamic lines, stating that it was 'a moral alliance of mutual assistance and defense of the oppressed, like the Hilf al-Fudul that the Prophet [entered into]'. The Hilf al-Fudul was a 'confederation of the virtuous' which some Meccan clans initially entered into to help a Yemeni recover a debt, and it eventually evolved into an alliance to help people right injustices against them. The statement similarly uses Islamic moral and legal ethics to denounce the regime as an enemy of God which massacres its own people. Richard Woods, 'Urban Life and Intermarriage undermine the Colonel's Base', Sunday Times, 27 March Citation2011. Maria Golovnina, 'Gaddafi Bastion Gunmen Stubborn as Town Suffers', Reuters, 7 September Citation2011. National Transitional Council spokesman Nisan Gouriani in 'Libyan Rebels Form Interim Government', Al Jazeera, 22 March 2011. Vandewalle, A History of Modern Libya, p. 149. Yahia Zoubir, 'Libya, Radical Islamism and the Global War on Terror', p. 6. Alison Pargeter, 'Localism and Radicalization in North Africa: Local factors and the Development of Political Islam in Morocco, Tunisia and Libya', International Affairs, 85:5, 2009, p. 1036. Quoted in Yehudit Ronen, 'Qadhafi and Militant Islamism: Unprecedented Conflict', Middle Eastern Studies, 38:4, October 2002, p. 2. George Joffé, 'Islamic Opposition in Libya', Third World Quarterly, 10:2, 1988, p. 629. John Esposito, Islam and Politics (Syracuse: Syracuse University Press, Citation1991), pp. 165–166. 'Gaddafi Faces Wave of Popular Disquiet', The Guardian, 7 February Citation1989. St John, Libya, pp. 221–222. Francois Burgat and William Dowell, The Islamic Movement in North Africa (Austin: University of Texas, Citation1993), p. 162. Peter Millership and Edmund Blair, 'Gaddafi Says Protesters are on Hallucinogenic Drugs', Reuters, 24 February Citation2011. Speech at Bab al-Aziziya broadcast on Libyan State Television on 22 February 2011. 'Colonel Gaddafi: "Heretics" Should be "Killed Like Dogs"', Hobart Mercury, 4 May Citation1993. Luis Martinez, The Libyan Paradox (London: Hurst & Co., Citation2007), p. 57. Ray Takeyh, 'Qadhafi and the Challenge of Militant Islam, The Washington Quarterly, 21:3, Summer 1998, p. 159. Camille al-Tawil, Brothers in Arms: the Story of Al-Qa'ida and the Arab Jihadists (London: Saqi Books, Citation2010), p. 139. 'Gaddafi is trying to divide the people. He claims there is an Islamist emirate in Derna and that I am its emir. He is taking advantage of the fact that I am a former political prisoner'. Quoted in Ian Black, 'Libya: Leader Plays on Fears of al-Qaida Terror in Bid to Win Back Support', Gaurdian, 2 March Citation2011. Camille al-Tawil, 'The Changing Face of the Jihadist Movement in Libya', Terrorism Monitor, 7:1, 9 January 2009, at http://www.jamestown.org/programs/gta/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=34322&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=412&no_cache=1 [accessed 12 July 2010]. Pargeter, 'Localism and Radicalisation in North Africa', p. 1032. Ten people died in the clashes, which targeted the Italian Consulate in Benghazi. Italian Minister Roberto Calderoli had worn a t-shirt displaying the cartoons. Ben Hubbard, 'Leaders of Libya's Rebellion Once Sought Change inside Gadhafi Regime through his Son', Associated Press, 11 April Citation2011. Al-Alagi appears to have been a board member of the NGO chaired by Saif al-Islam, the Gaddafi International Charity and Development Foundation. See for example Elisabeth Rosenthal, 'A Son Radiates His Own Light in His Father's Libya', New York Times, 23 September Citation2007, p. 3; Elise Labott, 'Rice, Gadhafi's Son to Meet', CNN, 17 November Citation2008; Sara Hashash and Hala Jaber, 'Saif al-Islam Muammar al-Gaddafi: The Future of Libya', Sunday Times, 26 June Citation2010. 'Gaddafi's Son Warns of "Rivers of Blood" in Libya', Al-Arabiya, 21 February Citation2011. In November 2010, a newspaper associated with Saif al-Islam (Oea) was suspended for printing an article which criticised the government. Shortly thereafter, at least 20 journalists allied to Saif al-Islam's 'Libya Press' group were rounded up and detained by the regime. Author conversations with reformists in Libya indicated a widespread belief that Saif al-Islam's reform agenda had been successfully stopped in its tracks by the old guard. In mid-December 2010, the NGO chaired by Saif al-Islam, the Gaddafi International Charity and Development Foundation, announced that it would no longer advocate for human rights and political reform in Libya and instead "refocus on its core competencies, including charitable work, human development, and provision of services primarily in sub-Saharan Africa particularly in areas of education and alternative energy". See 'Resolutions of the Board of Trustees of the GICDF', 14–15 December Citation2010, at http://www.gicdf.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=403:resolutions-of-the-board-of-trustees-of-the-gaddafi-international-charity-and-development-foundation-annual-meeting-london-uk-14-15-december-2010&catid=3:thenews&Itemid=55 [accessed 7 January 2011]. Rod Nordland, 'In Libya, Former Enemy is Recast in Role of Ally', New York Times, 1 September Citation2011. Christophe Ayad, 'M. Belhaj: "Nous Nous voulons un Etat civil en Libye. Nous ne sommes pas d'Al-Qaida"', Le Monde Diplomatique, 4 September Citation2011. Commander Khalifa Hiftar on Al-Arabiya TV, 28 August 2011. Certainly, some of the fiercest fighting in the early stages of the uprising took place in Zawiya, Zuwara and Misrata, and sporadic clashes also erupted in Tripoli. Furthermore, 65 Tripoli-based army officers, who had been secretly supplied with NATO radiophones, were crucial to the eventual taking of the capital in August 2011. In a 70-minute speech from the ruins at Bab al-Aziziya on 22 February, Qadhafi invoked a range of grisly precedents for how he would deal with the protesters: the Tiananman Square massacre, the US Siege of Fallujah, Yeltsin's bombardment of the Russian parliament and the US Waco massacre. Later, as his forces seemed to be closing in on Benghazi, he warned residents there that he would show 'no mercy' to 'those traitors' – 'Libyan Leader Mu'ammar Gaddafi Addresses Residents in Eastern City of Benghazi', Al Jazeera Television, 17 March 2011. Salah Ali in Golovnina, 'Gaddafi Bastion Gunmen Stubborn', op cit.