Numerical weather prediction
1975; Wiley; Volume: 13; Issue: 3 Linguagem: Inglês
10.1029/rg013i003p00681
ISSN8755-1209
Autores Tópico(s)Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
ResumoVarious numerical models are in use for prediction of the large‐scale motions of the atmosphere for operational or research purposes, and all seem to have comparable skill for several days, as shown by Druyan [1974] in a comparison of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) [ Somerville et al. , 1974] model forecasts with those at the National Meteorological Center (NMC) [ Shuman and Hovermale , 1968], the Fleet Numerical Weather Central (FNWC) [ Kesel and Winninghoff , 1972], and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) [ Miyakoda et al. , 1972]. There have also been many models developed for treating limited areas with higher resolution, as described in a paper by Chen and Miyakoda [1974], in which many references to such models may be found. The principal topics of this review, however, will be the recent research on the question of the theoretical predictability of the large‐scale motions of the atmosphere, on the design of a global observing and data assimilation system, and on the development of statistical‐dynamical forecasting models. These all relate to the first objective of the Global Atmospheric Research Program (Garp), namely, increasing the accuracy of forecasting over periods of 1 day to several weeks.
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